By: Jeff Cooper

Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - March 21, 2024


“On my command unleash hell”
-The Gladiator

“This is a critical week. If we’re going to get the ‘natural progression’ of a champagne run ala 1929, 2000, Feb 2020, and 2007, this should be the week it starts.

My expectation is that we do get a Buying Climax…

If we have the potential for a Super Cycle Top here (which I believe is possible) then the presumption is we will not end with a whimper, but a bang.

In sum clearing the SPX all time high from March 8 opens the door for accelerated momentum.”

I went on to add: “One last reason for Champagne.”

We wrote the above in Monday’s Hit and Run Report.

The poet T.S. Eliot wrote: “This is the way the world ends. This is the way the world ends. This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper.”

Eliot is one of my favorite poets, but he was a banker, not a trader.

History tells us that bull runs end with a bang, a parabolic cherry on top.

  “My expectation has been for new highs into April…

We must be mindful the 519 (5190) the all time high (as of Monday 3/18) squares March 18th

This is all the more reason that if the SPX clears 519, we could get a run for the roses…

As well clearing the 5190 all-time high Key Reversal Day triggers a Reversal of a Reversal---what I call a Keyser Soze. Fast moves come from false signals so clearing the March 8th signal reversal bar should see acceleration…

From the October 2022 low of 3491 to the July 2023 high is 1116 points.

Adding that 1116 range to the October 2023 low gives 5220 for a Measured Move.

Breakage above 5220 that sticks suggests a run for the roses.”

We wrote the above in Tuesday’s Hit and Run Report.

“Yesterday SPX broke out above an hourly 3 point trend line setting a record closing high.

We have an outside up day with a Peekaboo High continuation signal---a new closing high but not a new intraday high…If the market is going to blow-off, if we’re going to see this thing pop its cork, then it needs to follow thru from yesterday’s breakout soon.”

We wrote the above in Wednesday mornings Hit and Run Report.

So what has happened.

The market unleashed hell on the bears after Jerry the Gladiator did a dove in sheeps clothing impersonation yesterday.

Tuesday’s breakout over triple tops followed thru.

We got a textbook FOMC Cha Cha to a record high.

In sum the SPX has turned its Weekly Swing Chart down only twice since the October 2023 low.

The turndown in the first week of January defined a low and  saw the index explode around 450 points into February before consolidating

The only other turndown occurred the first week of March.

A similar Measured Move 450 point drive from the recent 5057 early March low ties to the 5500 region.

Interestingly the first run up from last October’s low into the end of December was 676 points.

This ties to precisely to the closing low on March 9, 2009 low.

That close was 676.53

You can’t make this stuff up. Time and Price synchronicity is behind every major move in the market.

As legendary market seer W.D. Gann wrote, “When time and price square-out expect a change in trend.”

When the SPX extended from a 676 point advance into late December at 4793 testing the 48i18 all-time high from early January 2022 essentially 2 years or 720 degrees earlier, it opened the door for higher prices.

Our Square Of 9 Wheel has a projection to when and where this melt -up will culminate.

They’ll be Yellen from the roof tops.