81% of Traders Are Bearish


Bullish sentiment just fell a cliff.

We created this sentiment survey in October 2021, so we have a short history. 

Still, it's fascinating that we have all-time lows in bullish sentiment on the SPX, Bitcoin, Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA).

Meanwhile, bullish sentiment on gold and oil hit record highs. Let's dig in. 

SPX Mood Is Super Bearish

Last week, bullish sentiment on the S&P 500 was 58%.

This week, it dropped to just 19% - by far the lowest reading we've ever had in our admittedly short 18 week history.

Traders appear to be spooked by the market dropping into the end of last week, combined with existing concerns over inflation and central banks removing the punch bowl. Plus, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is adding tension.

Bitcoin Sentiment Collapses

Bitcoin sentiment hit a record low this week, with just 30% of surveyed respondents saying they think it will go up over the next 30 days.

This appears related to a general fear of risk assets -- which is the big theme this week.

Apple Bears Are Here

Apple (AAPL) delivered a monster earnings report 3 week ago... but it doesn't seem to be helping. Just 32% of respondents think the world's biggest stock will rise, 

Tesla Gets No Love

Tesla (TSLA) really has a lack of love, with just 22% of traders saying they are bearish.

Gold Bulls Rise

With traders seeking safety, and gold surging last week, bullish sentiment on gold hit record highs at 81%.

Traders Still Love Oil

Oil has raged higher in 2022 to hit 8-year highs, and as you might expect, energy stocks have led the market.

So it's no surprise that oil remains in favor, with 80% of surveyed traders expecting oil to rise. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a driver of oil prices, since there are worries about supply disruptions in the region. 

What Happens Now?

Traders are very, very bearish. And that's no surprise given the aforementioned concerns over inflation and central banks pulling back after a very long bull market.

Sometimes -- but not always -- the market bottoms when traders show maximum fear. 

It will be interesting to see if that's the case this time around.

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