Blood On the Street?

March 7, 2025
/ By Scott Redler

We just got the February jobs report, which was mostly in-line with a headline number of 151K.

The big question everyone is asking me is “Is It Blood On The Street Time?”

For now, the answer is… no.

As of 9:23 am this morning, SPY is up about 20 cents and the QQQ's are flatlining.

So this does not feel like a major inflection point.

One buying scenario I had in mind was a real miss on the jobs report with a hard push down to the SPY $565 area and a close dead on the lows.

That was where I wanted to put money to work.

But the market does not always conform to my plans, so I'm instead going to map out levels and take what the day gives me.

Right now, SPY $570.12 is key. That's yesterday's low.

If the bears break us below that, there could be more downside to the $565 area, which could set up a good long opportunity.

I'm also watching these levels as key indicators for risk and sentiment:

QQQ: $496.20
IWM: $203.09
NVDA: $110
TSLA: $260
AMZN: $178
PLTR $78

The more of these levels break, the more aggressive the selling can get.

Broadcom (AVGO) is also key. If it can't hold its post-earnings gains, what would be bad for the market.

From a more macro perspective, the SPY is just 5% off the highs.

Historically, the average pullback is about 13%. And I think we'll see at least one like that this year, with the potential for SPY to see $542 or $528.

Remember, we're coming off a 25% gain in 2024 and a 26% gain in 2023, without much volatility along the way.

Sooner or later, things will average out and we'll see some downside.

But until those key levels I listed above break, we will not likely see a major inflection point.

This is why we focus on price action and not opinions. The market rarely does what you think it “should.”

*Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-03-07 at 9.19.55 AM

Blood On the Street?

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