How to Stack the Odds in Your Favor For Your Most Reliable Trades
Today’s lesson is picking up where we left off last week, when you learned how amplifiers make a set up even better. That lesson focused on bottoming and topping tails – if you missed it, catch up here! Today, Sami is moving to the most involved enhancer on the list: the Changing of the Guard. This trading combination is a multi-bar pattern that signifies a clear shift in the balance of power between the bears and the bulls. It can be bullish, letting you know that the buyers have taken over, or bearish, announcing that the sellers are winning. There is powerful reasoning behind this price pattern’s potency. To understand it, Sami takes you all the way back to the first lesson in this series to explain how to read the battle between buyers and sellers on the charts. The Changing of the Guard bars are not entry bars, they are warning bars before a buy or sell set up triggers. When you get the two in sequence, it results in a more reliable buy opportunity. Your ultimate goal is to find your perfect buy or sell set up, and this is how you find it.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Yes, I Do Trade Gold!
This morning, my editor said “I can’t remember the last time you’ve talked so much about gold.” And he’s right — I mostly trade tech stocks, momentum names, and IPO’s… but I’m not going to turn my back on a good opportunity.And GLD has been a major focus in Redler All-Access for the past few weeks.I’ve been long GLD calls because the technical picture improved so much, with GLD having reclaimed all moving averages in early June.That was key, because when a stock/ETF/index breaks above moving averages and makes new highs, it’s telling you momentum is here. So even if you hated gold, you had to respect its power. That doesn’t mean you had to get long — but you definitely think twice about shorting.On July 30, I said “GLD held $133 and now we’ll see If it gets any traction above $134.75.”And it did get plenty of traction, hitting a high of $138.64 Monday on China’s devaluation of the Yuan.I sold my GLD weekly calls into that strength for a nice gain.And today after the open, I trimmed some of my GLD October calls as well.So what could be coming longer-term for GLD?It could be setting up a breakout above the 5-year range. It could see $144 to $148 before year-end.So you may be asking “Red Dog, if GLD can get higher, why sell the calls?” You have to understand that as a professional trader, my time frame is sometimes pretty short, and my #1 priority is netting cash flow as often as possible. I’ll also most likely be trading around my GLD calls, perhaps creating spreads into strength, and adding into weakness. If you want to follow along and get my GLD game plan every day, check out Redler All-Access here. Positions Disclosure: As of August 6, 2019 at 10:09 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long FB, AMRN calls, UBER calls, DIS calls, GWPH calls, GLD calls, DIS calls, GOOGL calls
Continue Reading -->The Bleed and the Money Bar
“The market speaks loudest in failure patterns” is as true a saying as it gets on Wall Street. The Money Bar is the ultimate failure pattern. Here’s the way it goes: a stock tries to break out from a bearish base, only to get slammed. It signals that traders weren’t quick enough and got caught. It also gives Sami a solid entry and a secure stop. And it shows you where money got trapped. Once you know that, you need to know how to play it. Sami’s explains how you can attack this kind of opportunity. Plus, Sami gives you insight into one of his favorite patterns of all time, the Bleed Pattern, which occurs when a stock pulls back, pops a bit, and then bleeds into the rising 20ma and breaks out. This pattern often coincides with the Money Bar, and that’s when the real fun begins. Watch this video to learn how these patterns can help you boost your profits.
Continue Reading -->The First Shoe to Drop if the Market Tops
“Mark my words: if the market tops, this name will be the first shoe to drop.” Sami Abusaad is taking you along for a deep dive into some of the most influential names in the US economy. Tech companies lead the market, and there’s no shortage of movement there. Sami gives us his perspective on each of the FAANG names – plus MSFT, which is perhaps the most important of all. The majority are looking decent on the charts, but one in particular is seeing a spectacular fall. Sami is confident: this tech stock will be the first shoe to drop if the market tops. Plus, there’s plenty to cover outside of FAANG. Sami gives you some of his top takes, including: the one caveat he’s looking for before he plays TSLA when you should be sprinting away from NVDA why he’s skipping the indexes in gold and going straight for the individual stocks why BABA is a mess at the moment, and what to do with it the names he likes in crypto which stock is the best of the bunch – and yes, he’s playing it There’s a lot of info packed into this quick video. Get watch and get trading.
