2 Biggest Days Ever + 9 Other Things You Need to Know Right Now
We closed out another big week in markets with the SPX and QQQ hitting record highs after the light CPI report. So it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know: 1. The Rate Cuts Are Coming Thanks to the government shutdown, we’ve been waiting forever for a CPI report. We finally got one Friday, and the numbers were lighter-than-expected. The headline number grew by 3.0%. That’s not low, but at least it was below the consensus estimate. Now, traders are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday, October 29, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. And 94% of traders expect a total of 50 bp in cuts by year-end. Speaking of next Wednesday… 2. The Tech Megapowers Report Earnings Here’s a partial list of the companies reporting on Wednesday and Thursday: Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META) Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) That’s 5 of the Mag 7, and they represent 22.5% of the S&P 500 index. So far, Q3 earnings season has been stronger than expected (even with rising earnings estimates), and these names could seal the deal on how things turn out overall. So between the Fed and all these earnings reports (plus ones we haven’t mentioned like CAT/LLY/MA), this looks like 2 of the biggest trading days of all time! And oh yeah… we also get the PCE Price Index, plus Japan and Canada’s rate decisions, and Eurozone CPI. Here’s the full calendar: 3. It Could Be Make or Break Time for Nvidia All those big tech earnings reports will have a big impact on Nvidia (NVDA). AI powerhouses like OpenAI, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and CoreWeave (CRWV) have been sucking down AI chips like crazy. And Nvidia longs want confirmation that the spending spree will continue. Especially since it looks like AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) may be taking bigger pieces of the pie. So Nvidia will move big based on the capex forecasts of these tech giants. It’s the biggest potential catalyst until earnings on November 19. 4. Tony Robbins Is Your New AI Guy I am an AI skeptic, because I question the real-world financial value of all the big AI investments we see. Now, I see that the nation’s #1 Life and Business Strategist (his words, not mine) Tony Robbins is hosting an “AI Advantage Summit:”Now, I have nothing against Tony Robbins. I agree with a lot of what he says. But isn’t this the type of thing you see closer to a top than a bottom? It makes me worry. 5. Sentiment Is… MEH The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.9% of investors are bullish. This is more-or-less neutral, and up slightly from last week. And it makes sense because market participants are in a state of confusion because of: An earnings season that feels all over the place, at least in terms of reactions Minimal economic data because of the government shutdown The nonstop news flow out of the White House And speaking of sentiment… 6. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index Is Not Broken As of early Friday afternoon, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index was at 34, indicating Fear. Is it broken as many market participants think? With markets at record things, sentiment should at least be neutral, like AAII is. Right? Remember, it’s normal for sentiment to be neutral when market is going up amid a confusing news flow. Also, Fear & Greed is not determined by a survey, but 7 market indicators including things like Junk Bond Demand: Maybe you don’t find it useful, but it’s not broken. It’s just spitting out what the recipe says. And speaking of sentiment one more time, trader JC Parets posted a poignant Tweet on Wednesday: 7. Do Books About the 1929 Crash Come Out at the Top? Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book “1929” hit the New York Times best-seller list. And JC had the most interesting reaction: Reading this new book about the 1929 crash has me wondering… do books like this usually come out right before a market crash, or when bull markets still have plenty of gas left? https://t.co/M1BqbSZlZi — J.C. Parets (@JC_ParetsX) October 22, 2025 So if most traditional indicators are reading neutral, and we have a best-selling book about 1929 out, and the market’s at record highs we can conclude that… Nobody knows where sentiment is right now. It’s a mess. 8. Extended Hours Options Trading May Be Coming Soon I recently suggested that option tradings hours should be extended, because it would be a huge convenience during earnings season: While I can’t confirm it for sure, I will assume the CBOE saw the video (it does have a whopping 125 views), because they filed a proposal with the SEC to extend hours for equity options trading. According to the filing, the CBOE would add a morning session from 7:30 to 9:25 am ET, plus an afternoon session from 4 to 4:15 pm ET. I guess it’s fair to give options traders a 5-minute potty break at 9:25, right? Now if only Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) would report earnings before 4:15 pm ET so their options could fit into that afternoon window… 9. Biotech Has Been on Fire One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed’s dovish leaning has been biotech. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is the #1 major ETF in October, and it’s now up almost 21% year-to-date. But if you want to see the really hot stuff, look at heavily-shorted small and mid-cap biotechs. We used Koyfin to screen for biotechs with a market cap of $500 million to $5 billion, and short interest above 10%. Many are up 30%+ this month alone: 10. You Too Can Be a Sultan of Swing Trading! JR Romero recently unveiled his swing trading secrets in this exclusive webinar. Want all his ideas AND 3 months of Koyfin software? GO HERE.
