10 Things You Need to Know Right Now – Trade War Edition!
What a week!
We just saw:
- Countless twists in the trade war
- President Trump make the most impactful market-related social media post ever
- The 3rd biggest up day since World War 2
- A crazy surge in gold
- A big surprise cooling in US inflation
- A positive kickoff to Q1 earnings season
So let's dig in to the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now
1. It's Time to Join Truth Social
On Wednesday, President Trump set a world record for most impactful social media post of all time when he announced a 90-day pause in his tariff war.
The S&P 500 rose 9.5% on Wednesday, which FactSet said is the 3rd biggest up day since World War 2.
With the benefit of hindsight, this announcement seemed telegraphed earlier that morning:
Needless to say… we should have listened.
And we should be following the President on Truth Social.
2. Deflation Might Be the Next Buzzword
This week, we had cool CPI and PPI reports in the US, possibly indicating that the inflation bogeyman is fading away – especially since oil prices are down 15% this month.
Core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year in March – the lowest level in 4 years.
Here's a chart from Investing.com showing the long-term trend:
Next Wednesday, we get CPI numbers from Great Britain and the Eurozone, which could confirm a global cooling of inflation.
The question now is “if we had a bull market during a period of high inflation, could we see a deflation-driven bear market?”
Traders have been eager for lower inflation readings.
Maybe they should be careful what they wish for…
We also have the ECB rate decision on Thursday – we’ll see just how frazzled our friends in Brussels are.
3. Earnings Season Is About to Heat Up
Friday’s big earnings reports from JPMorgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK) and others were strong, sending XLF up about 1.3% as of midday Friday:
But the big news was JPM’s Jamie Dimon saying S&P 500 earnings estimates will fall because of uncertainty driven by President Trump’s trade wars.
The challenge is figuring out how much more expectations need to fall, if at all.
According to FactSet, analysts forecast earnings growth of just 7.0% in Q1 — which is already down from 11.7% back on December 31.
And guidance has been bad. Of companies issuing Q1 EPS guidance, 68% were negative, which is higher than average.
Keep these names on your radar next week because they will move markets:
- Monday: Goldman Sachs (GS)
- Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C)
- Wednesday: ASML Holding (ASML)
- Thursday: Netflix (NFLX), Taiwan Semi (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), American Express (AXP)
ASML and Taiwan Semi in particular will be interesting because of their exposure to AI.
4. TLT Up Good, TLT Down Bad
The word on the street is that “something” is broken in the bond market.
There is chatter that China has been selling Treasuries as retaliation to the US.
Either way, the market does not want higher rates (rates rise when bond prices fall) so all eyes are on US Treasury yields.
Or if you want to keep this super simple, look at things this way:
- TLT Up = Good
- TLT Down = Bad
5. Gold Is Still a Monster… but It’s Gotten Trickier
Precious metals have been the biggest moneymaker in 2025, with gold surpassing JR Romero’s $3,225 target price on Thursday evening.
We spoke to JR for an update on gold.
He said “We need to see gold over $3,250 to keep it going. Treasuries are key. If the bond market doesn’t straighten out, gold will be in trouble.”
JR predicted the move to $3,000+ way back on April 10, 2024 – so be smart and listen to him.
Want to learn how to trade with X-Ray Vision? Check out JR’s Tape Reading Course. It’s LIVE!
6. No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength
Bitcoin’s staying power this month is the most undercovered story in the market.
Crypto skeptics have considered Bitcoin just another risk asset like a tech stock or junk bond.
But it’s been holding steady this month with a small gain despite a -5.1% drop in SPY.
So maybe Bitcoin is turning into the “digital gold” people have dreamed it could be.
7. The Elevated VIX May Stay Elevated
On Monday, the VIX hit a high of 60.42 with the term structure fully inverted.
In other words… maximum stress.
The VIX rises when traders buy SPX put options for downside protection.
The more they pay up for those put options, the higher the VIX goes.
Extreme VIX readings often represent great buying opportunities for equities.
However, during periods of extreme chaos (think the 2020 Covid decline or the 2008-2009 crisis) the VIX stayed north of 50 for months.
If the trade war rages on, the VIX could stay elevated for far longer than you think.
On the flip side of this…
8. Awful Consumer Confidence May Be a Good Thing
On Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 50.8, the lowest level since June 24, 2022.
That date was not the market bottom.
But it was close to it.
You can’t time the lows with indicators like this – but it’s just another sign that stress is at extreme levels.
That means more upside fuel for a squeeze should the US resolve trade tensions with China.
So what’s squeezable?
9. Put These Names on Your Radar…
We ran a screen for S&P 500 stocks that were up more than 30% in 2024, which are down more than 20% in 2025.
We can up with 23 names:
- Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
- Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA)
- Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
- United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL)
- Arista Networks Inc (ANET)
- Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)
- KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR)
- Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)
- Synchrony Financial (SYF)
- Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)
- NetApp Inc. (NTAP)
- PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL)
- ServiceNow Inc. (NOW)
- Blackstone Inc. (BX)
- Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW)
- Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO)
- Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
- Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)
- Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (HBAN)
- Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG)
- Vistra Corp. (VST)
They may rip HARD if we get real resolution on trade as money rotates back to past winners.
10. Disney (DIS) May Become the Most Hated Stock of All Time… and Could Be a Buy
Disney stock is down in the dumps following the failures of Snow White and Captain America: Brave New World, and China limiting film imports amid the tariff fight.
Plus it looks like the latest Marvel film, Thunderbolts, will bomb next month.
Could all the negative press mark a bottom?
Because the stock is approaching long-term support in the $78 area:
With its PE and RSI around multi-year lows… value buyers may step up.
Have a great weekend!
P.S. Want to learn how to trade with X-Ray Vision? Check out JR’s Romero's Tape Reading Course. It’s LIVE!
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