Micron Put Apple to the Test
What a week! Micron (MU) dropped a blockbuster earnings, report, Apple (AAPL) raised prices, and oil came crashing down.
Let's talk about what's going on in this fun-filled market:
This Really Is the 90's Era All Over Again
It's been hard out there for the AI hyperscalers like Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT), who are spending ungodly amounts of cash on hardware like memory, storage, and networking equipment.
That means they are transferring their cash flow to companies like SanDisk (SNDK), Intel (INTC), Western Digital (WDC), and this week's earnings superstar Micron (MU).
So it's no shocker that the 2026 S&P 500 leaderboard looks like this:
Virtually all of these companies cashed in by selling picks and shovels in the 1990's Internet boom.
Now it's rinse and repeat with AI.
Instead of Pets.com and Ask Jeeves and American Online, the end application is Claude or ChatGPT!
Just look at Micron's monster earnings report on Wednesday.
They beat revenue expectations by 16%.
SanDisk beat by 26% in its last quarter.
These picks and shovels (DRAM, flash memory, and even freaking old-school hard drives) are getting so expensive that Apple (AAPL) just raised prices on MacBooks and iPads.
And that means…
Apple Is Being Put to the Test
Apple has an affluent user base that is willing to pay premium prices for a superior user experience.
And this MacBook/iPad price hike feels like a test for something even bigger: iPhone price increases.
Last quarter, Mac and iPad sales accounted for just 14% of total sales.
So when Apple drops its next earnings report (about one month from now), we'll see how much customers are willing to pay up for the brand.
I suspect Apple will do fine because its devices are more or less consumer staples.
Some people will choose cheaper models.
But who's going to give up their screens in 2026?
Or even worse – switch to Windows/Android?
I'm in the market for a new phone myself, and I'd rather pay an extra $100 to $300 to Apple than deal with an inferior user experience.
I'm an Apple shareholder, so I won't pretend I'm unbiased.
SpaceX Plays Great Defense
I sold my SpaceX (SPCX). And I might have screwed up.
Because this stock has been doing a great job of holding that $150 area:
We all know the issues with this company.
It's overvalued.
A ton of shares will hit the market when lockups expire.
We might not see a data center in space for many years.
But the buyers keep stepping up
This could be a situation where the bear case is way too obvious to be right.
At least for now.
Because those lockup expirations will pack a big punch.
Are We Getting the Fed Wrong?
The market continues to brace for higher rates.
The CME's FedWatch Tool shows that the market is pricing in a 77% chance of higher rates by year-end.
This hasn't changed much over the past month. But it is a pretty big sea change from earlier in the year, when we were debating how many cuts we'd see.
Though interestingly, this chart from Apollo has been making the rounds:
The market is almost always wrong about what the Fed will do, per Apollo: pic.twitter.com/yluOOKYynD
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 26, 2026
Apollo argues the market is usually wrong in sniffing out Fed policy.
Which makes sense because the Fed itself isn't very good at predicting anything.
Remember when inflation was “transitory” for about 98 straight years?
So maybe, just maybe the smart move is to bet on lower rates?
Sentiment Suddenly Flips Bullish. Sort Of.
The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 44.9% of investors are bullish on stocks.
This is a big jump from 36.9% last week.
And it's the first above-average bullish reading since May 13.
The market peaked on June 2 at SPX 7620, so it took a few weeks for the mood to catch up.
And during that time, the market's slipped a bit.
On balance, it would be better to have less bullish sentiment, because it implies there are still doubters on the sidelines.
However, this is still far from euphoric sentiment, which we haven't had in quite some time.
Meanwhile, CNN's Fear and Greed Index is at just 25, in the extreme fear category.
Keep in mind Fear and Greed is calculated by market indicators, while AAII is determined by an actual survey, reflecting people's actual feelings.
Add it up and investors/traders are ‘sorta' bullish.
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