$CRCL: Where David Prince Is a Buyer Again + Other Names He Likes
Circle (CRCL) has been on an incredible run since its IPO three weeks ago. David Prince and the Inner Circle VTF® have been trading the name on both the short and long side this week. David discusses where he would be a buyer again and where this stock is headed: David also covers: Why he’s still long Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Why he likes Cava (CAVA) as a longterm investment The other names he’s watching for pullbacks And more Sign up for David’s free weekly newsletter, The Pulse, here.
Continue Reading -->This Trashy Stock Could Go Up 40%+
Sami Abusaad has been very bullish – but the trend is starting to weaken. See what he means here: Sami goes over: The importance of the 20 and 200 day moving averages on the SPY daily chart Why IWM is key right now What could make Sami bullish all over again The importance of Monday’s action 4 ideas he likes right now A pharmaceutical name with a strong daily and weak monthly chart A “trashy” stock that could go up 40%+ 5 stocks that look set to drop hard And more!
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – SUPER SPEC SLOWDOWN EDITION!
What a week! Here’s what happened: The FOMC left rates unchanged President Trump demanded rate cuts… again FOMC board member Christopher Waller echoed Trump by saying we should get rate cuts as soon as July We got lousy economic data including misses on retail sales and industrial production There were shocking rallies in select growth stocks Super-speculative stocks slowed down The Israel-Iran conflict had the world on edge And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. The Super-Duper Spec Rally Is Slowing We fired up our scanner to look for stocks with these attributes: Revenues below $100 million Market Cap over $2.5 billion So forget about profits – these companies barely have any sales. The results were pretty wild. We came up with 23 stocks led by: NuScale Power (SMR): +167% Quantum Computing (QUBT): +142% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): 107% (numbers are as of Friday June 20 at 1:06 am ET) And the average return this quarter is 47%. Yes, 47%. But over the last week, they are down an average of -0.2%. Just look at the right column in this table – there’s a lotta red in there. So if you’ve been waiting for a slowdown in the wild ones, it may be here. 2. Next Week Will Be a Doozy… Markets are supposed to be sleepy in summer… but look at next week’s calendar. It’s jam-packed: We have: Multiple Fed heads including Powell speaking Tons of key economic data reports including PCE Price Index, GDP, and Durable Goods Earnings from Fedex (FDX), Micron (MU), and Nike (NKE) And that’s on top of whatever headlines come out of the trade war and Middle East. 3. The Odds Don’t Favor a July Rate Cut… YET As of Friday afternoon, the CME’s FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 14.5% probability of a July rate cut: So Trump and Waller’s calls for cuts aren’t making a dent… yet. If we get a wave of lousy economic data next week – especially a light PCE Price Index number – perhaps the odds start shifting. 4. CoreWeave Might Be the Most Crowded Short in the Market For weeks, we’ve yammered on Twitter/X about the Put Skew in CoreWeave (CRWV) options. As you can see on this options chain, the implied volatility on CoreWeave puts is basically double that of calls. So traders are paying way more for CoreWeave puts than calls. And what does that mean? Everyone is betting against CoreWeave. With so many people on one side of the trade, don’t be shocked if CoreWeave just keeps rallying: 5. Sentiment Remains Weak The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.2% of investors are bullish. This is off lows from earlier this year, as you can see on the chart: But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors were bullish. Let’s just remember that it’s awfully tricky to turn sentiment numbers into actionable information for our trades. But nonetheless, it’s a sign that many investors still distrust the market. And it’s healthy because it means there’s little euphoria in this market. 6. ARKK Is on FIRE Did you notice that Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up 75% from the April lows? How’d this happen? Good old-fashioned stock picking. ARKK’s biggest positions include Tesla (TSLA), Coinbase (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Roku (ROKU), and Tempus AI (TEM) — all of which are up huge off the April lows. And if we take a longer-term look, ARKK is +19% YTD and +56% over the last 12 months, crushing the SPY. Well done Cathie! 7. Gold Failed Last week we discussed the possibility of gold powering through $3,450 resistance. Did it happen? No. Gold saw profit-taking this week, even with high uncertainty around the Middle East and on trade. But with the way the world is going, it should be on your radar. And on a related note: 8. Uranium Might Fill the Gap The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) has been an absolute monster this year because of supply-demand dynamics, including AI driving growth for more nuclear power. URA gapped up on June 16 on President Trump’s executive order to support the domestic uranium industry. However, it’s now filling that gap: Let’s keep things in perspective. URA is up 38% this year, so profit taking shouldn’t surprise us. Still, uranium bulls don’t want it filling that gap. 9. Homebuilding Stocks Are a Mystery Is it time to go bottom fishing in homebuilding stocks? After all, housing demand is soft and supply is building. But then we look at this 5-year chart of SPY vs. the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB). And we find that the homebuilders are roughly on par with the overall market: It feels like there’s no edge here. Yes, these stocks are well off the highs, but they’re also not down so much as to be obvious bargains. Maybe we’ll get a signal from KB Homes (KBH), which reports earnings after the close Monday. 10. Candlesticks Can Fail You The T3 house was built on a foundation of technical analysis. Especially candlestick analysis. But JR Romero argues that candlesticks can fail you. Learn how and why in this extended lesson:
