By: Jeff Cooper

Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - December 12, 2023

Smoke Signals

“Synchronicity is an ever present reality for those who have eyes to see.”
-Carl Jung

On March 24, 2000, the NDX topped at 4816.

It bottomed at 795 on October 8, 2002.

Despite the debacle, the Square of 9 called the low. And so did we.

795 is 180 degrees straight across and opposite October 8th.

You can’t make this stuff up.

it took 16 years for the NDX to eclipse its 2000 top.

The SPX topped at basically the same level as NDX 4816 in 2000  …at 4818, on January 4, 2022.

Are the Market Gods trying to tell us something?

The 20 year cycle exerted its influence in October 2022  tracing out a bottom.

Likewise, we got a bottom in Oct 1962, August 1982,

The 20 year cycle is due to exert its influence to the downside with a low in 2028-2029.

This of course is 100 years from the lightning bolt that hit the market in 1929.

Since the bull market from 2009 to 2022 was 13 Fibonacci years, the presumption is the bear market

Will carry 3 years at a minimum until 2025 or 5 years until 2027.

There is a strong likelihood it could run 8 years until 2030 which ties to the 1929/1932 anniversaries.

2027 will be eventful. It is two twenty year cycles from 1987 and 20 years from the 2007 consequential top.

Notice on the above NDX that following the March 2000 top, there was a break followed by a Secondary High prior to the brunt of the bear.

Likewise currently we see a top in late 2021, a break, followed by a test of the all-time high in what should turn out to be a Secondary High.

The moral of the story is that while there was a price low in 2002, the NDX didn’t explode until 2016.

Likewise the DJIA saw a price low in 1932, but the bear wasn’t over until 1942 or 1949 by some measures.

So we’re talking about 10 or 17 years.

This compares to the 16 year period it took the NDX to clear its 2000 top.

On the same NDX chart below I added a trend line (black).

I paralleled a trend line from the 2018-2020 low off the 2000 top.

Notice the picture-perfect catch of the all-time high. Wow.

Drilling down to look at the Runaway Move into the March 2000 top shows a bottom on October 28th, 1999.

Sound familiar?

Our recent bottom was Oct 26 on the NDX and Oct 27th on the SPX.

Just when it seems that Gann Time/Price analysis doesn’t work, it shows that nothing is random.

Let’s look at some of the rallies since the all-time SPX high.

We’re in a 4th parabolic rally.

The first to were equal distant 600 point rallies.

The third rally was 800 SPX points.

A Measured Move 600 point rally currently ties to the 4700 region.

An 800 point Measured Move rally points to 4900.

Let’s see what Mr. Wheel has to say.

The low for the decline was 3492 or 349

349 squares October 13 for a picture perfect Time/Price square-out at the October 13, 2022 low.

349 aligns with/points to January 11th.

This is within four days of my January 15 potential turning point.

January 11 was the false breakout high in January 1973 fifty years ago.

That’s interesting because it was 50 years from the summer of 1932 low to the summer of 1982 low…The Macdaddy.

Now notice that 470 is straight across and opposite 349 and January 11th.

Is that the Secondary Top that we’ll get in January 2024?