By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: October 7th, 2022
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Make Or Break Point
Below is a monthly DJIA from the 2009 low with a 50-month moving average (blue)
Once the DJIA recaptured it in 2010, it pulled back to test it in 2011 and never looked back.
The 50-month moving average acted as support again in February 2016 followed by a Rule of 4 Breakout that led to a parabolic move into the January 18th top.
A reversion to the mean of volatility followed carving out a Megaphone Top formation that culminated with a plumb line drop in 2020 resulting in a crash when the 50-month ma was broken.
Where are we now?
In June the DJIA tested the Feb 2020 pre-Covid Crash high-- the black horizontal line.
Prior resistance became new support and the DJIA rallied into mid-August, resulting in a Secondary high.
In the seasonally ugly month of September, the DJIA undercut the black horizontal support and the 50-month moving average.
This month, both the 50-month and the black horizontal support line were reclaimed.
So the question is whether reclaiming The Line and the 50-month ma defines an important low or whether it is a knee-jerk reaction.
We should know within the next 3 weeks.
Breakage back below the 50-month moving average should see The Slide Setup play out.
What level could a slide target?
Well, connecting the 2010 and 2011 and 2016 lows (green trend line) points to 23000 in the current time frame.
Note that the March 2020 Selling Climax violated the green rising trend line but the DJIA never closed below it.