VuJa De

“The more things change the more they stay the same.”
-Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, 1849

“There is nothing new under the sun.”

Last week we showed an analogue with March 2020.

Below shows an analogue with 2008.

Analogues don’t follow to the “T”. They often rhyme.

I don’t know exactly where we would be in the 2009 analogue - if at all, but this 15 year snapshot is similar enough given it is 90 degrees of Gann’s Master 60 Year Cycle to be eerie.

2008 was a credit crisis.

We may be on the cusp of a currency and derivative crisis.

I am not an economist or a market strategist.

I am a technician who uses cycles and trend analysis.

The trend is down. Cycles are set to exert more downside influence from my perspective.

I don’t know what Powell is going to say on Wednesday but I’m sure they are trying to concoct some kind of love potion to assuage markets.

The markets seem to be celebrating a Fed Pivot.

But upon reflection, this may tank the dollar, playing right into the hands of China and Russia who are promoting alternative methods of international trade other than the dollar.

If we are facing an orifice of collapse of the dollar, all dollar denominated assets will be sold and gold will explode.

If rates are cut dramatically, the Fed will be seen to panic. Again.

The SPX could be at the October lows before the end of April.

Remember yesterday we noted that April 11 is opposite the October 13 low for the market.

In a nutshell (pun intended) this is interesting because 349 SPY (the October 2022 low) was square October 13. So by definition then April 11 is also square 349.

A short-term futures chart shows they are working on 3 drives to a high to the top of a channel.

That is a bearish pattern…typically.

To sum up, from my perspective, there isn’t a dime’s worth of difference between the close on Thursday and Monday.

Allow me to show you what I mean.

Thursday:

SPX had rebounded to close on bailout news to just above its 200 day ma resistance region.

The Summation Index was in a downtrend and closed at a new low for the year

The stochastics for SPX/VIX were overbought and rolling over.

Breadth was weak.

Monday:

SPX had rebounded on bailout news to close just above its 200 day ma resistance region.

The Summation Index was in a downtrend and closed at a new low for the year.

The stochastics for SPX/VIX were overbought and rolling over.

Breadth was weak.

The only significant difference is that Monday’s breadth was significantly weaker than at the close last Thursday with 900 fewer net advances on the NYSE and 1400 fewer on the NAZ.

Caution is warranted… news-driven orchestrated bounces notwithstanding.