Continue Reading -->Bear Get Beaten Back: Those Big Red Bars Mean Nothing Now
In this week’s breakdown, Sami Abusaad reviews the major indices — and how he’s positioning onto the end of October. After a quick breakdown, the market reclaimed its 20-day moving average and pushed back into the upper third of the range. Sami notes that “the trend usually wins out.” And the trend looks up. Sami also goes over: Why he’s leaning mildly bullish, expecting the market to drift higher into month-end unless new weakness proves otherwise Why the monthly chart will be important when the October bar is completed An early-stage base breakout that’s “different from most charts out there,” showing promise if it continues to build strengt A long opportunity in Walmart (WMT), which recently broke out to all-time highs The bullish action in Tesla (TSLA) after it negated its big red bar Where Target (TGT) turns into an attractive long swing idea Potential long entries in ELBM, LU, and XERS The reason he’s cautious about pressing shorts right now 4 Key Takeaways: Market trend remains up, but follow-through into month-end will confirm strength. Focus on long setups showing relative strength and clean technical bases. Keep an eye on weak names like Caesars (CZR) and Under Armour (UAA) for potential short plays if momentum flips. Patience matters — Sam expects more momentum after month-end, not before.
Continue Reading -->How David Prince Trades “Junk” Stocks
Quantum computing stocks are the latest big fad on Wall Street. And while many investors say you should stay away because they have no revenue, Inner Circle’s David Prince has been riding the wave. David discusses how he approaches trading “junk” names and what he’s learned over the years about these trades: David also covers: The latest on U.S. / China trade tensions Rare earth materials stocks like MP Materials (MP), USA Rare Earth (USAR), and Trilogy Metals (TMQ) The AI trade theme following Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)’s earnings The future of Immunome (IMNM) How he trades around a “core position” on long-term investments And more! Apply to join the Inner Circle VTF® and work with David here.
Continue Reading -->My #1 Stock: New Caterpillar Price Target Released
One month ago, JR Romero came out bullish on Caterpillar (CAT) – naming it his #1 FOMC stock. And since then the stock has ripped from $450 to $533. Today, JR updated his target price: JR also goes over: A hot utility stock with a big cup & handle patterns Multiple names in the biotech sector, which has been on FIRE this quarter An IPO base breakout name that refuses to react to political news A “steamboat to China” slow mover that could power up by anotoher $20 Multiple aggressive speculative names that can rocket from here A red-hot aviation name that just triggered And MORE!
Continue Reading -->We Topped Out. And It’s Russell’s Fault.
Sami Abusaad argues the market got exhausted and is topped out. And it’s the Russell 2000’s fault. Sami also explains: Why Friday’s big red candle was so hard to predict The power of a daily chart that just keeps grinding up The Russell 2000’s role in creating the recent market top Why it’s so hard to find good shorts after Friday’s action A biotech name with big upside potential Why the China names might bounce after Monday A hot quantum computing name that is about to pull in And more!
