The First Mouse Gets The Squeeze, The Second Mouse Gets The Cheese

I tweeted the above a half hour into Tuesday’s session. The SPX closed down 65 points at 4071.53.

Yesterday I noted that the market felt “heavy” and reminded me of the drift prior to 9/11 and how the end of this week vibrates off 9/11.

9/11 was 259 months ago and 259 “points to” April 27^th.

This time period bisects the April 20 and May 5^th eclipses so the potential is for the Law Of Vibration to be Exalted.

In other words, as offered on the Hit and Run Private Twitter Feed, breakage below 4070 opens the door to the 4030 region. Interestingly, 403 (4030) points to April 27^th on my Square of 9 Time/Price Calculator.

As well, 4030 ties to the 50 day moving average.

I think there is a stronger than average likelihood that breakage below the 50 day ma will perpetuate a drop to the low 3900’s.

Why? 360 degrees down from the 4169 April swing high is 3913.

180 degrees down is 4036 and the aforementioned 50 day moving average.

Consequently, if the 50 day falters and 180 degrees down fails to act as support,  the odds are that 3913 could be seen quickly.

These concepts of “degrees” may sound foreign, but over my 40 year career I have fully satisfied myself that the mind of the market is math as W D Gann wrote.

The market is not random. It is not happenstance.

Underpinning this analysis is that a rising trend line from the March low was snapped with authority yesterday.

At the same time pulling the lens back shows that a CLOSE ONLY trend line from the October 2022 so-far low for the bear was snapped as well.

The SPX broke this CLOSE ONLY trend line (RED) in March but then reclaimed it on March 30^th.

Tuesday’s breakage back below  this important trend line (RED) suggests bears were squeezed in April but that the second mouse will get the cheese for the bears.

Indeed, breakage below the 3900 region opens the door for panic and a waterfall decline.

Indeed, a monthly SPX suggests that the entire past 6 months' price action may be a Bear Flag.

It may be that this Bear Flag/Rising Wedge is Intermediate Wave 1 following Intermediate Wave 2 decline from January to October 2022.

Often times accelerated momentum follows Bear Flags or Rising Wedges.  This would be consistent with the idea that a dramatic Intermediate Wave 3 drop is on deck.

Let’s take a look at The Truth Teller, IWM.

Last June-October IWM double bottomed at 162/163, testing the pre-Covid Crash high in January 2020 in a

“prior resistance becomes new support” workout.

However, in February 2023, IWM carved out monthly Minus One/Plus Two sell pattern which precipitated a plunge in March.

The setup threatens a break of the June/October 2022 lows which by definition means breakage thru the 2020 high.

This is consistent with the idea that a vicious third wave down is in progress and that we are on the cusp of downside acceleration.

Why?

This year’s high is 199 which as the Square of 9 below shows “points to”/vibrates off May 1^st.

At the same time, a trend line connecting the June/October lows ties to 170.

170 is 180 degrees down and opposition from the 199 high with both vibrating off this time period.

In summation, if the 180 region breaks it opens the door to the next decrement of 90 degrees down which is 167.

Below 167 opens the door to 145 and Phil D Gap from the March Covid Gap.

As with the SPX, IWM tested its January 2020 highs last year, but breakage below counsels that the second mouse will get the cheese.

Perhaps Mr. Market in his omniscience understands that it will take a market crash to solve the debt dispute in Congress.