By: Jeff Cooper
Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: April 5, 2023
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Stunning Silver Breakout On Heels Of Gold Momentum
“The collapse of U.S. influence over Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom’s new alliances with China and Iran are painful emblems of the abject failure of the Neocon strategy of maintaining U.S. global hegemony with aggressive projections of military power. China has displaced the American Empire by deftly projecting, instead, economic power. Over the past decade, our country has spent trillions bombing roads, ports, bridges, and airports. China spent the equivalent building the same across the developing world. The Ukraine war is the final collapse of the Neocon's short-lived “American Century.” The Neocon projects in Iraq and Ukraine have cost $8.1 trillion, hollowed out our middle class, made a laughingstock of U.S. military power and moral authority, pushed China and Russia into an invincible alliance, destroyed the dollar as the global currency, cost millions of lives and done nothing to advance democracy or win friendships or influence.”
-Robert Kennedy Jr.
Hit and Run has had its members long several precious metal miners throughout March anticipating a new 5,000-year high in gold by the end of March.
It looks like we’re going to be a few days off.
Be that as it may, I would not be surprised to see a $100 up day soon.
On Tuesday, silver joined the party with a stunning breakout.
A weekly SLV shows it cleared a declining tops line (green) connecting the 2021 high and the 2022 high for a Rule of 4 Breakout, a breakout above a 3 point trend line.
There is a second Rule of 4 Breakout on deck, a tops line (black) from the 2020 spike high.
This ties to the top rail of an uptrending channel (blue) with a convergence just above at 23.50 ish.
One of my first market prognostications on gold came in 2011 when I forecast a runaway move in gold to kick-off in January 2009 in league with a bear market low in the stock market in March 2009.
That January Angular Rule of 4 Breakout (breakage over a 3 point trend line) call to kick off a bull market is reminiscent of Hit and Run’s call in October 2021 that January 2022 would kick off an ugly bear market.
But the top call I owe to my Square of 9 Wheel.
It flagged a Time/Price square-out at 1921 in early September.
Notably the monster move in August coincided with a parabolic buying climax.
In September, gold struck 1921 and left monthly Train Tracks.
I didn’t use any “indicators” to forecast the August 2011 top in gold.
I used the Square of 9 Time and Price calculator.
Indicators can be as faulty as fundamentals as indicators are more descriptive than predictive.
As for the fundamentals, QE3 kept most metals bulls looking to the long side during the entire bear market.
I had no idea the aforesaid square-out would perpetuate a 4-year plus decline.
The one-year “consolidation” following the August/September 2011 peak could have been viewed as a bullish high-level consolidation by the bulls.
But the sideways stint wore the best of traders out until a Rule of 4 Sell signal delivered the defining blow to the downside marking the beginning of a long slog into December 2015.
5 Years later in August 2020, gold made a short-lived all-time high slightly above the 2011 peak.
There’s something about August and gold.
Gold tested the August 2020 high two years later in March 2022.
That double top elicited a sharp into August/September 2022.
Checking GLD, remarkably, throughout the drop from March 2022 into October/November 2022, GLD never turned its 3 Month Chart down by tracing out 3 consecutive lower monthly lows.
GLD telegraphed higher in November 2022 with a large-range outside-up monthly bar.
Notably, the first monthly turndown in February failed to deliver downside follow-through.
Hit and Run was licking its chops when GLD/gold started to rally in March.
When GLD cleared the February highs, it triggered a Keyser Soze Reversal of a Reversal buy signal.
GLD has a date with destiny at the double tops from August 2020 and March 2022 at the 192 region.
The big question is whether GLD will rocket thru the double tops or respect them and consolidate pulling the rubber band back before exploding higher.
Where can GLD go from here?
Let’s just say it’s an all-time new high and it will likely occur in April and perhaps quickly.
That projection is reserved for subscribers.
From that projection, my expectation would be a pullback before a drive to the 232 region.
As offered on the Hit and Run Private Twitter Feed, GDXJ targets 47 based on the Sq of 9 Wheel in light of the recent breakout of a Ghost Line (blue).
Yesterday, Hit and Run members sold the balance of their FNV long swing for a 12-point gainer based on the Square of 9 Wheel Objective coming off the late September 109 low.
155 is 360 degrees up from 109.