By: Jeff Cooper

Hit and Run Morning Stock Report: March 9, 2023

The News Breaks With The Cycles, Not The Other Way Around

Markets traded in a narrow range on Wednesday ahead of three significant economic news releases this month.

Friday we get the jobs report.

Tuesday we get the CPI.

Wednesday we get the PPI.

Yesterday, going into this roundup of events, the SPX tested the close-only trend line from the October lows in the 3960 region.

We showed the chart yesterday.

The SPX managed to bounce off this trend line but only in the last 20 minutes when rabbits squeeze out of hats.

Markets seem on a trajectory lower into the cycles we have been eyeing that exert their influence into March 15-17.

While the 3960 3-point close only trend line is going to trigger a Rule of 4 Sell when it breaks, I don’t know if it is going to break on the slew of economic “news” we get going into next Tuesday.

But it’s going to break.

It is possible we get the C Wave rally back up toward 4100 first, but I must say that looks like the short straw at the moment.

Markets will likely gyrate “above the line” prior to Friday’s jobs report.

As to the big picture, there is no one alive who has lived through Pluto’s transit in Aquarius.

Although Pluto does not make full ingress until 2024, it is clear that social, economic and political upheaval will mark the next two decades, just as they did when Pluto last visited this area of the zodiac in the late 18th century. This was when we got the American and French revolutions.

This is one factor why we must be mindful that Super Cycle Wave 5 topped in late 2021/early 2022.

Technical vs Fundamental vs The Long Wave Cycle

There has always been a battle between technical and fundamental analysts. I have  been a student of the Long Wave cycle for a long time. The Long Wave cycle called for the next big move to be to the downside because the expectation is for a depression.

The recent expectation for “no landing” is fittingly ironic.

We are in the process of completing the second 40-year expansion of debt which is the period where debt is supposed to grow parabolically. Sadly, that is what has occurred.

As humans, we are probably the only species that believes things are random as opposed to cyclical. We all know the adage that “those who fail to study history are doomed to repeat it.” But we fail to study it anyway as for the most part, cycles are given short shrift.

The point is that the Long Wave cycle is expecting a collapse. This is important knowledge, but it is also important to understand that the Long Wave cycle is not a timing mechanism.

Debt is a major factor to deal with but currently we have multiple concerns such as war cycles and government corruption and energy concerns.