By: Jeff Cooper

Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - April 30, 2024

Is This The Week FOMC Becomes Fear Of Missing Crash?

A cluster of cycles was due to top in April and exert their downside influence opening the door for a waterfall decline in May.

One of those cycles is the 84 year cycle which is important because 12 X the key 7 year cycle is 84 years.

Why is 7 a key cycle?

First, 7 is the number of time and the fatal number, the number of completion as God created the world in 7 days.

W D Gann stated that the Bible was a book of coded cycles.

The Bible mentions “Time, Times and half Time”.

This is 360 degrees, 720 degrees and 180 degrees or 3 ½ years.

So two of these 3 ½ year cycles (a sinusoidal wave) is 7 years.

7  years is 364 weeks. This ties to the number of days in a year as in a “day for a year” and it ties to a circle or cycle.

Wheels within Wheels.

12 is the number of moonths in a year and represents the 12 signs of the zodiac.

12 X 7 is 84 as offered above.

84 years ago in May 1940 the DJIA crashed from 152 to 110.51, approximately 27%... IN ONE MONTH.

That’s a crash.

It is reminiscent of the March 2020 crash.

49 months (7 squared months) later is April 2024.

On April 4th,  the SPX carved out a large range outside down day down below losing its 20 day moving average with conviction for the first time since last October’s low.

On April 15th, the SPX knifed below its 50 day line, losing it for the first time since last October’s low.

Now the SPX is backtesting a Bowtie of the 20 and 50 moving averages.

The presumption is it rolls over from here.

As well, the SPX is at an important pivot---it is 180 degrees up off the 4/19 low and 180 degrees down off the March all-time high.

It’s in the Wheelhouse for a turn.

Moreover, the SPX Weekly Swing Chart turned up on Monday.

In other words the index traded above last weeks high.

If the market is in a strong downtrend a turn up of the Weeklies should define a high…soon in terms of time and price.

That does mean we can’t go higher first. It also does not rule out the prospect of two consecutive higher weekly highs first which would carve out a weekly Minus One/Plus Two sell setup.

This is because the 3 Week Chart is pointing down and trade next week above this weeks highs satisfies the Plus Two part of the sell setup.

Checking the weeklies for the last major high from July 2023 shows a similar pattern to what presents currently.

The 3 Week Chart turned down directly off the July top.

It declined towards the 20 week moving average.
This time around the 20 week m.a. was fully tested.
After the drive down toward the 20 week m.a. in the summer of 2023 a rebound sawy the weeklies turn up.

Notice that although the indes puwhe3de q little higher, the SPX never traced out 2 consecutive weekly higher highs on the rebound.

The turn up of the Weekly Swing Chart essentially defined the pivot high.

Again, Monday the SPX turned its Weekly Swing Chart up.

The market rolled over and looked like a reversal day was on the table but the SPX rebounded sharply off its 20 hour moving average.

That said it looks like a clear A B C Measured Move off the April 19th low.

The A wave is 135 points.

The C wave started at 4990 on April 25th.

Adding 135 points to 4990 gives 5125.

Monday’s high 5125.49.

We’re in the Wheelhouse for a turn.

If we get a waterfall decline similar to May 1940, lets see what the Sq of 9 has to say.

The all time high is 525/526 (5265).

This is 180 degrees straight across and opposite 481, the January 2022 all-time high.

Interesting that both highs are on the same vector.

Both numbers point to May 17/ May 19th…which ties to the May 17th anniversary of the NYSE.

The presumption is a waterfall has the potential to “cube-out” with a drop of 540 degrees.

540 degrees down from 526 is 398 (3980).

This obviously represents a complete retracement of the hyperbolic move from October 2023 low to the March 2024 peak.
Breakage below the 481 square, the 2022 high, is waterfall alert time.

This happens to tie to the last breakout on January 19th at 4802.

The expectation is that prior resistance (4800 region) becomes new support.

If that does not happen, if we get below 4800, it’s a blaring alarm that the downtown door is open.

In sum we have some synergy with this January 19th breakout, the recent April 19th low, that points to the aforesaid May 19th time-frame.

Whether markets get hit hard in May or just pullback to the 4800 region hopefully Mr. Market tips his hand early this week.

Tomorrow’s report walks thru the T Rex in the ointment as to the crash cycle and how a trough in May could open the door for a last ditch run into August 19 + or – when Jupiter is square Saturn.

These are W D Gann’s Chronocators and we must watch this influence forward and backwards in time.

Suffice to say that August 19th is 90 degrees square May 19th.

We have FOMC this week.

I can’t remember a time when there was an arguably equal case for a cut, a hike or no move at all.

Is JayPo in a box?

Is this the week FOMC becomes Fear Of Missing Crash?

What could roil markets in May?

We have a currency crisis with the dollar skyrocketing against the yen.

Will Japan devalue creating an air-pocket mirroring the China devaluation in the summer of 2015 causing a 10 drop in 3 days?

Along with Wednesday’s FOMC decision,  this week we’ve got Super Micro Computer’s earnings out after the close today as well as AMD’s.

90 degrees up from AMD’s recent 145 low is 157, 180 degrees up is 159.

AMD broke out above 157 on Monday and pulled back to successfully test it following thru to close at session highs.

The door looks open to Phil D Gap at 169.