Timing Is Everything

“Time is more important than price.”
-WD Gann

Earlier this week we walked through the Puetz Crash Window and its criteria.

Below is a chart showing the setup 4 previous times since 1929.

If we’re going to get a serious downdraft, the time window I am looking at is the week of May 17^th and the first week of June.

We’ve gone over the week of May 17^th:

• The anniversary of the NYSE
• Alignment with the year 1929 on the Square of 9 Wheel,
• Its squaring out with the 1327 point SPX range since the SPX January 2022 ATH (1327 is square May 17^th),
• Its alignment with 481, the SPX ATH price (4818).

As to the first week of June, we have a Bradley Turn Date then.

June 6 aligns with 666, the price low of the Bear Market in 2009.

Speaking of timing being everything…remember that the all-time 4818 SPX high points to May 1^st, 2023.

Rounded down 4818 is 482.

482 days from the January 4^th all-time high is May 1^st, 2023.

The SPX spiked into May 1^st and reversed sharply.

Is it carving out a right should under the cover of FOMO under the surface?

ZTS
SWAV
CRM
META
DUOL

...to mention a few

It’s more than interesting to those of us who use the magic of the Square of 9 Wheel, that Congress has raised the debt ceiling 78 times.

The number 78 is 180 degrees straight across and opposite June 6^th.

Is that “D Day”?

In addition, the SPX struck an important low in December 2022.

90 days/degrees later it struck an important low in March.

Another 90 days/degrees later is June.

My expectation is we are getting a low to low to high cycle.

When we look back at the market at the end of the year I think it will look like a first half rally and a second half decline.

Connecting the December 2022 low and the March 2023 low gives us a Ghost Line at 3850.

I think breakage below 4040 opens the door to 3850.

Whether that drop is an elevator or an escalator, I don’t know, but I think there is a strong likelihood of it playing out.

The SPX has been carving out a Rising Wedge, a bearish pattern, since it’s October 2022 low which underpins the idea of a strong downdraft on deck.

I think this year’s rally has been a Wave 2 corrective rally following 2022’s brutal Wave 1 decline.

What better way do disabuse the vast majority of market participants that the coast is clear than a blow-off in select names?

FOMO is doing an encore, but it will take a “bow”:

My expectation is the SPX will test/undercut its 3491 low in October 2022 before the year is over.