Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: A BIG Earnings Week
Welcome to Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes, which gives you a selection of insights from Scott’s Redler Report newsletter. SPX futures are -17 after a big rally to a new high of 4412 Friday. It’s a big earnings week. We’ll see if 4370-4381 acts as support today now that things are extended. NFLX reported last Tuesday and underwhelmed. Most big names hit this week: TSLA reports today after the close, AAPL, MSFT and GOOGL report tomorrow, FB is Wednesday, and AMZN is Thursday.TSLA reports earnings after the close today. I’m not taking an options strategy into it. If it’s a super solid report, it will need to get and stay above the $693-$700 area to open the door for higher prices. For now, see it holds $648ish. AAPL has been acting special since it reclaimed the moving averages in the $127.50 area. There have been so many ways to create cash flow. Last week my strategy was to get long in the $144 area. It reports Tuesday. I’m in some stock and will look to add more. I also bought $150 calls. MSFT has been above the 8/21 day since May, providing leadership. Last week it made a new high before many other names, hitting $289.99. I’d trim into strength because it feels like strong numbers are already priced in. GOOGL has been riding the 8/21 day higher for months as dip buyers keep getting rewarded. On Friday, it hit a high of $2667. It’s up this morning and I’d be looking to trim. FB moved in sympathy with TWTR and SNAP. It reports Wednesday. A little digestion above $358 keeps it constructive. $375 is Friday’s high to watch. AMZN has been a grand slam and my macro call spread has been VERY profitable. I’m still in about a third of it which I will likely hold into earnings on Thursday. I might add another option strategy to get more exposure. Last week it cleared $3592 to hit $3666 Friday. The all-time high pivot is $3773. There is no real setup today, but it’s showing relative strength. Positions Disclosure as of 7/26/2021 at 7:51 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Watch These ETF’s Closely
Welcome to Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes, which gives you a selection of insights from Scott’s Redler Report newsletter. We have mostly red arrows around the world on worries over pandemics and central banks. Europe and Asia are both broadly lower to start the week.A double Red Dog Reversal into the SPX 4386 area while internals weakened and small caps headed lower is why I preached reducing risk. I went from 25+ equity longs a few weeks back to around 10 early last week to net short by Tuesday. That helped me navigate the tape and minimize the pain. SPY’s gave us ways to make money short last week as it played downside catch-up. Friday, it opened above $435 and failed with a close below Thursday’s low to keep some short coming into today. $427 is pivot support to keep in mind but $425ish is a more important area. QQQ/Tech was the last sector to get faulty. The question is does it play downside catch-up? Or does it find a low today to lead the market off the lows? Watch the 21 day around $354, and see if it reclaims Friday’s $357.24 low. I’d also watch key names like AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA for clues on the action. IWM broke the $224 area as the wedge resolved lower. On Friday, it hit a low of $214.47. I’d cover some and see if there’s a tactical buy vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. $211 is some support and then $207.50ish is the major. If this channel breaks and stays below, it can tell us this correction will last. Bank earnings were sold last week. Now we’ll see if XLF can reclaim $36.10 or not. $35.51 is support. A break and close below could mean more trouble ahead. Positions Disclosure as of 7/19/2021 at 8:02 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Options In Play – The Momentum Line In The Sand On QQQ
Up and up we went in June and July, but now momentum is slowing on QQQ. Keep an eye on this big level as it could lead to heavier selling if it is lost.
Continue Reading -->Options In Play – SPCE And The 2-3 Day Rule For Event Trades
It’s always great when a stock has a huge move to pay options on the day of the event, but it doesn’t always work out that way. Sometimes you need to give a trade time for the news to get digested.
Continue Reading -->Options In Play – Why You Should Care About The TLT
TLT and rates are moving around, but many traders are only focused on Tech. There are reasons to pay attention now, though.
Continue Reading -->How I Use Relative Strength in Day Trading
In this video, you’ll learn: How Scott Redler spots an opportunity to get long #stocks on a down day How to use #QQQ to detect a market rebound Why he uses a tier system to manage trades intraday Technical analysis tips for spotting market bounces and predicting market moves
Continue Reading -->Options In Play – Earnings On The Radar Week Of 7/16/21
Earnings season is back! Banks kick off the quarter with a busy week of reports.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: AMZN, AMC, Bitcoin
Welcome to Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes, which gives you a selection of insights from Scott’s Redler Report newsletter. We have mixed markets around the world after last week’s bout of volatility. Last Thursday, the bears had their chance to steal control but had no power. SPX held the 21 day and leaders gave a way to buy in the hole. This weekend, there was more talk of a Global Minimum Tax, but nothing really surprising. SPX needs to hold the 4030-4040 area to keep upper momentum. The all-time high pivot is now 4371. I’m still in a Portfolio Approach, but with fewer names on because the action got a lot more stock-specific. AMZN was a grand slam for our community and I hope you participated. We had the big breakout from $3471 to $3759. I still have 2/3 of my macro call spread, which went from $15 to $70+. I am also short some puts for Friday to generate more P&L. If it can digest above $3694 and create a new flag, I may buy for a move through $3759. Earnings aren’t until July 29. AMC gave signals to get us out around $59. Some are still trading it tactically after it gave a trade Thursday to $49+. It’s down a bit this morning. See if it tries to reclaim the $45.82 pivot for a trade. See if the Black Widow box office numbers help. Two weeks ago, we all focused on Bitcoin at $30,000. It reclaimed that level and it hit $36,500 to trim some. It’s hard to tell if this lower level channel holds. I put on a little but more exposure to go from 80% to 70% cash in my crypto account. If it gets and stays below $32,000, I will most likely hit the brakes. I’m not giving this much room. Positions Disclosure as of 7/12/2021 at 8:04 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Yes, Amazon Is STILL One to Watch
This week’s watchlist is here! Jump in and find out: What you need to see now on the daily chart Why the trend is probably here to stay What makes Amazon (AMZN) stand out so much The bio name that is on fire The 3 names that can drop And more!
