By: Jeff Cooper

Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: November 16th, 2022

Black Swans

“I told you not to wander ‘round in the dark

I told you ‘bout the swans, that they live in the park…

Yes, I told you that the light goes up and down

Don’t you notice how the wheel goes ‘round?” Eric Clapton, George Harrison

FTX contained? Russian missiles into NATO-land.

Market reverses, but shrugs it off to close solidly green.

A $trillion dollar crypto debacle bailout rally?

A flailing Mother Russia gives birth to a war swan?

Bankman and Putin are no match for FOMO.

Sometimes the handwriting is on the wall in disappearing ink.

For example, the Lehman handwriting was on the wall a week before the Lehman Crash.

Ditto Bear Stearns.

Famous last words: “Bear Stearns is fine.”

As offered in October the SPX had two dates with destiny:

One at 3990 on August 15.

One at 4100 on August 15th.

Which will hold sway? Will we get one more pump before the dump?

The Wheel goes up and down and VECTORS..VIBRATES off 399 (3990) and Nov 15.

A Ghost Line intersection points to an intersection at 4100 yesterday.

But “yesterday don’t matter if it’s gone.”

Time is more important than price.

Either way, it was 100 points up and 700  or 1000 down.

700 down gives 3300 region, the pre-Covid Crash high.

After all prior resistance becomes new support. Right?

1000 points down gives 3000-- the July and September 2019 highs…prior to the run-up to the Feb 2020 pre-crash peak.

The first leg down in the Bear was 700 points to 4116 on Feb 24.

The second leg down from the late March high to the June low was a thousand points.

The 3rd leg down of the Bear into mid-October was also approximately  700 points on a closing basis.

4335 high on August 16th down to the mid-October closing low of 3577.

The aforesaid possible Swans could provide the narrative for the Bear’s romp in the Wave 3 of 3 romp in the park.

In sum, as offered this time last year war cycles are on deck.

The Poland attack seems similar to the Lusitania sinking that began WW 2.

“They”  start every war using excuses like the Germans sank the Lusitania because the US was secretly using passenger ships to move weapons to Britain.

The collaboration of NATO means that all countries must now act…ultimately.

Hold tight, Archduke Franz Ferdinand.