By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - November 1, 2023
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She Had Fun Fun Fun Til Her Daddy Took The T-Bond Away
"And she had fun fun fun..."
-The Beach Boys
“That which is not yet, but ought to be, is more real than that which merely is.”
A monthly TLT shows the picture perfect tops line with a blow off above The Line in 2020.
Breakage below the March 2020 monthly blow off bar put the nail in the bond coffin.
Then came the big backtest of the green Tops Line from which the normal expectation would be a rollover, a Bear Market.
We got the worst two year bond bear in history signaled by breakage below the subsequent breakage of the March 2020 low at the red horizontal line.
A Rembrandt, a picture perfect pattern of a blow-off, a reversal below the breakout point, a backtest and a rollover.
However, now TLT shows 3 big drives to a possible interim low.
What that means is a cyclical low for a rally phase---the presumption is a new bull bond is not on the table; rather, a rally phase. Possibly quite strong on a flight to “safety” and a position squeeze of a massive short position.
The minimum projection is 93 and probably 103.
Why from here?
TLT struck a low and carved our a Key Reversal Day from the 83 region on October 23, 2023.
My Square of 9 Wheel Of Time & Price below shows that 83 and October 23 are a Time/Price square-out.
A monthly SPX shows a similar blowoff above a Tops Line, a break back below The Line and a bearish backtest in July 2023.
Following our forecast in September 2021 that the market would get hit hard in January 2022 followed by a nasty Bear Market, we a major cyclical Secondary Peak for July 2023.
One factor being that 2023 is 94 years from a major top in 1929.
On the Square of 9 the number 94 aligns with/vibrates off July.
As well July 2023 was 540 degrees/days from the January 2022 SPX all-time high
540 degrees is a true square-out in time. It is a cube, 6 sides of 90 degrees in a true square, a cube.
In researching my DVD course, Unlocking the Profits Of the New Swing Chart Method which tracks every major SPX swing from 1941, I discovered how many swings of 540 degrees in price and time defined major turning points.
In sum, the takeaway is the SPX has catchup to do with the bond market.
Cycles underscore that the SPX should drop below the March 2020 crash low and likely the March 2009 low in this Bear Market.
No one knows whether this Intermediate Wave 3 decline will be an escalator or an elevator, but
This November warns a potential “event” and possible Air Pocketism.
We have highlighted some of the factors pointing to November as time of reckoning and will put all the pieces together in tomorrow’s Hit and Run Report.