Gold Is Noticing

In late December I shared this chart of the SPX.

I pointed out the price channel and showed the advance from June 2022 to August 2022 that set the initial two points for the price channel that emerged over time.

The initial move was 689 points.

From the recent October 2023 low I showed that a similar move of 689 points projected to 4793.

4793 became the high on December 28^th and the market reversed off that price target and fell to 4682 in one week.

I’ve found these type of Measured Moves to be very reliable in the past.

Yesterday the SPX tested 4793 early in the session before reversing with authority selling off to our downside tweeted pivot of 4740 precisely.

It then bounced back to close at 4780.

The chart below focuses on the 2018 Christmas Crash low and the 2020 high and crash low.

These are fairly historic turning points and I was interested to see if a Fibonacci price extension using these three points would produce any useful information.

As you can see, there’s nothing really exciting until you look at the 250% price extension line (upper two red arrows).

The 250% Fibonacci PRICE extension line stopped the powerful advance from the 2020 low right in its tracks in Dec 2021/Jan 2022.

As of late December 2023 the same line rejected the two recent price advances.

This got me curious, so I kept looking.

The chart below is the same chart…except that I am now focusing on Fibonacci ATIME extensions.

Here I sued the 2018 Christmas low and the 2020 high and low…and didn’t see anything that caught my eye until I realized that the early 2020 high, the January 2022 high and the recent December 2023 high were all 23 months apart.

That got my attention especially when I saw that the number 23 aligns with/points to December 28^th region.

Remember late December is the anchor, the pivot at the Dec 2020 low (and in 2021) and in 2023 seems to be important with the SPX testing its all time high.

The next chart has the same channel as the above chart where the initial 689 point advance predicted the recent high.

What blew my mind is that 689 squares-out/points to December 28^th.

689 also aligns with/points to March 24^th.

Recently we showed how March has been an important turning point so often since the March 24^th, 2000 Bubble Top in tech.

We had March 2003, March 2009, March 2011, March 2016 (impulse higher), Mafrch 2020 and March 2023.

The Macdaddy’s were March 2000 and March 2020…20 year cycle high to low.

This March is the 24^th anniversary of the March 24^th, 2000 top.

This is a natural time cycle as there are 24 hours in a day.

It will be important to gauge the price action at the Spring Equinox in 2024.

Next I did a smaller scale Fibonacci price extension from the October 2022 low to the July 2023 high.

This was a 1116 point move and its 61.8% price extension is at 4793.

Do you remember that number? That’s the exact same projection of the earlier 689 point move.

To me, that gives a lot more credibility to the 4793 region which has already proven itself in the short term.

It looks like some serious resistance.

Of course if it is cleared with momentum and sustained it indicates a leg higher to our 5000 to 5200 level of lore.

Below I have a daily SPX. It shows a rising wedge pattern with upper trend line resistance at around 4811.

At the very least this resistance in sync with the January 2022 all time high should produce a correction down to the 4660 region.

Remember we have a 90 day/degree cycle from July 27^th to October 27^th which targets late January.

If yesterday’s reversal sees downside follow thru late January sets up as a High to Low to Low cycle.

Yesterday’s initial price reversal left a Soup Nazi sell knifing thru the prior late Dec high.

However, the rebound complicates the path from here.

It looked like a second mouse move below the 20 day was on the table, but the index rebounded nicely off the 20 day…for the moment.

So we have an outside down day with a rebound back toward the top of the range.

Today is important. If Thursday’s lows are violated it opens the door for a plunge.

Why?

1)      The SPX traded to a new intraday HIGH on Thursday, its highest level since early 2022.

2)      The NYMO (NYSE McClellan Oscillator) closed at a new low for the move on Thursday….the lowest since October.

3)      The NAMO (NAZ McClellan) closed at a new low for the move on Thursday…lthe lowest since August.

Breadth leads price. Breadth is collapsing. We have a double Plunge Signal on deck as of last night.

Gold is noticing.

In the last few days we’ve pointed to bullish pattern in GLD.

From the October low GLD has carved out what promises to be a 3^rd higher low.

Fast moves are often produced by 3^rd higher lows.

As well on Thursday GLD left a Lizard buy signal at its 50 day moving average.

Follow-through is key.

This morning gold is gapping up $19.