By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - November 8, 2023
Friday October 27th was a perfect 90 days/degrees from the July 27th high.
It also produced a buy signal: the SPX was down while the NYMO (NYSE McClellan was up).
I gave the signals short-shrift thinking a few days' nominal bounce was the likelihood.
However, we stated that clearing 4260 opened the door 100 points higher.
Last week, we suggested an A B C pattern would play out.
The above is a chart from Monday (as I was out of the office Tuesday).
My expectation is that the Monthly Swing Chart will turn up---the only question is whether it will do so on this upthrust or we get a B wave pullback and then a C wave rally that sees trade over the October high in November satisfying a C wave.
I think we get the pullback, the B wave starting soon.
This week has been the polar opposite of last week's buy signal.
We have 2 NYMO sell signals.
We have two higher closes on the SPX simultaneous with two drops in the NYMO.
In other words we have two higher closes with negative market breadth.
Monday, November 6th the SPX closed up by 7.64 points while net advances/declines were -1277, a massive negative divergence. NYMOC fell -32.66 as a result.
Tuesday November 7, saw another unusual negative divergence as SPX closed up by 12.40, while net advances/declines were -457. NYMO fell -14.23
These NYMO sell signals are unusual and bearish when they appear.
Far more unique and more bearish are two such signals in a row which we have currently.
I cannot recall ever seeing 2 consecutive NYMO sell signals.
But if I combed thru the last 100 years I’d probably find several.
My expectation is these unusual, negative divergences are setting up a sharp decline in the hours/days ahead.
The SPY struck the 437 region on Tuesday.
This is interesting because it is 180 degrees straight across and opposite November 21/22.
We have been pointing to this time zone for two reasons:
1) November 21 was the crash low in 2008. We are 15 years from 2008 which is 90 degrees or ¼ of the Gann Master 60 Year Cycle.
2) November 22 is the 60 year anniversary of JFK’s assassination.
The market got hit for 1 to 2 days at the time but it was an event that changed and scared the country forever.
Since 437 squares that potentially important pivot, we may have struck a high on the SEVENTH day up from low on Tuesday.