Continue Reading -->President Trump Ruins the Party
The government is shut down so key economic data remain missing in action. Is that a problem? No way! The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all made record highs this week. So let’s look at the 10 things you need to know right now! 1) President Trump Ruined the Party I’m just sitting here cranking out this article in peace… and President Trump just dropped this bomb on Truth Social: So China’s getting tougher when it comes to exports of rare earth materials, and Trump is considering fighting back with a bunch of tariffs. This gave traders an excuse to do some profit taking after a powerful start to Q4. The question is – was Friday’s dip just another buying opportunity? Or a prelude to a slopfest like we had in April? Now whether you like Trump or not, we all have to admit markets are more interesting with him around. Real world effects notwithstanding… We’ll talk about The Ultimate Trump Trade soon, but isn’t it odd that… 2) Bullish Sentiment Hit a 10-Month High The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.9% of investors are bullish. This is the fourth straight week of above-average bullishness. And it’s the highest bullish reading since December 5, 2024. So yes, higher stock prices pushed sentiment to a 10-month high right before President Trump kicked us in the shin. 3) Earnings Season Is About to Kick Off HARD Next week’s economic calendar is jammed with key data like CPI, PPI, Jobless Claims, NFP, and Retail Sales. But we may get none of these numbers if the shutdown continues. The good thing is we’re about to get assaulted with earnings reports from heavyweights in two key sectors: Banks: JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and others. Semiconductors: ASML Holding (ASML) & Taiwan Semi (TSM) So we’ll get key insights on housing, consumer strength, and AI. The problem is that earnings estimates have been rising ahead of earnings season – not falling like in recent quarters. So the bar is high. But back on the economic numbers, don’t forget that… Related: 7 Things I HATE About Earnings Season: 4) Interactive Brokers Will Update Us on The Ultimate Trump Trade Leading brokerage Interactive Brokers (IBKR) is one of my biggest long-term stock investments, so take what I say with a grain of salt. They report earnings Thursday and could give us an update on “The Ultimate Trump Trade” – the basket of financial stocks that benefit from a combination of market volatility and rising stock/crypto prices, including Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Webull (BULL). Interactive Brokers should give us insights on what trading volumes could look like in October. That could mean dip buying opportunities in this basket of stocks, so keep an eye out. 5) Fed Chair Powell Speaks on Tuesday Even with the economic data mystery, the market is still banking on a rate cut later this month. The CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 95% probability of an October rate cut. So the market assumes the missing data supports the Fed’s dovish course. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell will give a speech on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) annual meeting in Philadelphia. On October 9, Powell was unable to make his appearance at the Fed Community Bank conferences, so the stakes may be higher for this Tuesday. 6) 2025 Is the Year of Heavy Metal Yep, SPY is up 15% and Bitcoin is up 28%. Pretty impressive. But have you seen the metals complex? We sampled some of the more popular metals ETFs and the numbers are shocking, with gold miners (GDX) up 125%: Silver, copper, palladium, and uranium are also putting up massive numbers. It’s been a perfect storm because of trends like the falling US dollar, lower rates, flight to safety, central bank buying, institutional demand, and plain old supply-demand constraints. 7. Jamie Dimon Made Me Question AI Earlier this week, JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said the company spends $2 billion a year on AI. And it’s now saving that much money a year as a result. Now, spending $2 billion to save $2 billion doesn’t sound like anything great. But those savings should snowball over time because $2 billion spent this year should save at least $2 billion this year, and also provide savings next year. And I’m a JP Morgan shareholder, so I’m glad to see this. My concern is why aren’t more companies making announcements like this? Are they keeping things quiet to avoid freaking out employees fearful of being replace by ChatGPT? An MIT report showed that most AI programs have “little to no measurable impact on P&L.” So it’s exciting to see all these mega deals like the AMD (AMD)/OpenAI link-up. But where’s the beef? More companies should be saying “we saved $XYZ or increased sales by XYZ% through the use of AI.” Right? 