By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: June 15, 2023
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Key Point For Markets
The SPX and QQQ printed new intraday and closing highs for the year on Wednesday.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
It’s how we got there
Let’s take a look at a 10 min chart for Wednesday for both the QQQ and SPX.
The Q’s and the SPX dropped sharply after the Fed’s Hawkish Pause.
The question is whether it turns into a hawkish Paws.
The Q’s broke a micro rising trendline (blue) and rebounded to backtest the break.
In so doing they carved out a micro Megaphone Top pattern.
Breakage now below the red rising trend line opens the door lower.
The SPX broke a rising short-term trend line before rebound to install a possible right shoulder of a micro Head & Shoulders top.
The QQQ exceeded the important 358 square-out region; however, this 366/367 level vibrates off October 13th, the 2022 low for the decline.
There is always a relationship between time and price at important turning points; it’s just that the pieces of the puzzle don’t always come together until it’s right in our face.
As well, this time-frame is 360 degrees/days from the orthodox June 2022 low.
I say June is the orthodox low because October proved to be an undercut/secondary low.
Additionally, this week is 90 days/degrees from the important March 2023 low.
TSLA may be the canary in the parabola mine.
Prior to Wednesday’s open TSLA was trading at 266. It opened much lower at 260.17.
261 is 2 revs of 360 degrees (720 degrees) up from the April 27, 2023 low at 152.
Notably, 266 and 152 are 90 degrees square June 13/14.
So we have what looks like a meaningful Time/Price square-out on the Bull’s mascot.
90 degrees down from 266 is 250.
TSLA skidded down to 250.50 intraday before rebounding to close at 256.
It’s trading off at 254.50 after hours as I write this Wednesday night.
Breakage below 250 opens the door to 234 and Phil D Gap from June 9th.
In summation, yesterday’s low really is a key point.
The leading indexes the SPX and QQQ broke and rebounded to test their highs.
Trade below yesterdays low indicates a “test failure” at least in the short run and
Big market moves start with small pivots.
An hourly SPY shows yesterday’s low tested a 3 point rising trend line from the last swing low on May 24th.
Below yesterday’s low triggers an hourly Rule of 4 sell.
From the January 4th, 2022 all-time SPY high to June 14th, 2023 is 526 days.
On my Square of 9 Wheel, 526 aligns with/vibrates off 439, yesterday’s high.
So we have a square-out with the duration of the time since the high and the highest price since the October low.
At the end of May/early June the SPY broke out above a double top at 418.
Interestingly, a 90 degree run up from 418/419 is 439, yesterday’s high.
Is it possible a quick backtest of the 419 region is on the table?
Well a daily SPY shows a rising trend line from the March low ties to 419 over the next week----in other words, into the June 21st
That’s the bull case. If the SPX slips back below the breakout point and 418/419 SPY and our key 4187 SPX level after the June 21st Summer Solstice, July could see
At yesterday’s recovery high the SPX was the most extended from its 50 day moving average as it was at last August’s high.
The ensuing downdraft tested/undercut the 50 day moving average and tried to recapture it.
When it failed to hold the recapture attempt a waterfall decline played out into October.
The unwind of the stretch above the 50 day line was 834 points in 2 months.
Never say never in the markets.