Welcome to the results of the first ever T3 Trader Sentiment Survey!
Most sentiment surveys focus on a single asset like the S&P 500 or a broad generality like "the stock market." But our survey measures your opinions on 6 different instruments:
- The S&P 500
- Bitcoin
- Apple (AAPL)
- Tesla (TSLA)
- Gold
- Oil
We are also using a 30-day time horizon to get a sense of traders' near-term expectations for the market.
You'll also notice that we don't offer a "neutral" option. Instead, we have a "not sure" option. This is to reduce the number of people answering questions about assets they don't follow. And it helps us focus on people with strong opinions.
And to help you make better sense of traders' feelings, we include a Bull-Bear ratio for each instrument. For example, on the S&P 500, we have 4.1 bulls for every bear. While on Gold, there are just 1.2 bulls for every bear.
Want to participate in next weekend's survey? Cick here to sign up so you can participate.
Starting next week, we'll begin sharing historical data so you can better use our survey information in your own analysis.
Now, let's jump into this week's data:
The Big Picture
This chart gives you a big picture view of how traders view the 6 assets in our survey:
Now that you've seen the 30,000 foot view, let's drill down to individual assets.
Trader Are Bullish on Stocks
SPX Bull-Bear Ratio: 4.1 to 1
There's been a lot of concerns about inflation, energy prices, the debt ceiling, and supply chain disruptions heading into earnings season.
But based on our survey results, traders don't seem worried. A whopping 69% are bullish, while a mere 18% are bearish.
That's more than 4 bulls for every bear!
Bitcoin Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.3 to 1
Traders are positive on Bitcoin, but less so than they are on stocks.
58% see Bitcoin going up in the next 30 days.
Apple Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.8 to 1
Apple is a favorite of individual investors... or so we thought.
While 69% of traders are bullish on the market overall, just 59% are bullish on Apple.
We'll see if Apple' October 18 'Unleashed' opinion changes any minds.
Tesla Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.2 to 1
Tesla (TSLA) is another cult favorite.
And while Tesla stock has been on a tear... you wouldn't know it by looking at the data.
Like Apple, Tesla is less loved than the S&P 500.
Gold Bull-Bear Ratio: 1.2 to 1
Gold is the least-liked asset in our survey,
Just 38% of traders are bullish on gold.
That's no surprise given that Gold is down -7% year-to-date vs. a +19% gain for the S&P 500.
Gold Bull-Bear Ratio: 1.9 to 1
Traders are fairly positive on oil, with 54% of respondents saying oil will go up in the next 30 days.
No shocker - oil's been tearing it up because of the global energy crunch.
And fun fact: energy is the top performing stock market sector in 2021. XLE is up 51% while OIH Is up 45%.
For reference, the F.A.N.G. stocks (FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) are up 25% on average, and the SPY is up 19%.
Make Sure You Join!
Want to make your voice heard in our weekly surveys? Click here to join our panel.
As time goes on, we'll introduce a historical database so you can do your own analysis!
Thanks for reading!