By: Jeff Cooper

Hit and Run Trading Morning Report - July 21, 2023

Market Stumbles, Analog Lives

So far The Analogue from the January 26, 2018 top which was followed by Volmageddon is on track:

Yesterday the SPX and QQQ gapped down potentially mirroring the gap down on 1/30/18.

There are two conspicuous differences:

Yesterday’s break was not off an all-time high like 2018. We are working on a potential lower high. If we get an impulsive leg lower here, it is either a vicious C Wave or a dramatic 3rd Wave decline.

The other difference is that the DJIA was up for the 8th consecutive day despite the selling in the NAZ and the SPX.

To recap, the SPX plunged 15% in 10 trading days from the January 26th, 2018 highs.

A 15% crash today equates to a decline that virtually tests the key March 2023 low at 3808.

The low prior to the recent runaway move was May 4th, 2023.

The low prior to the accelerated momentum into the  January 2018 top was November 15th.

They both share an approximately 70 calendar day stampede.

Seven being the number of panic and completion.

Like all parabolic runs, the drop off the January 2918 top saw the SPX wipe out the entire preceding vertical phase.

As flagged yesterday, a similar wipeout today translates to a drop to 4190, the breakout pivot.

The largest decline on Thursday was from the NAZ, down nearly 300 points, as all of the top 7 Momentum Leaders were down between 1% and more than 10% for the day. Four of those seven were down more than 4* each.

While the action mirrors late January 2018, we must take this day by day rather than operate on the assumption that the markets will cascade as they did in early February 2018.

That said August is opposite February on the calendar and July 2023 marks a 66 month cycle from January 2018.

The market is still vibrating off the SPX 666 Bear Market low of 3/6/09.

Let’s take a look.

666 weeks happens to be 4666 days..

Underscoring the significance is that 4666 days ties to SEVEN years.

7 being the number of time.

Analyzing a cycle requires a significant starting point where one can calculate forwards and backwards.

Let’s use the July 8th, 1932 low….the major low following the debacle following the 1929 high.

I’m not going to walk thru each 4666 day cycle at this time except to say that the first spin-out of the cycle is April 17th, 1945.
This ties closely to D-Day, the end of WW2, the Atomic Bomb and President Roosevelt’s death.

Remarkably, the 6th cycle out from July 8th, 1932 was March 2nd, 2009. Just days from the Great Recession low.

Get this…the 7th cycle out is December 10th, 2021. This is the center of the NAZ November 2021 peak and the SPX early January ATH.

Long time readers are familiar with my idea that 6 revolutions of time or price are important as they represent a true square, a 6 sided cube.

So six 666 week cycles after the Great Depression low in 1932, we had the Great Recession low in March 2009.

Two things:

December 2021 represents the 7th cycle of 666 weeks. 7 is panic, culmination.
the market crashed 7 squared days after the August 1987 high just like it crashed 7 squared days after the September 1929 high.

The market panicked after the 7th cycle of 666 weeks starting in 2022.

Is it possible that late 2021 marked a Super Cycle Top from the 1932 low?

This might explain what seems to be a countertrend rally from the October 13, 2022 lows.

Of course 666 is a Biblical reference and many believe the Bible to be a book of cycles…amongst other things.

The SPX dropped to a low of 3491 on October 13, 2022.

The decline was 1327 points.

This is almost 666 X 2.

The market is clearly trying to tell us something.

The duration of the decline was 9 months and 9 days (Tesla numbers 3,6,9).

The decline was a Biblical 40 weeks, as in the Biblical 40 days and 40 nights.

This week is 40 weeks off the October 13th, 2022 low, as flagged yesterday in this space.

Has the market balanced out this week?

So 40 and 40…as in 40 weeks and 40 nights?.

40 squared is 1600 which ties to the Golden Ratio of 1.618 or Phi X 100 (10 squared).

As Gann wrote the human body symbolizes God’s design.

We have 10 fingers and 10 toes: 10 squared, 100.

The 360 degree ORB, the head, has 7 orifices: 2 eyes, 2 ears, 2 nostrils and the 7th the mouth where everything goes down.

7, the number of time, panic.

That’s how we started out with this discussion on cycles.

Does this mean Intermediate Wave 2 or a B Wave has topped?

All we can say is when a time period repeats it pays dividends to pay attention.

What I will say is that if the market declines 666 points it will take us toward the region of the March 2022 low.

If we should drop 1332 points it translates to 3200.

If Mr. Market’s agenda is for a new all-time high 666 points above the 4818 peak ties to 5500, an important Fibonacci number, 55.

Interestingly, a 2000 SPX point drop (666 X 3) equates roughly to a test of the March 2020 weekly low bar close of 2541.
In other words the low week of the crash closed at 2541.

If a bull market should erupt following a test of those lows at some point, perhaps a 100% plus advance north of 5000 can evolve---

SEVEN HUNDRED SPX points above the 4818 all-time high.

Of course that assumes we haven’t already seen a Super Cycle High.

In the meantime, let’s mark November 1st, 2023 on our calendars…666 days from January 2022 record high.

I’m sure you have already noted that November 1st is 90 days/degrees from August 1st.

Remember my discussion of the 33 year cycle pre-crash high in JULY 1990?

The market got hit hard starting on August 2nd, 1990 when Iraq invaded Kuwait.

33 years. 6.

33 years, 396 months. Tesla…3, 6, 9.

In summation, if we get a 5 wave decline, it should be a conspicuously bearish signal,.

The Q’s topped near 388.

90 degrees down is 368 which represents a test/undercut of its 20 day moving average.

We got similar tests on 6/25 and 7/10.

Currently there is an open gap that ties to the 20 day ma in the 369 region. It would not be surpsing to see a rally attempt come from a drop to 368 ish carving out a short term 3 point trend line.

If this scenario plays out, subsequent breakage of this 3 point trend line, the 20 day moving average and the open gap from July 12th that triggered what may be a last ditch Buying Climax. We will get very bearish and increase our short exposure.