By: Jeff Cooper

Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: March 17, 2023

Katy Bar the Door On Deck?

Since the mid-February rollover we’ve been looking at the March 15-17 time period as an important turning point.

As often is the case, the market leaves us without the resolution promised.

In other words, was the 15th an important low or will the 17th prove to be a significant high?

Today is the first quarterly opex for 2023.

On the Square of 9 Wheel March 17 ties to 391/392.

If we roll over, that region could magnetize the SPY lower.

If so, could we get a test of the 390 strike before settling at 391/392?

More importantly 397 (3970) is 360 degrees down from the all-time high of 4818 (481).

On Thursday, we tweeted that 3960-3970 represents a Measured Move.

In other words, on the hourlies, the move from the 3/13 low to the 3/14 high is the same as the move from 3/15 pullback low should the SPX satisfy 3970.

The SPX high for Thursday was 3965.

Almost a direct hit.

Be that as it may, a sell setup may be perfected today on trade just above Thursday’s high.

That is because trade above Thursday’s high gives two consecutive higher daily highs while the 3 Day Chart is pointing down.

That’s my Minus One/Plus Two sell setup.

As well, should the SPX push somewhat higher today, it will also satisfy a Holy Grail sell signal.

That is a test of its declining 20 day moving average.

So we have a trifecta of technicals:

1)      A Measured Move on the hourlies

2)      A possible Minus One/Plus Two on the dailies.

3)      A Holy Grail sell signal.

The entire pattern is analogous to the two strong days in September 2009 prior to the Lehman crash.

It is als0 analagous to the 2020 crash where the SPX had a three-day up-down-up bear bounce.

In both instances following the sharp bounce, it was “katy bar the door.’