By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: July 3, 2023
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There is currently a preponderance of technical analysis evidence as well as fundamental economic evidence suggesting Intermediate Wave 2’s countertrend rally high is at hand.
That means Intermediate Wave 3 down should begin soon, taking prices sharply lower.
It will be stronger than Intermediate Wave 1 down from early January 2022 to October 2022.
Anecdotally, it is hard to find a retail investor that has this prospect on their radar.
That in and of itself warrants caution.
Another factor indicating stocks are about to culminate or have concluded the rally from October 2022 are a cluster of SEVEN Fibonacci time relationships:
June 27th is 2023 is a Fibonacci 21 trading days from the May 25th, 2023 low.
June 20th is a Fibonacci 34 trading days from the May 1st, 2023 top.
June 22nd is a Fibonacci 89 trading days from the February 13th, 2023 top.
June 30th is a Fibonacci 144 trading days from the November 30th, 2022 top.
June 21st is a Fibonacci 233 trading days from the July 14th, 2022 low.
June 26th is a Fibonacci 610 trading days from the January 20th, 2021 top.
June 16th is a Fibonacci 987 trading days from the July 16th, 2019 top.
Clusters of Fibonacci turn dates have been impressive in the past.
This series ties to the July 4th turning point week we’ve highlighted throughout June.
Going into this time period, the SPX gapped up to close at a new high for the move off the October 2022 low.
We either have an exhaustion gap at a double top or a Breakaway Gap.
A reversal below the June 16th high sets up a Soup Nazi sell signal.
If that plays out, downside follow-through will be key.
We haven’t taken a look at the DJIA or a big picture IWM in some time.
It shows a Tombstone Top.
IWM shows this year's double top in the 196 region.
The SPX hit the top of its long term channel in mid-June.