Continue Reading -->Understanding the Power of the 20 Day Moving Average
Sami Abusaad has dubbed the mighty 20 day moving average the single most important tool at his disposal. Rarely can such a simple tool make such a huge difference in your effectiveness, but this one is the exception. In Sami’s view, there is no tool more accurate and reliable. This essential lesson highlights how to use the 20ma to understand what the charts are telling you. Sami breaks down direction, slope, and how you can use this information to play the trend. If you didn’t already know, moving averages are directional guides that speed up technical analysis of trend. Sami attributes half of his total profits to the moving average – in fact, he prefers most people don’t use it, because it’s a big part of his edge! This particular moving average gives you a heads up right before a stock is about to break out. If you think you could benefit from that kind of forewarning when it comes to taking trades, then this is the lesson for you. Learn it now!
Continue Reading -->How to Stack the Odds in Your Favor on Every Trade
Today, Sami’s talking amplifiers: events that stack the odds in your favor. Before he gets into it, he reviews a lesson from way back in his lesson series on buy and sell setups. It’s one you need to understand before you build off of it with today’s lesson, so make sure you go back and review if you aren’t crystal clear on it yet. These setups, used with amplifiers, allow accuracy levels to climb even higher and your profits to skyrocket. Sami gets scientific about properly identifying and exploiting moments when these events occur simultaneously… and is happy to teach you his methods. Take your trades from decent to excellent. Watch now to stack the odds in your favor.
Continue Reading -->A Secret Trick for Playing the 200 Day Moving Average
The 200 day moving average is the Grand Daddy of them all. And if you understand one simple trick, the 200 day can tell you an awful lot about where a stock can go. In this classic video (note: the Black Room is now the Pristine Active Trader VTF®), Sami Abusaad explains what gaps around the 200 day moving average mean. He gives you a simple rule that lets you know if a gap will lead to continuation up or down, or if a reversal could be on tap. Every time Sami has violated this rule, he’s regretted it. Also learn why “flatness is king” — unlike the 20 day, you do not want a trend in the 200 day moving average. This is one of those tiny little nuances most traders don’t know about — but which can make a big difference in your P&L. And you can learn it through example from Tesla (TSLA), Vaaalco Energy (EGY), Tellurian (TELL), and more.
Continue Reading -->GLD Going Bullish
Today Sami’s giving you a quick update for the latest in gold. On June 1st he called the bottom on GLD. Now there’s a new pattern setting up that demands your attention. If you missed the train, now’s the time to jump on as it speeds up. Tune in to find out where gold is going.
Continue Reading -->Big Plans to Buy Bitcoin
Last week, Sami gave you three scenarios that could play out in Bitcoin, and a guide on how you could play them depending on where the charts took you. One of those three opportunities came up. Did you play it? Tune in to see how Sami trades went. This week, he’s taking a new approach on Bitcoin. His short term plays are turning bearish. He shows you why, plus how he finds the clues with multiple timeframes. While he sees price drops in the short term, his long term outlook is as bullish as ever. He’s got some huge early projections for where Bitcoin will hit by New Years 2020. Watch now to cash in on the long term trades on the table.
