By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - October 12, 2023
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What’s Next For Gold and the SPX?
Gold started the current rally on October 6th and may trade above 2,000 or advance 11% by October 11th.
In the two previous similar cycles gold rallied 11% within 11 days.
Remember my recent chart in GLD that showed the potential for an upside cascade on trade above 178-179 that opens the door to the 191 high.
Monday’s report showed the 191 region triggers a massive 3 year Rule Of 4 Breakout.
GLD shows an Island Bottom and is flirting with its declining 20 day moving average.
Just overhead are two downside gaps at the 176 and 177 level.
We now have two upside gaps that look like a mirror image foldback of the two downside gaps.
A Jump The Creek buy signal will be triggered on sustained trade above 176,
A declining Tops Line from the early May high ties to 177/178 above which triggers a 5 month Angular Rule Of 4 Breakout.
GLD broke down from a Descending Wedge on the weeklies.
It is challenging the bottom of that wedge.
Recapturing 174 and holding suggests a Trap Door buy setup has been sprung.
Essentially the entire decline from May 2023 can be seen as the Handle of a 18 month (540 degree cube).
If a Gargantuan Gold move is on deck we have no lack of catalysts to light the fuse:
Geopolitical, fiscal and financial/market.
Underscoring the notion that something “is out there” is the Square Of 9 vibration below.
We are 234 years from George Washington’s inauguration.
On The Wheel, 234 aligns with 1789 (using the number as a year).
From the recent 168 low 90 degrees up is 182.
Another decrement of 90 degrees higher is 196.
Consequently a sustained drive over 182 opens the door to 196 which is a major breakout over the 191 resistance.
Interestingly, 182 and 196 square November 11.
This is when the Mars/Uranus crash cycle window opens.
As for the market, it seems intent on mirroring the pattern from 50 years ago after the Yom Kippur 6 Days War when it rallied after the news.
Yesterday’s report outlined the path higher following a pullback to test 4346 and the 20 day moving average. The SPX pulled back to 4345.34 before exploding to 4378.50.
Reversals off “square-outs” don’t always respond that quickly. However, the fact that the square at 4346 tied precisely to the 20 day ma was a Confluence that flipped the green switch.
Tuesday the SPX rallied to 4385.46 before tailing off to close well below the mid-point of the session.
A rally today above Wednesday’s high that remains below Tuesday’s high sets up the possibility
of a Hidden Dragon sell signal…a up inside pattern.
Interestingly last Friday’s explosive reversal was a Crouching Tiger buy setup, a down inside setup.
If the SPX clears Tuesday’s high there is a strong likelihood that it will push thru Phil D Gap from September 21st on its way to the 50 day line.
Earlier this week, Hit and Run mapped this path indicating a potential rally above the 50 day line
Perpetuating a Bull Trap.
In sum, Hit and Run continues to capitalize on both sides of the tape.
Highlights are recent longs in GLD, TLT, GDXU, FNV, ZS and OKTA and shorts in TEAM, CVNA, WOLF and CVNA to mention a few.
Be that as it may, the next sell signal should be a haymaker for us.