April Showers

For the first time since the March 22 large range outside day reversal (Lightning Rod/LROD), the SPX, NAZ and IWM all turned their Daily Swing Charts up on Monday.

Markets rallied on the lightest volume since March 8.

Breadth was moderate.

The contraction in volume suggests that the bounce from the key March 13, 2023 low of 3808 may have become exhausted.

To recap, March 13 was when the -108 NYMO reading was struck.

Allow me to summarize once again what 100 years of history says and why my expectation is for April showers.

1) Over the last 100 years when NYMO reaches a reading below -100 in a Bear Market then both SPX and NYMO move higher, this produces a benchmark for the SPX.

2) That benchmark SPX level becomes our trigger level (3908),

3) Subsequently, when the SPX closes at a new low below that trigger level we can expect downside acceleration in the SPX to cycle low of at least 10-15% below the trigger level…the benchmark.

The SPX found high on the 7th session following the March 13 low, leaving a large range reversal last Wednesday.

I think it is important to note that the SPX was unable to turn its 3 Day Chart up during this rally off the March 13th low.

The implication is this has been a corrective (not impulsive) rally.

At the same time, the SPX has been unable to eclipse a declining trend line from the important February 2 high of 4195.

Consequently, the index has carved out 3 lower swing highs.

Fast moves often occur from a third lower high.

I call it a Power Surge setup.

As offered yesterday, the rally off the March 13 low may be tracing out the right shoulder of a continuation Head & Shoulders top pattern.

If so it is relevant that this right shoulder is being fulfilled below the 50 day moving average.

Last week I walked through the April 19 (plus or minus) Date of Destiny.

This April 20 is also a solar eclipse which sometimes intensifies a cycle or pivot point.

Remember that we are in the 93rd year since the April 1930 “return to normal” rally after the October 1929 crash.

The “so-far low” of this Bear Market was in October as well.

April is 180 degrees straight across and opposite October so this is another reason why April is pivotal.

Both months are infamous… as you know.

It’s rather remarkable synergy that 93 (as in 93 years ago) is square April 19/20 on my Square of 9 Wheel as shown last week.

You can’t make this stuff up.

We are also dealing with the Uranus return which is 84 years.

This ties to the war cycle for the U.S.

Counting from Jamestown in 1607, we are in the 5th cycle of 84 years of 420 years.

The culminating 5th wave of 84 years.

420 years from Jamestown is 2027 but markets nor war are a fine Swiss watch. It’s always plus or minus when it comes to cycles.

Notably, China is winding down their holdings of U.S. assets and ramping up their purchase of gold.

On the Square of 9 Wheel, 420 squares April 9-11 within a week of the April 19/20 sensitive point…one lunation after the Spring Equinox.

Lastly the low for the decline so far is SPX 3491 or 349.

349 squares October 13 -- the date of the low so far.

349 also squares April 19 since it is opposite mid-October.

An hourly trend line from the October 13 low ties to 3950.

Breakage below 3950 will trigger a Rule of 4 sell signal opening the door to the benchmark sell signal at 3808.