Intraday Volatility For Month-End

Contradictions riddled Thursday’s tape.

The DJIA closed + 520 while the NAZ and NDX were lower.

SPX closed +17 but nearly all of that gain was a last half hour month-end program.

The index had been down minutes before that final surge into the close.

Essentially, our November 22 turning point date remains the internal high with Wednesday November 29^th looking like exhaustion, a buying climax.

A push by SPX to a new high over coming hours/days would put the index in the Monthly Minus One/Plus Two sell position:  the 3 Month Chart is down and there would then be 2 consecutive monthly higher highs.

This would be occurring in tandem with negative divergences in breadth-driven indicators.

Despite November’s surge, the bearish structure remains intact.

We have an Intermediate Wave 1 decline into October 2022 followed by a rally to an Intermediate Wave 2 top in July 2023.  The July/October 2023 drop can be counted as a wave 1 of Intermediate Wave 3 down with November carving out a wave 2 rally.

If this is correct Wave 3 of 3 to the downside will be easy to spot and will wipe out November.

A correction is due either way and what we should be watching to see is whether such decline installs an inverse right shoulder to the 4350 region.

Time-wise we are late November is 120 degree/days from the July peak just as the July high was 120 degrees/days from the March 2023 low.

My expectation is the weeklies should turn down next week.