Continue Reading -->How I Size Options Positions Based on the #1 Question I Always Ask Myself
Editor’s Note: this article was originally sent to Power Plays Options Subscribers. We are publishing it here as a gift for the T3 Live community. One of the most common questions options traders have is “how big should I size my positions?” And that’s a good thing because position sizing is critical to your options trading results. Get it wrong, and be ready to see your account head to $0. Get it right, and you’ll be on the road to long-term success. So I wanted to give Power Plays Options subscribers a primer on how I think about sizing. The #1 Question I Ask Myself I use options because they offer high upside potential with fixed downside risk. Note: some options strategies like shorting naked calls carry theoretically unlimited downside risk, but Power Plays Options does not use those strategies. When I put an options trade on, I ask myself “what am I willing to lose?” Yes, I want to make money. But focusing on what I can lose stops me from getting carried away when I have a strong opinion on a stock or ETF. For example, in early June, I was very bullish on IWM, and we had a nice trade on IWM calls. But even though I liked IWM, I wasn’t willing to risk $100,000 on an options position. Because sometimes, no matter how hard we work and prepare, things don’t go our way. How I Size Options Positions Generally speaking, I’m willing to risk 2-3% of my options account on an individual idea. So on a $100,000 account, I’d put $2,000 to $3,000 into each trade. This way, if I take a few losses in a row, my overall account won’t be depleted. If I was risking 10% of my account per trade and had 3-4 straight losses, that would deplete 2 things: Account Capital: When you lose 30%, you have to gain 43% to get to breakeven. And if you lose 50%, you have to double your account to get back to where you were. Psychological Capital: Major drawdowns hurt your confidence and ability to make good decisions. You may be tempted to revenge trade, which would probably cost you even more money. At the same time, I’m looking to gain over 100%+ on each options trade. So as long as I maintain a decent batting average, my P&L has the potential to move up nicely. Position Sizing for New Traders If you’re new to Power Plays Options, I want you to start small – even if you’re an experienced pro with a $1 million+ account. I said above that I’m willing to risk 2-3% of my options account on an individual idea. But I may go even smaller if I’m trying out a new strategy, or working with a stock I don’t know particularly well. It’s okay to buy just one option contract while you get your feet wet. Buying multiple contracts gives you more flexibility for taking partial profits. But if you take a long-term view of your trading (which I hope you do), it’s better to start small and gradually take more risk as you feel comfortable. Starting small also helps you figure out your psychological limits. If risking 3% on a trade keeps you up at night, then you know it’s too much for you. And if you risk so little that you don’t even care about a trade, then you’re going too small. It might take you a little time to figure out the right balance for you. When Winning Is a Bad Thing Sometimes, the worst thing that can happen to a trader is making too much money too fast. Yes, it sounds counterintuitive. But imagine you have a $50,000 account. You put it all into one trade and double your money. You’ll be happy in the moment. But you’ll also have a warped sense of how risk and reward work – and you’d probably blow out your account from taking too much risk on your next few trades. It’s okay to shoot for big rewards. But remember that you can’t get those rewards without taking a certain level of risk. So to wrap this up: Always Know What You’re Willing to Lose Start With Small Positions, Even If They Feel Too Small Build Your Risk Tolerance Slowly And I’d recommend you follow these steps in any trading program you join, whether it’s Power Plays Options or anything else.
Continue Reading -->How Candlestick Patterns Fail Active Traders – and What to Do About It
JR Romero was a late adopter of candlestick analysis. And in this in-depth lesson, he shows you how and why candlestick patterns fail – and what you can do about it. JR goes over: The basics of candlesticks for stock and ETF Trading How and when candlesticks can fail you and cost you money What JR learned from Richard Wyckoff and the Wyckoff Method Tips for understanding technical analysis chart patterns like Head and Shoulders, rising channels, double tops, and more. How to find support and resistance using simple charts and indicators What real channels and breakouts look like How he analyzed Moderna (MRNA) and QQQ And more!