8. Ray Dalio Warns of Danger Ahead Super investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, is comparing the current climate to pre-World War 2. In a Bloomberg interview, Dalio warned about skyrocketing US government debt, saying “it’s like plaque in the arteries that then begins to squeeze out the spending.” But good luck explaining that to a politician. He also said “civil war of some sort” is developing in the US and other parts of the world. Let’s hope he’s wrong. 9. Utilities Might Heat Up We might be entering a perfect environment for the typically sleepy utilities. We have economic uncertainty, rising power demand, a friendlier regulatory environment, and falling interest rates. The market’s not blind to this, with the Utilities SPDR ETF (XLU) up 22% YTD, and up 4% in October: Plus, many XLU components like Constellation Energy (CEG) offer exposure to the booming nuclear power trend. FYI – I have a small XLU position. 10) This Market Cycle Expert Predicts SPX 7100 Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of The Stock
Continue Reading -->David Prince: U.S. Rare Earth Stocks After China Crackdown
U.S. based rare earth companies surged today after China tightened its controls on rare earth exports. David Prince discusses what this means for names like MP Materials (MP), USA Rare Earth (USAR), Trilogy Metals (TMQ) and more: David also covers: What’s next for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) after this week’s monster move What the AMD + OpenAI deal means for Nvidia (NVDA) The latest on the government shutdown and the market impact Analysis on several stocks including Oracle (ORCL), Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), Apple (AAPL), and more And more! Apply to join the Inner Circle VTF® and work with David here.
Continue Reading -->These 3 Hot Tech Stocks Are About to Drop Hard
Traders are always asking “is this the market top?” Sami shows his methodology for knowing whether the market has topped out, along with his favorite swing ideas. Which includes shorts in the red-hot storage stocks Sandisk (SNDK), Seagate (STX), and Western Digital (WDC) Sami shares: Why he NEVER tries to pick a top when the daily chart is grinding higher Why last week was not the top A 2-bar pattern that can confirm a top Levels in SPY, QQQ, and IWM you need to watch right now Why Altice (ATUS) has a beautiful monthly chart An AI play giving a secondary entry Why Roku (ROKU) looks like it’s going higher A hot natural gas name that is setting up as a short An AI stock that just went parabolic The problem with storage stocks Sandisk (SNDK), Seagate (STX), and Western Digital (WDC) And MORE!
Continue Reading -->No Government, No Problem: Life Is Good!
The government shut down, but the bulls are open for business, sending stocks to all-time highs. Life is GOOD on Wall Street! So let’s talk about the 10 things you need to know right now, starting with… 1. Small Caps Are Rocking HARD Yes, the big caps are off to a great start this quarter, with 45 SPX stocks making record highs in the past 3 days. But the real story is the small caps rocking hard, with IWM outperforming SPY and QQQ by a decent margin. We’re also seeing strength in other rate sensitive groups like utilities and biotech. Why? Because the market’s still banking on rate cuts, which are good for small caps (at least according to conventional wisdom). The CME’s Fedwatch Tool shows a 97% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in October: Now, this begs an obvious question: could the October rate cut create a massive sell-the-news reaction? The answer is yes. Of course. But if everyone’s expecting a sell-the-news… maybe we just keep on rocking? 2. Next Friday Is Now Important Unfortunately, the October 3 Nonfarm Payrolls report has been delayed to the 10th, so we have to wait for one more week to confirm what we know – the job market stinks. And judging by the action in the small caps, the market is behaving like we got an awful jobs number that gives the Fed more room to cut. Or maybe the bulls are taking the attitude that “if the bad economic data isn’t coming out, the economy is actually good.” Who knows? But let’s look at my new #1 economic indicator: 3. The Slop Bowl Recession Is real Yes yes, I know the stock market is not the same as the economy. But if people can’t afford slop bowls, we have a problem. (a slop bowl is a mash-up of food from a fast casual restaurant, usually served in a bowl) Chipotle (CMG), Cava (CAVA), and Sweetgreen (SG) have been destroyed this year for various reasons including slowing sales and rising costs. And I’m calling this chart my “Slop Bowl Indicator:” If people can’t afford burrito bowls, what can they afford? 