By: Jeff Cooper

Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - March 14, 2024

The Trend Is Your Friend Until It Bends At The End

On the heels of Friday’s Key Reversal Day in the SPX (and NDX) we got a Plus One/Minus Two buy setup up on Monday.

As well the index tailed up on Monday leaving a 180 buy setup.

The combo produced an explosive rally on Tuesday.

We are in a technical crosscurrent.”


Yesterday was either a Pause Day following Tuesday’s all-time new high close or we are tracing out a bearish test of Friday’s Key Reversal.

Consistent with the idea of a Pause Day is that there was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Wednesday suggesting a large price move is likely over coming days.

An expansion of volatility after Wednesday’s contraction in volatility.

Yesterday’s NR 7 Day, the narrowest range in seven sessions suggests Wednesday was a Pause Day before higher.

But of course higher is also in keeping with the idea of a test and test failure of Friday’s 5189 record intraday high.

This notion is consistent with the Time/Price square-out we’ve been pointing to, namely, 519/520 (5190-5200) squares out with March 14/15. Of course the 15th is Opex and the ides of March.

We’ve only had a few thousand Ides Of March’s since Caesar, but this one may be a date with destiny in the markets.


Through 5200 with authority could put bears and bulls alike on their heels in a parabolic last ditch rally into April.

As you know that has been my expectation, but my thinking was we’d get a shake-out first pulling the rubber band back.

Now, the shake-out seems less likely given we only have two sessions left into the idealized cycle turning point for Friday. That said it could extend into Monday and we still get our shake-out.

It is going to depend on whether we get a Test Failure of last Friday’s Key Reversal.

A nominal new high with a strong reversal back thru Friday’s 5189 high would produce a Soup Nazi sell signal. At a Time Price square-out to boot.

That said, as offered, momentous momentum through last Friday’s high and we could go vertical.

That may be the missing piece for a top because if this is a Super Cycle Top on the table then it follows that it would end with a bang not a whimper.

We saw these kind of vertical ‘bangs’ at the 1929 high, the 2000 high and as shown earlier this week the January 2nd to January 26th vertical run that put the cherry on top of the Runaway Move from August 21st, 2017.

The October 11, 2007 top also arrived after a 3 week surge.

Interestingly, October 11 turned out to be a Key Reversal Day.

The market didn’t fall apart immediately. It backed and filled before pulling back and then carved out a right shoulder on Halloween. It was as I titled my report that day…A Dead Man’s Party.

W D Gann wrote often of the important of anniversary dates. This is because of the Solar Return.
The  early October 2007 top was a mirror image of the early October 2002 bottom.

As well they were both Time/Price square-outs.

Of course this March 23rd  (when we were a lonely voice forecasting  an explosion to 4000 within a year) is the anniversary of the Covid Crash low in 2020.

This March 23rd it will be  4th anniversary…or 48 moonths.

So APRIL will be the 49th potential Panic Cycle in months.

So we have our parameters. Markets often times play out in threes you heard me say before, be it 3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months. This is the derivation of my 3 Day Chart, 3 Week Chart and 3 Month Chart and the 1 2 3 Pullback and Snapback setups.

The next 3 weeks into the April 8th eclipse should be very interesting.

In sum, while we have been in a persistent advance since late October 2023 we have not seen a Buying Climax.

A weekly SPX shows just how well the Weekly Swing Chart has defined the persistence advance.

The Weekly Swing Chart has turned down only twice in this run. Each instance has defined a low.

When we see a change in this behavior we will know the trend is bending.

As you recall in early December I wrote that from around December 20/21 we should see a basing period for 3 to 4 weeks followed by a series of Pops and Drops within the context of a persistent up trend. That’s exactly what we’ve seen.

How did I forecast this? A confluence of Time Factors and patterned behavior.
Markets are deterministic, not random.

Take another look at the above chart. Notice the number of Breakaway Gaps.

In particular, notice the Breakaway Gap to the downside on Feb 13 quickly offset by the large upside gap to new highs on Feb 22.

In December I wrote that my expectation was for this series of Pops and Drops should last into April/May.So far we’re on track.

Notice how the close only trend line from the October low cuts right between the spikage up and down since the January ‘basing period’ culminated.

That Line Of Least Resistance is going to be pivotal going forward should we see an acceleration—A subsequent failure back below this Line Of Least Resistance following a Climax Run is no Bueno.