Continue Reading -->Yes, Sami Still Loves Tesla and Will Not Apologize
Sami Abusaad has made multiple iconic predictions on Tesla (TSLA) over the years. And he is still bullish on the stock – even in the face of constant bad news: Sami goes over: Why Tesla will not be a car company whatever The importance of the massive rounding bottom on Tesla’s monthly chart The tricky thing about the daily chart How Tesla recovered from the Elon Musk-Donald Trump disruption What could turn the stock down
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – WAR FOOTING EDITION
What a week! We just saw: Israel launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities President Trump and Elon Musk make nice The US and China inch towards resolution on trade A big cooling of inflation And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. War Is Driving a Resurgent Gold Trade Early Friday, Israel launched a series of attacks on Iranian nuclear and military targets. That drove a big rally in commodities like oil and precious metals. Gold is up over 30% this year and this conflict could be a catalyst for more gains – especially if Iran retaliates. Breaking through resistance at the $3450 area would the first step: 2. President Trump and Elon Musk Made Up Last week, Elon Musk went to war with President Trump over the “big beautiful bill” being stuffed with more pork than a bacon factory. Musk even dropped this bomb, though it was deleted this week. But these two Titanic egos made nice this week, with Musk Tweeting “I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far.” And yes, this is a stock market story because it’s created extra volatility in Tesla stock. We’ll talk about a problem with Tesla stock below in this article… 3. There’s Been a Shocking Rally in Super-Speculative Stocks We ran a screen in KoyFin for US stocks with these attributes: Revenues below $50 million Market Cap over $2.5 billion So forget about profits – these companies barely have any sales. The results were pretty wild. We have 18 total stocks, and 15 of them are up this quarter, led by: NuScale Power (SMR): +194.8% Quantum Computing (QUBT): +129.4% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): 111.6% (numbers are as of Thursday June 12 at 10:50 am ET) And the average return is 47%. Yes, 47%. Speaking of surges… 4. Biotech Is Showing Signs of Life, Small Caps Not So Much In recent weeks, we’ve talked about the biotech sector waking up after 10 years of doing a whole lotta nothing. And traders have been eager to see small caps play catch-up thanks to the light CPI and PPI reports. So what’s happening? Biotech is rocking, with the XBI ETF up almost 6% this month. Small caps? Not so much. 5. Sentiment Remains Weak The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.7% of investors are bullish. This is off lows from earlier this year, as you can see on the chart: But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors were bullish. Let’s just remember that it’s awfully tricky to turn sentiment numbers into actionable information for our trades. 6. Sami Abusaad Provided Another WTF Moment… Sami’s known for making bold statements, like when he accurately predicted Tesla (TSLA) $400 and Bitcoin $100,000. And then on June 4, Sami announced that he put 54% of his IRA into the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF (YINN). And guess what? China’s been doing great since then, with YINN up 13% and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) up 4%: Now, is putting 54% of your IRA in a 3X China ETF sound financial planning? Probably not. But when Sami makes a bold claim, you oughta listen. And FYI – we checked with the man himself and he said the long-term China story looks good, but YINN is ready for a short-term pullback. So put it on the radar… 7. HIMS Is a Growth Name Worth Watching Retail traders love Him & Hers (HIMS). Wall Street hates it. We found out why in this exclusive interview with Jonathan Stern, who created the HimsHouse investor community: 8. The 90s Are Back 90s fashion and 90s music are back. And then there’s 90s tech stocks… They are crushing the Mag7. Oracle (ORCL) is up a whopping 29% this month thanks to a great earnings report. And we see big moves in stocks like Micron (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT): Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) are getting left in the dust… And speaking of Tesla… 9. Tesla Estimates Are in Freefall One year ago, analysts expected Tesla to earn $3.45 a share in FY2025. That number is down to $1.89 today. Yet Tesla stock is up 86% over the last year. How long can this last? Tesla stock runs on hope… but the numbers have to add up eventually. Right? 10. Inner Circle Prices Are Going Up Prices on David Prince’s Inner Circle community are going UP to: $7,000 per year $800 per month Why do people love this community so much? Find out in this webinar replay. Then go here to apply.
Continue Reading -->Why Is HIMS Stock So Hated?
Today we sat down with Jonathan Stern of HimsHouse to discuss the ever-controversial Hims & Hers (HIMS) — a stock hated by Wall Street, loved by retail: We learn: The unique story behind HimsHouse Why retail investors love this meme-friendly stock so much – and why Wall Street hates it Why HIMS is growing so fast The long-term expansion story the “experts” might be missing A major problem with financial data services Jonathan’s long-term revenue forecast for HIMS And MORE!
