July In November

Markets surged Wednesday morning following statements on Tuesday from Fed Governor Waller

Suggesting that the Fed may be through raising rates, and under certain conditions, could consider lowering rates as early as mid-2024.

But the gains didn’t hold.

Wednesday’s reversal mirrored the SPX’s July 27^th reversal which telegraphed a sharp 3 month downdraft.

See an hourly from July below:

See an hourly from current time-frame here:

Notably the our November 22 turning point day marks the high other than today’s high which failed to hold.

At the same time the most popular risk-off asset classes are being bid higher at what could be called an alarming rate.

TLT is setting new rally highs.

It will be important to observe it’s behavior as it challenges 90 degrees up from low which is 93---just a tad above Wednesday’s close.

Gold is set to close at a new monthly all-time closing high today.

On Wednesday, the VIX produced positive divergences suggesting that it, too, is beginning a turn to the topside.

In sum, downside follow-through below Tuesday’s low opens the door to the key 4497 level.

Breakage below that and the correction is underway---be  it a bullish pullback or the leg to 3500.

The nature and structure of the break below 4497 being one of the keys to that playbook.

The market will have a major message to deliver during the upcoming correction.

Part of that message has to do with War Cycles which we’ll do a report about on Monday.