By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - December 1, 2023
Intraday Volatility For Month-End
Contradictions riddled Thursday’s tape.
The DJIA closed + 520 while the NAZ and NDX were lower.
SPX closed +17 but nearly all of that gain was a last half hour month-end program.
The index had been down minutes before that final surge into the close.
Essentially, our November 22 turning point date remains the internal high with Wednesday November 29th looking like exhaustion, a buying climax.
A push by SPX to a new high over coming hours/days would put the index in the Monthly Minus One/Plus Two sell position: the 3 Month Chart is down and there would then be 2 consecutive monthly higher highs.
This would be occurring in tandem with negative divergences in breadth-driven indicators.
Despite November’s surge, the bearish structure remains intact.
We have an Intermediate Wave 1 decline into October 2022 followed by a rally to an Intermediate Wave 2 top in July 2023. The July/October 2023 drop can be counted as a wave 1 of Intermediate Wave 3 down with November carving out a wave 2 rally.
If this is correct Wave 3 of 3 to the downside will be easy to spot and will wipe out November.
A correction is due either way and what we should be watching to see is whether such decline installs an inverse right shoulder to the 4350 region.
Time-wise we are late November is 120 degree/days from the July peak just as the July high was 120 degrees/days from the March 2023 low.
My expectation is the weeklies should turn down next week.