By: Jeff Cooper

Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - September 18, 2023

2024 Year Of Destiny

In 1912, we had a Presidential election that brought Woodrow Wilson to power.

He brought in the Income Tax and the Federal Reserve.

It was a major turning point in determining the future of the United States.

From 1912 to the 2024 election is 112 years.

112 years prior to the 1912 election was the 1800 presidential election between Jefferson and Adams.

It was a major clash and the birth of the Democratic-Republican Party against the Federalists.

The party of Jefferson then split into the Democrats versus Republicans.

We are due to get major political confrontation and chaos in 2024 on this 112 year cycle.

Interestingly, on my Square of 9 Wheel of Time and Price, 112 squares October 29th.

October 29th was the Shock Wave in 1929.

So we have yet another vibration with 1929 in league with the synchronicity we showed last week.

The implication is we have a problem.

The analogue below underscores this cycle.

The all-time SPY high in January 2022 was 480.

90 degrees down is 459.

There is a strong likelihood that the 459 July 2023 high marked the Secondary High.

While the Secondary High in 1930  was roughly 6 months (180 degrees)  after the September 1929 debacle, if this is a larger degree Super Cycle, arguably that accounts for a Secondary high in July 2023 that is a longer 18  months (540 degrees) from the January 2022 peak.

50 years or a Jubilee Cycle from the October/December Bear Market low in 1974 points to late 2024.
Notably this same cycle marked the major low and start of the Great Bull Market that started in August 1982: It was 50 years from the Bear Market low on July 8th, 1932.

It must be said that while July 1932 marked a price low, a secular bear market remained in force until 1942 or 1949 depending on how you count it.

Likewise while late 1974 marked a price low, the market remained in a wide and loose sideways phase until “time was up” and the 50 year cycle hit in 1982.

So while we may see a price low of some degree in 2024, there is a strong  likelihood that the market could remain range-bound and bearish into 2032.

That is the 50 year anniversary of the 1982 low and the 100 year anniversary of the 1932 low.

There is a major turning point due in April/May 2024 which is 180 days degrees from the November 2024 election so that gives a lot of time chaos…similar to the free fall from May 2008 into November 2008 election.

We will highlight the significance of the April/May period for America in a Hit and Run report this week.

In Friday’s report we showed the above chart from 1987. We highlighted that September 15th  2023 opened the Gann Panic Zone on the SPX.

This is because it is 49 calendar days or 7 squared days from the July 27th high.

The market began to free fall from the 49th day from high in 1987 and in 1929.

Friday the SPX shed 55 points. It was the worst drop since May.

Will Monday be a Black Monday?

We had a Black Monday on March 9th, 2020 in the middle of the Covid Crash when the DJIA fell by 7.79%.

We had a Black Monday on August 24th, 2015 when the SPX fell 104 points intraday.

This followed strong declines on the prior Thursday’s and Friday’s---mirroring the free fall in  1987.

There is a setup for a Black Monday today the market was under intense pressure on Friday.

Friday broke an hourly 3 point trend line from September 7th thereby triggering a Rule of 4 Sell signal

Critical support is the 4430 region on the Square of 9 Wheel which also ties to a bottoms line from the August 18th low.

Breakage below 4430 opens the door to the 4200 region..

A weekly bottoms like from the March 2023 low was struck in mid-August perpetuating a one week turn up in the Daily Swing Chart.

The SPX is weak; it could not satisfy 2 consecutive higher weekly highs.

A bottoms line from the October 2022 low ties to 4200.

The low 4200 region ties to the 50 week moving average and a the breakout point in June (the horizontal green line).

360 degrees down from the July 4607 high is 4338. Notice that mid-August low where the 3 Week Chart turned down.

Consequently, a second break of this 4430 region opens the door to 540 degrees down which is 4208,

The synergistic relationships between these squares, the rising trend lines and the moving averages

Underscores the freefall setup on the table.

Whether or not it plays out immediately, the stage is set for chaos in 2024.