Continue Reading -->S&P 500 Facts: 10 Things You Don’t Know
The S&P 500 is one of the most recognizable stock market indices. While the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average is better known to the public, the S&P is often viewed as the best indicator for large-cap U.S stocks. But… we bet you didn’t know these 10 things about the S&P 500… starting with…The S&P 500 Has 505 Stocks! *all the facts here are true as of July 9, 2021 S&P itself says “the index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.” However, though there are 500 companies in the S&P 500, there are actually 505 stocks in the index!This is because the following 5 companies have dual share classes, giving the S&P 500 5 additional tickers:1Alphabet (which you know as Google): GOOG & GOOGL2Discovery: DISCA & DISCK3Fox Corporation: FOX & FOXA4News Corp: NWS & NWSA5Under Armour: UA & UAA WHAT? There are 505 stocks in the S&P 500 Index $SPX $SPY –> Click to Tweet The S&P 500 Has Made People a LOT of Money… Even With the Ups and DownsHere’s a long-term chart going back to 1980:The S&P 500 has made people a lot of money over the long run. The index has averaged a return of around +10% per year throughout its history, meaning it doubles about every 7 years on average. However, there have been plenty of ups and downs along the way. We’re sure you remember 2008, when the index fell fell over 37% due to the financial crisis. When Congress rejected the bank bailout on September 29 of that year, the S&P 500 dropped -8.8% in a single day of trading. This was the biggest drop since the 1987 Black Monday crash, when the S&P collapsed -20.5%. There’s also been good times, like 2013, when it rose 32.4%. And even with the COVID-19 pandemic, the S&P 500 rose 15.8% in 2020.You Can’t Trade the S&P 500Since the S&P 500 is an index, you can’t directly invest in it or trade it. So how can people make money from it? Simple — they own or trade mutual funds and ETFs indexed to the S&P 500. This means those mutual funds and ETFs model the S&P 500, buying and selling the same stocks in the same weightings to produce a return that’s roughly equivalent to the index itself. S&P says $11.2 trillion in assets (like mutual funds and ETFs) are benchmarked to the index. The best known of these assets are:The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, which trades under the ticker SPYThe Vanguard 500 Index Mutual Fund, which trades under the ticker VFINXHowever, you can trade futures and options based on the S&P 500.S&P Is Actually a Company, and the Index Has a Long HistoryLet’s talk some S&P 500 history and basics. S&P stands for Standard and Poor’s, which is now part of S&P Global Inc, which is now publicly traded under the ticker SPGI. The S&P 500 was founded on March 4, 1957. However, the S&P does have a predecessor index called the Composite Index, which contained 90 stocks. Many historical data sources will mix the two together.The S&P 500’s Ticker Is NOT Always SPXWhile traders often use SPX as a shorthand for the S&P 500 Index, the index’ ticker is NOT always SPX in trading platforms and charting systems. The official ticker is ^GSPC — which is odd because people don’t use it in the real world. On platforms like Twitter and Stocktwits, traders will use $SPX when discussing the index. Charting platforms like Trendspider also typically use $SPX:To add to the confusion: there is actually an infrastucture company called SPX Corporation which used to trade under the ticker SPX. Thankfully, SPX Corporation has since changed its ticker to SPXC.The S&P 500 Does Not Let Every Big Company In, and There’s a Revolving DoorThe S&P 500 is not open to every large publicly-traded corporation. Tesla (TSLA) was only added in December 2020 when it had a $600 billion market cap! Here are the official requirements:Must have a $13.1 Billion Market CapMajority of shares are in the public’s handsMust be highly liquidTraded on a major U.S stock exchangePublicly traded for at least one yearHere are some major companies which are NOT included in the S&P 500:Berkshire Hathaway Class A (BRK.A): $638 Billion Market CapZoom Video Communications (ZM): $113.2 Billion Market CapSquare Inc (SQ): $106.2 BillionSnap Inc (SNAP): $102.9 BillionModerna Inc (MRNA): $93.7 BillionAnd as you might imagine, when a new stock is added, an older one is removed. Companies are removed for all sorts of reasons, including mergers, banktrupcies, or simply falling down the totem pole in terms of size and prestige.The S&P 500 Is a Market Cap Weighted IndexNot every stock in the S&P 500 impacts the index equally. Apple (AAPL) is the top weighted stock and makes up 6.1% of the index. That means 6.1% of the S&P 500’s movements are dictated by Apple. Just below, you’ll see that the top 10 companies in the S&P account for 28% of the index. So it’s quite top heavy. And at the bottom, there is News Corporation Class B (NWS) at just 0.008% of the index.April Is the Best Month for the S&P 500April is the best month of the year for the S&P 500, based on data going back to 1980. The S&P 500 rises 2.0% in April on average, higher than any month. You can see all the data here: S&P 500 Returns By Month Since 1980 Month of the YearAverage SPX Return % Positive MonthsJanuary 1.0% 60% February 0.2% 62% March 0.8% 62% April 2.0% 74% May 0.9% 69% June 0.3% 62% July 1.0% 52% August 0.2% 60% September -0.7% 48% October 1.2% 64% November 1.8% 71% December 1.3% 73% Data Source: Investing.com The S&P 500 has been up in 31 of the 42 last Aprils, or 74%. That is the highest percentage of all months. September is the worst month for the S&P 500, averaging a -0.7% decline since 1980. In fact, September is the only month that is down on average for the S&P 500.The S&P 500’s Top Names Are Ones You KnowSince the S&P 500 is a market cap weighted index, the names in the
Continue Reading -->