4. Bitcoin Is Going WILD Bitcoin hit a new record high above $123,000 on Friday as the market embraces an anti-establishment theme in the wake of the government shutdown. Ethereum and Solana also posted solid gains, though they are still below their own all-time highs. Will we see catch-up trades? Maybe – so put ’em on the radar. But do you know who’s still the boss in terms of performance? THIS: 5. Gold Is Still Dominating For all the talk about Bitcoin and Ethereum domination and crypto treasury companies, did you notice that gold is still kicking butt? It’s outperforming both the flagship cryptos with a 47% gain this year. And the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up a crazy 127%: What can we say? It’s been an amazing time for gold bugs, who waited for this type of action forever. 6. The Ultimate Trump Trade RAGES On It’s been a while since we checked in on the “Ultimate Trump Trade” a.k.a. the basket of stocks that benefit from financial market volatility and rising stock/crypto prices, including: Robinhood (HOOD) Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Coinbase (COIN) Charles Schwab (SCHW) Webull (BULL) They are having an amazing year, topped off by Robinhood’s 301% gain: By the way, did you know that Robinhood is the #1 performing S&P 500 stock of 2025? And just a few years ago, it was left for dead. Congrats to those who held on. 7. The Earnings Are Coming Aside from next week’s economic data (namely Powell speaking Thursday & NFP on Friday), the next big thing for the market is Q3 earnings season. The fireworks start Tuesday October 14 with JP Morgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), and Citigroup (C) all hitting in the morning. According to FactSet, Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to grow by 8.0%, up from 7.3% on June 30. So estimates have gone up. In recent quarters, estimates were crazy low, making it easy for companies to beat forecasts. And S&P 500 earnings crushed expectations overall. Now we have the opposite situation. I don’t like this. Not one bit. 8. Cathie Wood Is Having a Heck of a Year Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is the hot strategist of the moment, which is well-deserved because of his amazing calls. But Cathie Wood, hero of the post-pandemic bull market is killing it. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up 57% year-to-date: Tesla (TSLA), which is down year-to-date, is almost 12% of the ETF. So it was a boat anchor hanging from ARKK’s neck in terms of performance. And ARKK still killed it. Why? Because of big bets on winners like Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), Shopify (SHOP), and Palantir (PLTR). Well done! 9. It’s a Great Year for Garbage One of our favorite screens to run in Koyfin is for companies with these attributes: $2.5 billion or higher market cap $100 million in sales or less In other words, companies that don’t even have sales, let alone profits – that are highly valued in the stock market. We came up with 34 stocks and these are how they are doing in 2025: 28 are up and just 6 are down The average return is +95% (this includes the losers) Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc. (BMNR) is in #1 with a 630% gain, while the President’s Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) is in last place with a 49% loss. Here’s the full table: 10. Options Traders Need to Stop Doing THIS Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading recently sat down on the T3 Alpha Show to discuss what he learned as a trader for Goldman Sachs and on the CBOE Floor. If you want to stop losing big money in options, you must listen to Scott:
Continue Reading -->AVGO Is Going to $415
UPDATE: JR closed his AVGO long at $413 on December 10, 2025 Broadcom (AVGO) has been one of the best semiconductor stocks of 2025. But it’s not done. JR Romero argues that it’s going from $332 to $415: JR explains: Where the first stop for AVGO is on the way to the $415 target Why Zscaler (ZS) is going to $350 A REIT that could explode from current levels An unknown crypto platform play that has real room to rally A slow-motion “steamboat to China” name that is ready to move big Why he is bullish on Crowdstrike (CRWD) through December A quantum name that is ready for a major revival The reason he still likes UnitedHealth (UNH)
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