By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: April 27, 2023
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To recap, based on the GLD chart, Hit and Run was expecting a major low in the precious metals in late September/early November.
A daily GLD below shows the W V Bottom, a Trap Door low.
A Trap Door occurs when a base is undercut but the item quickly Jackknifes back in the other direction.
In this case, GLD left a Bear Trap.
The very next day off the low, GLD gapped up with authority setting the stage for the runaway move into early February.
We were expecting a consolidation/pullback from an early February high as that was 90 days/degrees from the early November low. Textbook Gann geometry.
The pullback satisfied a turn down in the 3 Week Chart with GLD bottoming on week 4 at the 20 week moving average for a Weekly Holy Grai buy setup -- a pullback to the rising 20 week ma.
While GLD turned up on the week of Feb 27, it pulled back the rubber band one last time the following week to flush out the weak hands.
That week, the week of March 6, GLD left a large range outside up week telegraphing a powerful advance.
The end of April/early May is 180 degrees/days from the late October/early November low.
GLD has been consolidating for 3 weeks.
It may have more work to do before a new upleg begins. But an hourly from April shows a Rule of 4 Breakout with a Backtest of the Breakout point (B&B).
Note what proved to be an Exhaustion Gap on April 13th which we were on the lookout for based on a square-out in GDXJ at 44 in that time frame.
Now let’s pull back the lens to look at a monthly GLD from August 2020 all-time high at 194.44.
194.44 “vibrates” off mid-May as shown in the Square of 9 below.
Since this is a monthly chart, the normal expectation is that a turning point could occur any in May… but most likely prior to mid-May.
This turning point could be a high, a low (a pullback low in this case) or a point of acceleration.
The idea of a point of acceleration is interesting as the above monthly shows a looming Rule of 4 Breakout on deck.
Momentum typically follows moves over triple tops (or below triple bottoms).
Another weekly GLD shows a breakout may have already occurred using a crayon rather than a pencil.
If so, the implication is that further pullback would find support at the 181 region.
Be that as it may, whether GLD has more work to do as to walking off the recent advance or whether a new upleg starts quite soon, the message of the structgure is that we have a large Wave 1 and Wave 2 followed by a smaller Wave 1 and Wave 2 within the context of a 3rd wave up.
The bottom line is the next move up will find us in the heart of a powerful 3rd of a 3rd wave, the golden eye of a hurricane.