By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: 08/18/2022
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The Trend Is Bending
We sniffed out the Trap Door buy setup on July 14th before it happened saying if the SPX broke below a rising trend line from the June 17th low and quickly regained it, a Trap Door buy signal would be triggered.
An hourly SPX shows a rising trend line from the important July 14th low from where a Runaway Move started.
Nothing has broken yet. However, Wednesday’s intraday 5 wave decline is the first sign that the market is reversing trend.
As well yesterday’s A/D ratio of 0.23:1 is the strongest downside breadth since mid-June.
I recalculated the 90-degree and 180 decrement levels down from this week's high.
They are 4258 and 4193.
The SPX bounced after striking 4253 virtually a direct hit with 90 degrees down.
The index went green but in a conspicuous change in character the Buy the Dip fizzled.
180 degrees down is just above the horizontal trend line on the above chart which marks the early June peak--the last swing high at 4177.
Breakage below the early June high should see the bear come out of hibernation.
According to the Principle of Squares, breakage below 4193 suggests the 4177 early June high will fail to target 360 degrees down from this week's high which is 4065.
We have a possible Cascade setup on deck as a failure below Phil D Gap at 4125 will trigger a Jump the Creek sell opening the door to 4065 quickly.
In sum, yesterday we stated that a negative breadth at a rally high was not a good omen.
Likewise, to recap, bad things happen when the markets rise in tandem with the VIX.
Both of those “omens” came to fruition on Wednesday.
But it could have been a lot worse if AAPL hadn’t bucked Wednesday’s tape.
That said 360 degrees up from AAPL’s 128 low is 178.
Yesterday AAPL hit 176.
Interestingly, 176 “points to” September 3rd the 93 anniversary of the 1929 peak.
Last year we noted that 93 is square October 24th, the date of the first big crash in 1929, the other being October 29th.
Circle those dates on your calendar…especially if AAPL and the SPX peak on September 3 this year.