Continue Reading -->The Ultimate Guide to Trading Earnings Season
Do you have an earnings season strategy? Because there’s more opportunity than any time of year. You’re about to find out why. In this super in-depth article, you’re going to understand just about everything there is to know about earning season. And if you’re ready to jump right into trading earnings now, check out Sami Abusaad’s Earnings Engine course. Here’s your table of contents: The Ultimate Guide to Trading Earnings Season Includes: What Is Earnings Season?When Is Earnings Season?Why You Should Care About Earnings SeasonHow to Find Out When a Company Reports EarningsAbout Earnings Report Releases and Conference CallsHow to Find Consensus Earnings and Sales EstimatesHow Earnings Reports Affect Stock PricesHow to Judge Earnings Season as a WholeHow To Trade EarningsA Preview of Sami Abusaad’s Earnings Engine CourseEarnings Play BasicsSami’s Earnings Play Checklist What Is Earnings Season?Before you can understand how to trade during earnings season, you need to understand what earnings season is. Earnings season is when the bulk of publicly-traded companies deliver their quarterly earnings reports. These reports contain a variety of financial information on the business’s performance in the previous quarter, typically including (but not limited to): Balance Sheet Income Statement Cash Flow StatementOther helpful facts and figures, like performance of certain business units and products.Stocks tend to have big movements upon the release of earnings reports because investors make new decisions about each company’s future.An earnings report can make you encouraged, discouraged, or even indifferent about a stock’s prospects. When Is Earnings Season?There is no official earnings season. Historically, traders considered aluminum company Alcoa’s (AA) quarterly reports to be the kickoff of each earnings season, since it was always the first company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to report. Now that Alcoa’s been removed from the Dow, the new ‘unofficial’ start to earnings season occurs 2-3 weeks after the end of each calendar quarter, when the big banks like JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) report earnings. Earnings season activity peaks about 2 weeks after that, when a cluster of tech companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) report. At the peak, over 150 companies report earnings in a single day. Then, the frequency of earnings reports declines for another 4 weeks, upon which earnings season is more or less over. However, outside of the traditional earnings season, at least a few companies report almost every day. This is because some companies have different fiscal quarter and year-ends. For example, Nike (NKE) operates on a May fiscal year, so it does not deliver its quarterly reports during earnings season.Why You Should Care About Earnings SeasonEarning Season action is different than regular market action.Since there’s so much important news being released, stocks bounce around like crazy. And remember, a company’s earnings report can affect multiple stocks. For example, when Apple (AAPL) reports earnings, it has a huge impact on the entire tech sector, and especially its suppliers.How to Find Out When a Company Reports EarningsThe single best way to find out when a company reports earnings is to go to the investor relations section of its website.Companies typically issue press releases with the official earnings date and time.You can also find a company’s earnings date on hundreds of websites including Yahoo! Finance and Nasdaq.com.However, if a company has not yet announced an official earnings date, it will be estimated based on historical norms. These estimates are usually correct, but occasionally, they’ll be wrong.Speaking of historical norms, companies tend to be very consistent with their reporting schedules.For example, Netflix (NFLX) always reports after the market close about two-and-a-half weeks following the end of the calendar quarter. About Earnings Report Releases and Conference CallsEarnings reports are typically posted on a company’s website, and also distributed via press release. Management will then hold an earnings call about 30-60 minutes after the release. An earnings call typically starts with prepared comments from the company’s CEO or CFO, followed by a Q&A session with Wall Street analysts.They tend to last about an hour.You can listen to these calls live, or catch replays after. And several online publishers including Seeking Alpha actually provide transcripts of the calls.Keep in mind that some companies will announce guidance during a call, instead of in the actual earnings release. How to Find Consensus Earnings and Sales EstimatesEarnings don’t just exist in a vacuum.Wall Street analysts from firms like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) will forecast a company’s performance based on in-depth research. Investors pay most attention to analysts’ forecasts of the following items: Earnings per share Sales Profit margins Unit salesThese forecasts are then averaged into “consensus estimates” by financial news/data organizations, the most prominent of which are Reuters and Bloomberg. The numbers sometimes differ slightly between them, but they’re generally very close. Like with earnings calendars, These consensus estimates are widely available online. Here’s a section from Reuters’ listing of estimates for Apple (AAPL):Reuters lists the sales and earnings per share estimates by quarter, along with how those estimates have been treding. Traders like to see how a company’s reported results compare with these consensus estimates. But beware — a company can beat earnings estimates and see its stock drop. For example, Marketwatch reported that Johnson & Johnson fell despite strong earnings and guidance: How Earnings Reports Affect Stock PricesThe impact of earnings on a stock price is not an exact science. Here is a small selection of the factors that can impact a stock’s reaction to earnings: Earnings per share (relative to expectations) Sales (relative to expectations) Profit margins (relative to expectations) Product unit sales (relative to expectations) The company’s future outlook (relative to expectations) Comments made by executives on the conference call How much the stock is up or down before earningsAs you just learned, it is not uncommon for a company to beat expectations and fall. And a company can report terrible earnings and see its stock rise? Why? It’s all about expectations (see how many times we used that word), which is related to how much a stock is up or down before earnings. For example, if a stock runs higher into earnings, it signals that expectations are very high. So a strong report may be priced in, reporting in
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