Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: July 29th, 2022
By: Jeff Cooper
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Are All On Board To Panic Buy Where The Panic Sell Occurred?
“A bull market will forgive a multitude of trading sins while a bear market will punish every mistake.” Anon
The market has confirmed our analysis that June was a multi-month bottom when several indices spiked to 6 and 7-month lows.
How do I know that mid-June was important?
In addition to major Gann Master Time Factor cycles, 3636 (SPX low) is square in mid-June.
You can’t make this stuff up.
The June Time/Price square-out followed a SEVEN-day Selling Panic where the SPX plunged 527 points from 4164.
That square-out SEVEN months from the November primary high (when the leading NDX struck high) signaled stock indices were/are expected to score their largest rally of 2022.
Next week will be SEVEN weeks from the June low and should mark a cycle progression pivot high.
This should be followed by a pullback prior to another rally high. Should be.
The initial rally off our forecasted low last Tuesday should last into early next week for two reasons.
1) the Monthly Swing Charts on the indices could turn up as early as August 1st on trade above whatever their respective July high is.
2) QQQ is attacking our 310 projection. And, as the square of 9 below shows 310 is square July 27th. It’s always + or – so caution is warranted for the short-term as long as we’re under the 310 region.
3) the SPY June low for the year was 362. On the Square of 9, 362 is square August 3rd.
In sum, since July 13/14 stocks were projected to surge to 4050-4100.
Since then they have rallied with the SPX hitting 4079.
Stocks have virtually fulfilled their short-term potential. The structure of the SPX is very full short-term with 3 drives to a potential high region.
These are the drives that defined highs on 6/28, 7/22, and the current time period.
This 3rd swing-up shows breakage above a trend channel which may ignite FOMO for the Johnny Come Lately bulls.
Once the monthlies turn up which is my expectation, the presumption is a pullback.
Knifing back below the aforesaid trend channel should inspire profit taking.
An initial peak on a turn-up of the monthlies projects a future secondary low into the August 9-11 window.
Risk remains down to the July 26 lows.
Gold and silver are bouncing after testing and holding major support.
My expectation is that gold and silver could fulfill cycle convergence into late August/September for another peak in 2022.
90 degrees up from GDXJ’s recent 29 low is 35, which ties to the 50-day moving average.
I think Thursday’s Keyser Soze Breakaway Gap creates a tailwind to 35.
We’ll watch its behavior closely.