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Trump vs. Musk Edition
What a week! We just saw: President Trump and Elon Musk enter a war of very unkind words President Trump make nice with China A surprise catalyst for the “Ultimate Trump Trade” A better-than-expected jobs report A sign of life in a “left for dead” sector And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. President Trump and Elon Musk Went to War Elon Musk went to war with President Trump this week thanks to the “big beautiful bull” being stuffed with more pork than a bacon convention. Musk did not hold back, with these messages getting over 260 million views on Twitter. Tesla (TSLA) stock took a beating, dropping 14% this week while tech stocks were up. However, the President did not go scorched-earth in response, and news reports indicate that Trump and Musk might reconcile. And, a CNN source reported that President Trump told Vice President JD Vance to “speak diplomatically” about the mess. So in keeping with the news flow rollercoaster, maybe Trump and Musk will make nice a la Zoolander and Hansel: Tesla longs are hoping for that. 2. We Need to Give Sami Abusaad a Shout-Out Last weekend, Sami said the market was heading back to all-time highs. Sami said: Forget the news flow Forget bond yields Forget the futures markets And just focus on the price action. As we write this on Friday at 1:27 pm ET, SPY is up 1.5% for the week and QQQ is up over 2%. By the way, Sami put 54% of his IRA into a very unusual ETF. Get it here. 3. The Economy Is Alive and Kicking While the doomsday crowd expects the US economy to fold because of tariff-related strife… things are humming along. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report was better-than-expected. Traders were bracing for a mess because of Wednesday’s weak ADP report. But the US economy remains alive and kicking. Another positive sign: JOLTS Job Openings came in above expectations, meaning US companies are still looking to hire. 4. The Mood Is Still Sour AAII Sentiment came in at 32.7% bullish this week, in-line with last week’s reading. This is well off the February and March lows, which preceded “Liberation Day,” which sent the US-China conflict into high gear. However, we’re still below the 37.5% long-term average. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average reading since January 29. So the mood remains sour. 5. The Ultimate Trump Trade Gets a New Catalyst We’ve talked extensively about the huge outperformance in stocks that benefit from financial market volatility, namely: Robinhood (HOOD): +189% since the election Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +34% Coinbase (COIN): +32% Charles Schwab (SCHW): +24% But a new catalyst for two of these names may be on the horizon. S&P Global will report new additions to the S&P 500 after the close on Friday. And Robinhood (HOOD) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) both have a chance to be added by virtue of their large market caps – $67 billion for HOOD and $90 billion for IBKR. 6. Left-for-Dead Biotech Shows a Sign of Life Biotech has been a mess for over a decade. Over the last 10 years, SPY is up 240%. And XBI is up 5%> BUT… XBI managed to rally over 6% this week. Traders have been burned for years buying biotech dips. Could this be the turning point? It’s hard to say – but keep this group on your radar. 7. Q2 Earnings Expectations Are Crazy Low Q1 earnings season was an unqualified success, with 78% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, according to FactSet. And here’s the good news for Q2 – estimates are dropping like a rock. On March 31, analysts forecast 9.3% EPS growth for Q2. Today it’s 4.9%. Is that crazy low? Yes. Is it convenient? Yes, again. When the bar is low, it’s easy for companies to beat expectations. 8. Bitcoin Is Taking a Nap Bitcoin went on a wild rally off the April lows. Last week, we asked whether Bitcoin needed a nap because of weakness in MicroStrategy (MSTR) and GameStop’s (GME) Bitcoin purchase announcement, which spurred a sell-the-news reaction. Turns out, we should have shorted Bitcoin because it’s under pressure: Is this a disaster? Nah. Bitcoin went up 50% in a straight line. It deserved a nap. 9. It’s Still a Trader’s Market David Prince of T3 Live’s Inner Circle community argues that you need to have your trader hat on. [IMPORTANT: David is hosting a webinar which you can sign up for here.] And with the market grinding higher, the best opportunities are “under the hood.” See what he means: 10. You Need Some Gratitude! Friday marked the 81st anniversary of the D-Day landing on the beaches of Normandy, France. If not for the 150,000+ brave souls from around the world that risked it all, we might not be here. Be grateful! And watch Saving Private Ryan this weekend. I once worked for a former Army Officer who survived the assault. He said it was the most realistic depiction of Normandy that he ever saw. Rest in peace, Mr. Duffy. Have a great weekend folks.
Continue Reading -->David Prince Is Still A Trader – Not An Investor – In This Market
Inner Circle’s David Prince continues to wear his trader cap in this market as QQQ and SPY grind higher, looking for more investable opportunities “under the hood”. He explains how he’s using that strategy in his own trading: David discusses: How he’s trading the indices Why he isn’t fighting the trend What names he’s focused on for longer term buys If it’s time for “Small-Cap Summer” The AI name he’s focused on… that’s NOT Nvidia And more Join next week’s free webinar with David here.
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