The Secret Of Silver’s Surge

In the May 10  Hit and Run Morning Report, Gold Bull Resumes, we flagged a new upleg in the precious metals was  on deck.

Rather than walk thru the setup again, see the report here.

Let’s take a look at the GLD and SLV dailies since that call.

7 trading days before Friday’s OpEX on May 9^th, SLV recaptured its 20 day moving average and has not looked back since.

The Wave count  indicates we’re in the heart of a powerful Wave 3 advance. The  rally off the March low begins a 1, 2 and a 1,2  or Wave 1 was as labeled on the chart…even more dynamic.

With the liftoff on May 9^th we began to pound the table as it felt like a drive over the large range reversal from April 12 was on the table.

Below are a sample of tweets from the Hit and Run Private Twitter Feed last week outlining the expected acceleration.

My expectation was  an explosive move would play out when the April 12 reversal was taken out.

Why?

Because fast moves come from false moves.

If it was proven that the April 12 reversal was false, the presumption was a fast move would erupt.

And erupt it did.

I call a Reversal of a Reversal a Keyser Soze from the film The Usual Suspects.

In the past a large range signal bar reversal like April 12 would have put the nail in the precious metals coffin.

My gut is the some of the big banks slammed silver on April 12 to put a lid on it.

But more on that below.

After Friday’s rip, the silver bears may be thinking “How do you shoot the Devil in the back? What if you miss?”

That’s because not only did SLV not go into a bear phase following the April 12 Gilligan sell signal, but on Friday it offset the April 12 sell signal with authority…and on a Gap & Go knifing higher 6% on the day and breaking above a 1 year trend channel.

I love it when a plan comes together.

Pulling back the lens to check a weekly SLV shows the major low at 16.19 on September 1, 2022.

The first secret silver revealed was the large range outside up week, the week of Feb 12, 2024 from a 3^rd higher weekly low since the Oct 2022 low.

Fast moves often come from 3^rd higher lows.

After a Pause Week, SLV immediately turned its 3 Week Chart up on the week of 3/13.

This occurred right at the long term Tops Line so the normal expectation was this long term red trend line would elicit respect.

It did.

SLV turned its weekly chart down, coiling for an attack of the breakout pivot (the red Tops Line).

The next week was the motherlode.

SLV exploded from 23.50 to 27.25 where it put in the daily signal reversal bar on April 14^th.

The reversal produced 2 consecutive weekly lower lows satisfying my Plus One/Minus Two Weekly Buy Swing Method.

This was silvers 2^nd secret.

Silver’s 3^rd secret is that last week squared out with the 16.19 low from Oct 2022.

Time/Price. square-outs can be highs or accelerations or lows.

In this instance it’s obvious it wasn’t going to be a low.

30 squares out with the 16.19 low. It looks like the SLV’s agenda is a drive to 30 over coming hour’s day’s.

In the Hit and Run Private Twitter Feed we have posted the near term projections based on the monthly chart and the Square of 9 Wheel.

The 4^th secret of silver is that the thieves who manipulate bullion quotes may be losing their grip.

Metals bulls have long been perplexed how prices stay range bound when demand for physical appeared to overwhelm dealer supplies.

Blame paper proxies : may if not most investors would rather store the stuff in virtual form than pay to insure it in a rented vault.

The metals bankers love it that way, since they can sit on actual bars. Loaning them out at interest, while traders trade up a whirlwind of NEAR gold and Near silver pledges and IOU’s.

You know what they say. “He that sells what isn’t his’n, must buy it back or go to prison.”

The sharp rally lately has threatened to upend this “gentleman’s” “arrangement” by increasing demand for actual bullion.

Ordinarily, the thieves in the banking cabal have relied on a Mad Hare drive metals down the rabbit hole with an overnight slam-dunk.

He seems to appear on the scene whenever they pull their bids and let prices plunge.

Within the last month there have been such air-pockets in gold of $80 and $130 and similar downdrafts in silver.

Unfortunately for the bullion bankers, prices have rebounded in each instance too qhickly to allow them to replenish their hocked up inventories for a bargain.

Things have changed. The metals are out for revenge.

Bulls can smell blood in the water.

Gold and silver have jumped the shark.

Now it looks like the scoundrel shorts are about to get poleaxed.

Silver is up a stunning 28% since late March.

Silver’s secret is out of the bag.

The 5^th secret of silver is that May is the 7^th month from the October low and we are seeing panic in keeping with 7 being the number of panic…a Buying Panic.

The end of May is 90 days/degrees from late February where the panic started.

There will be pullbacks…but you ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

Below are some of the positions Hit and Run Trading members have taken to capitalize on the precious metals run…some of these reflect only the most recent positions as we have booked some profits throughout April and May.

GDXU long from 42.45 currently 46.80

RGLD long from 124 currently 134.86

GLD  long May 31   217.50  calls from 2.59 current P&L + $4.41

GLD long  May 31   220 calls from 1.78 current P&L $3.27

UGL long from 76.71 currently 85.75

WPM long from 53.89 currently 57.88

GDXJ long May 17   42 calls from 1.35 closed for an average 1.46 gain (110&)

AGQ long from 37.99 currently at 45.03

AGI long from 12.86 currently 17.48