By: Jeff Cooper

Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - April 23, 2024


The SPX satisfied a 360 degree decline on Friday and rallied Monday.

4970 is 360 degrees down from 5265.

On Monday morning on the Hit and Run Private Twitter Feed we offered during the initial spike up that our expectation is that we’d probably get a “Feinting Spell” intraday where it would seem like the market was going to repeat the action of the prior 6 days, rolling over from a pop up open.

We went on to say that if we got a pullback into Phil D Gap (the open gap from the morning) that held we would likely see a drive higher.

Our assessment was that such a Side Door Entry would see the SPX rally 90 degrees up from Friday’s low to at least 5022, but that if the SPX were to rally 90 degrees off the perfected/idealized low of 4970  the projection was 5040.

The SPX ran to 5038..84 before retreating to close at 5010.

Another pulls eye for my Square of 9 Wheel.

I truly don’t know how anyone trades without it.

With Monday’s rally the SPX turned its Daily Swing Chart up on trade above the prior days high for the first time in SEVEN days.

That said, the index could not muster a close above Friday’s high.

This market is extraordinarily weak.

Essentially, the SPX was rejected from a backtest of a broken 6 month trend channel.

The SPX is heavy, which is often its complexion before panic.

Even in the eye of the hurricane in February/March 2020 the SPX was able to carve out 3 consecutive higher daily highs thereby turning its 3 Day Chart up.

The crash phase of the decline followed.

I don’t know if the 2020 analogue is on the table.

But as alerted this February, 49 Gann Panic Zone months from the March 2020 crash is April  2024.

Knowledge of that one cycle allowed members to sidestep the current downdraft and capitalize on the turmoil.

As bearish as Hit and Run is we played longs in ANF, WFRD and LNW on Monday.

I don’t know if we’re going to get a 1 day wonder rally or a few more days, but I am convinced we in the eye of the hurricane.

If the market should get some traction i doubt it eclipses 5120. That is 180 degrees down from high.

Maybe something, maybe nothing but today is precisely 49 months from the crash low on March 23, 2020.

Of course we have an approximate one month offset as that high was in February whereas our recent high was March.

In sum, after the Crash of 1987 ,  The Working Group was created to prevent another Friday/Monday Panic,  They’ve done a good job.

But they haven’t done a good job of preventing panics overall.

That’s not normal profit taking in gold on a Sunday night.

But it underpins the picture the powers that be may be trying to paint, that there is no reason to panic.

Try as they may, the fuse has been lit on a raging metals bull.

If I am correct despite the large range reversals in gold and silver on April 12th,  the likelihood is this consolidation will be more brief than most think.

Let’s take a look at the charts.