By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: June 28, 2023
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Gold Run Into August/September Strong Seasonality?
A daily GLD shows an Ending Diagonal.
The blue declining tops line from the May high intersects a smaller blue tops line over the coming days at the 180 strike region.
The blue bottoms line was hit on Tuesday.
Notice the breakage on a gap below the purple horizontal line at 180.
Our buy pivot is trade above 180.
Does that assure a trend change?
No. Follow-through is key.
It is a setup, but a good setup.
Especially given the big picture triple tops overhead.
Why do I say that?
Because I don’t recall seeing many quadruple tops in my career.
At the same time notice the big red trend channel.
I connected the tops starting in January.
Then I paralleled a line off the early March low.
90 days/degrees after the March low, my expectation is that GLD would turn up.
It tried but petered out.
The early June lows are also 180.
So we have several pivots in the 180 region.
As well, notice that the bottom rail of the big red channel comes in at around 181.50.
Consequently, the presumption is that clearing 180 and then 181.50 should perpetuate some serious momentum.
The May high is 191.36.
90 degrees down is 177.50 which was struck on Tuesday.
The last major swing low was the early November low at 150.50.
150.50 squares Tuesday/today.
So we have multiple Time and Price setups in GLD.
We are looking in the whites of gold’s eyes and waiting to see if it blinks.
One of the best performers amongst the gold miners this year was AU which ran from 12 in September to 30 in early May.
Tuesday on the twitter feed I posted the Time/Price setup in AU.
Checking the above daily it looks like Tuesday’s large range decliner may mirror the May 4th Buying Climax.
As above, so below.
If AU leaves bullish Train Tracks today, it will be the first sign of selling exhaustion.
Above the Ending Diagonal in the above chart at 23.50 ish and reclaiming the open gap at 24. triggering a Jump The Creek buy.
Opens the door to a new uptrend.
From my perch it looks like AU carved out a Wave 1 rally from November into January followed by a Wave 2 pullback into early March.
From there AU exploded in a powerful Wave 3 advance.
That indicates the current pullback is a corrective Wave 4 with a Wave 5 of some degree on deck that will score new highs above 31.
Pulling back the lens to check the weeklies shows some compelling synchronicity.
AU has pulled back to a trend line connecting September low and the February low.
I paralleled a line off the January high.
The implication is that the next advance should extend to the 34/36 region.
36 is the next 90 degree decrement above the 30 peak.
36 is square mid-August so if momentum shows up there is a setup for AU to rocket into gold’s favorable August seasonality.