By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - December 4, 2023
Slowly At First Then All At Once
With bond markets having been smacked in the last few years and equities sporting extremely high valuations amidst looming economic challenges, the attraction of gold is growing.
As well investors remain seemingly oblivious to one of the oldest biggest risks: war, spreading war.
What are the odds of one of the multiple conflicts spreading or hotspot igniting?
These geopolitical risks overlay the brewing radical, systemic, socioeconomic shifts emerging as all to comfortable history-blind societies wrestle with challenging demographics, the need to rebuild their underlying energy systems and allocating the losses that have built up beneath the surface of a four decade debt-lollapalooza.
As the old market saw goes, I know what will happen, tell me when it will happen.
Why did GLD explode from an early October low?
The major November 2022 low was in the 150 region.
150 squares early October.
When GLD broke its summer lows going into early October, it was hard to find a positive voice---much less a view for a rocket.
In a word, most thought I was delusional.
Yet I offered that there was a strong likelihood the drop into early October 2023 was a final flush, a Bear Trap and that knifing back above the summer lows around 175 would burnish that Bear Trap.
From 150/151 a 360 degree advance is 203/204.
180 degrees straight across and opposite the October 5th low of 168.30 is 196.
90 degrees/days from October 5th ties to early January which is the two year anniversary of the all-time SPX high
That said, I don’t think we want to get too deep into the weeds on this breakout.
It is best to believe what we see until proven otherwise and.
Hit and Run suggested months ago that the initial leg of the meltup targets 540 degrees up from 150 which is the 232 region. Initial.