By Dan Darrow
October 04, 2022
Today's Trade Ideas
Strategy: Call Spread
Long Oct28 $62 call
Short Oct28 $67 call
Action Area: $1.45 - $.90
Comments: OKTA is a fast-developing bullish trade idea. The huge gap lower on earnings sent OKTA to a new multi-year low, and the week-long consolidation after the print set up a bearish 8day ema catch-up trade. Having closed the remainder of the recent swing trade into weakness, OKTA has been on watch for a revisit, and now it is setting up well for a trade again, though this time on the bull side. The stock found buyers in the low-50s early last week and rebounded Wednesday through Friday to reclaim the key 8day ema. Friday’s rally stalled at the 20day sma, but a strong session today sent OKTA through the last area of near-term resistance, opening the chart up for a run higher. The Oct28 call spread will be targeting an initial move to 63+ to begin locking in money, and the swing trade will have a tight stop below 55.25 (under Monday’s low and the 8day ema) or a 40-50% net debit loss, whichever happens first.
Strategy: Call Spread
Long Nov18 $160 call
Short Nov18 $170 call
Action Area: $4.00 - $4.60
Comments: FDX is a speculative bullish trade idea. FDX surprised traders by both releasing numbers early and also widely missing estimates. The surprisingly negative announcement led to a massive drop on 9/16, with the stock losing key 2022 support at 200 and sinking into the 150s. The selling continued over the following two weeks, and last Tuesday’s low (141.91) marked a nearly 30% loss since the disappointing headline. FDX has since rebounded, with today’s rally sending the stock up sharply and setting up an interesting near-term bull pattern. The stock reset the 8day ema during today’s session and closed near post-gap resistance at 160. If it can clear 161 now, it should build momentum for a fast move into the ~170 area to test the 20day sma. The Nov18 call spread will be a more speculative strategy targeting an initial move to 165+. The swing trade will use a 40-50% net debit loss as a stop.
On The Radar
RIVN had a great bounce-back day. After starting the weak on a down note (thanks to disappointing deliveries from TSLA), RIVN announced Monday post-close their own production numbers and reaffirmed expectations for the year, sending the stock ripping higher. RIVN made back all of last week’s losses today and rallied to close above the 8day ema, 20day sma, and 50day sma, setting the stock up for a near-term run to 40 again. The Dec16 call spread has plenty of time until expiration, so the plan will be to remain patient with the trade as it works its way higher.
CHPT had a strong session today as well, and the stock closed within striking distance of the 16.75 initial target. The big rally today sent CHPT up through the 50day sma and briefly above the 20day sma, though it pulled back modestly in the afternoon to finish under the latter. If CHPT can clear 16.50 early tomorrow, it should have a fast run to 17+, so we will be watching for an opportunity to scale back risk on the Oct28 call spread during the session.
Trader Author Portfolio Holdings
**As of 4pm ET October 04, 2022