Cycles and the Cardinal Cross Combine for a Pivot:  Rally Attempt Or Acceleration Lower?

As tweeted last week, the 60, 40, and 20 year cycles point to a low of some kind early this week.

There is an outside shot of ‘left translation’ with cycles and that a short-term low hit on Friday.

We could get a countertrend bounce today with a hard flush on Tuesday.

That said, the SPX closed below its 50 day average on the Friday weekly closing basis.

As well it turned its 3 Day Chart down on Friday (3 consecutive lower daily lows) after turning it back up on Dec 13.

The immediate turn back down in the 3 Day Chart is consistent with a fast impulsive move lower within the context of a Wave 3 of 3 decline.

A bounce up toward short-term resistance at 3900 would leave the SPX vulnerable to a 3^rd of a 3^rd of a 3^rd wave decline-- a powerful downdraft.

Remember that this December 21^st is on the Cardinal Cross on my Square of 9 Wheel.

The Cardinal Cross are the lines formed with the Spring and Fall Equinoxes and the Summer and Winter Solsitices. The dates and the numbers on these dates for strong ‘natural’ support and resistance.

As well, December 21^st, 2020 was the last Jupiter/Saturn conjunction, which is part of Gann’s Master Time Factor.

9 months prior to that conjunction was the Covid Crash low.

Approximately 12 months later was the SPX all-time high on January 4^th, 2022.

The NAZ high came on November 22.
The 1 year/360 day/degree anniversary of the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction kicked off a bear market.

Keep in mind that 4 years ago of a Fibonacci 1440 degrees in time ago, the market crashed into December 26^th

The low close was December 24^th. December 26^th opened lower followed by a massive reversal leaving a  large range outside up day (LROD) and Key Reversal mirroring the October 23, 2022 Key Reversal

My expectation is that this December 21^st (plus or minus) and the 720 degree anniversary should be pivotal in time and price.

The SPY levels on the Cardinal Cross that relate to the current position of the SPY are 391 (3910 cash) which is 180 degrees straight across and opposite December 21 and 371 (3710 cash) which is 90 degrees square Dec 21.

This ties to chart resistance in the 3900 region. This is Friday’s open gap and currently the free-falling 20 day moving average.

As flagged last week the 3700 region is significant.

Why?

It ties to the high of the low bar day, October 13.

In addition a drop to this 3700 region could satisfy a POSSIBLE inverse right shoulder.

If the open gap at 3818 is offset, the presumption is the SPX will be magnetized toward 3700 for the reasons pointed out above.

The weakness going into year end is exemplified by the NAZ.

Each successive wave 2 counter-trend rally (purple) has been weaker.

A daily NAZ below shows the index is already testing the high of the low bar day, October 13^th.

The trend channel looms large.

A drop to the 10,600 level seems a foregone conclusion.

This also will satisfy Phil D Gap.

Just below the bottom of the green trend channel are triple low closes in the 4^th quarter.

These may compel price lower.

They are well-defined support; however, the Bear is made to break support and breakage below these 3 red ellipses will trigger a Rule of 4 Sell “on close”.

In sum, we are at an important pivot in time and price which have the look of a short-term low; however, the structure is ominously impulsive to the downside.