The Power of Monthly Charts in Technical Analysis
In my technical analysis and moving averages lessons, I typically show daily charts. But sometimes it pays to pull back and look at longer time frames, like the monthly. This is especially true in a bear market, when daily charts can be full of noise without a clear trend. Let’s dissect the bust in Meta (META), which is down over 65% from its post-Pandemic highs, using a monthly chart. Positions Disclosure: Scott J. Redler is long AAPL, MBIO, PTON, QQQ, SPY, is short PTON calls, SPY calls, SPY puts Here’s the naked chart: Now let’s break the monthly chart down step-by-step. (A): It started with the $384 top set in August 2021, marked with the “A” on the chart: (B): META fell to $344 to confirm the false breakout, and to have us on our toes for more downside. (C): META then lost the 8 and 21 month moving averages as the stock blew threw support and free-falled. Remember, each bar on this chart represents a month, so traders had plenty of chances to just book the loss and avoid more damage on the way down. (D): Next, META broke below a bear flag $190, giving us yet another sell signal. (E): Meta breaks through $154 support to approach key levels at $123 and $113.55. The lesson here is simple: watch longer time frames, especially during a bear market. Sometimes, they can clarify things in a way daily charts can’t.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Stubbornly High Inflation Causing Market Turmoil
DJIA Futures: -522 (-1.8%) SPX Futures: -80 (-2.2%) NASDAQ Futures: -329 (-3.0%) Good morning friends! Futures are plunging, reversing earlier gains as a hotter-than-expected CPI shows inflation pressures remaining stubbornly high. Let’s get right to it! Stocks Plunge As Inflation Runs Hot Consumer inflation is still running red hot and that’s bad news for the stock market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index rose 0.4% monthly in September and 8.2% year over year. Both readings were higher than economists’ expectations even as the Fed hikes rates in an attempt to slow inflation. The higher prices were boosted by rising rent as gas prices fell. Gasoline prices were down 4.7% on a monthly basis but still up 19.7% year over year. Shelter prices rose 0.7% monthly and 6.6% annually. Food prices also continued to gain with groceries up 0.7% monthly and 13% annually. The core CPI – which excludes food and energy prices – rose 0.6% monthly and 6.6% year over year. Both of those were also hotter than expected. Weekly Jobless Claims Hit 7-Week High Weekly jobless claims jumped to a 7-week high in a sign that layoffs may be rising amid the Fed’s inflation fight. The Labor Department reported 228,000 Americans filed initial unemployment claims last week. That was up by 9,000 from the previous week and higher than expectations for 225,000. Claims have risen in three of the last four week and this is the highest level since late August. Continuing claims rose by 3,000 to 1.368 million in the week ending October 1. British Pound Jumps The British pound rallied against the dollar today following reports the British government is in talks to ditch parts of its recent tax cuts package. The pound hit an all-time low against the dollar after those unfunded tax cuts were announced on September 23. But Sterling traded 1.5% higher in London afternoon trading, hitting $1.1269. The government is reportedly considering reversing course on the changes to corporate taxes and dividend taxes. Walgreens Tops Fiscal Q Expectations Walgreens (WBA) shares are up 1% ahead of the open after beating fiscal Q4 expectations on the top and bottom line. Here’s how the healthcare company’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: Adjusted EPS: $0.80 vs $0.77 expected Revenue $32.5 billion vs 32.09 billion expected Pharmacy and retail sales declined 7.2% year over year while comparable sales rose 1.6%. Covid vaccines fell off sharply during the quarter with just 2.9 million administered vs 4.7 million in fiscal Q3 and 15.6 million in fiscal Q1. Delta Returns to Profitability, Revenue Hits Record Delta Airlines (DAL) shares are up 1.2% in premarket trade after reporting record-high revenue in Q3. Here’s how the airline’s results compared with analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $1.51 vs $1.53 expected Adjusted revenue: $12.84 billion vs $12.87 billion expected That revenue was 3% higher than 2019 levels thanks to higher prices as the airline flew a smaller schedule compared to Q3 2019. CEO Ed Bastian said, “The travel recovery continues as consumer spend shifts to experiences and demand improves in corporate and international.” But Delta’s costs continued to surge in the quarter. Fuel costs came in at $3.32 billion, up nearly 48% compared to 2019. Excluding fuel, costs per available seat mile were up nearly 23% compared to three years ago. Oil Prices Drop on Hot Inflation Data Oil prices have turned lower following the release of hot inflation data this morning. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 1.8% to under $86 bbl while Brent crude futures are falling 1.4% to $91 bbl. Prices were pushing higher earlier this morning amid fresh supply concerns after the International Energy Agency warned about the impact of OPEC+’s supply cuts. The agency said, “The OPEC+ … plan … has derailed the growth trajectory of oil supply through the remainder of this year and next, with the resulting higher price levels exacerbating market volatility and heightening energy security concerns.” The group downgraded its oil demand growth estimates to 1.9 million bpd and 1.7 million bpd in 2023. In Case You Missed It The minutes of the Fed’s September meeting show officials are not worried about going too far in their fight against inflation. The report said, “Many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action.” Officials said inflation is “showing little signs so far of abating” and they plan to continue rate hikes until they say evidence of a change.
Continue Reading -->Moving Averages for Stocks Explained: The Ultimate Guide to Trend Analysis for 2023
Moving averages are one of the most important technical analysis tools I use. They help me figure out:How aggressive I want to beMy mix of day and swing tradesWhich stocks and sectors I want to be long or shortJust how strong the current market trend isWhat news matters, and what doesn’tI rate moving averages above news, economic data, earnings, and just about any indicator you can think of.If I was a starting trader looking to build my net worth, moving averages would be my #1 focus.And through a series of new case studies, you will learn:What a moving average isHow moving averages are calculatedThe specific moving averages I use, and how I use them to detect strength and weaknessThe biggest myth of moving averages Editor’s Notes: If you want even more moving average case studies, please check out The Ultimate Guide to Moving Averages. Positions Disclosure: at the time of writing, Scott was long MBIO, SPY puts; was short SPY calls, SPY puts What Is a Moving Average? And How Are They CalculatedLet’s talk about how moving averages are calculated.A moving average is a stock’s average price over a specific time period.A daily moving average is the average of a stock’s daily closing prices over a specified number of days.(a weekly moving average would be the average of a stock’s weekly closing prices over a specified number of weeks)We’ll focus on the daily time frame in this guide. For example, the 50 day moving average is a stock’s average closing price for the last 50 days.Every day, the newest closing price in the moving average replaces the oldest, which is why we call it ‘moving’ — a moving average change every day.Here’s a simple chart of Apple (AAPL) with its 50 day moving average. The Biggest Myth About Moving AveragesPeople often say “moving averages don’t work” or “everyone sees the same moving averages, so they have no value”But here’s the reality: most serious technical analysts understand that a moving average is not the same as a trading strategy or even a signal. I don’t buy and sell purely because of a moving average.But moving averages do help me understand the trend which contributes to my overall decision-making process.That’s why they’re so valuable to me.Simple vs. Exponential Moving AveragesThere are 2 types of moving averages — simple and exponential. They are calculated in slightly different ways. A simple moving average is exactly what it sounds like — a simple average of the stock price. (the closing stock price, specifically) An exponential moving average gives extra weight to recent prices, so it does a better job of measuring the near-term trend. Here’s Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) with its 50 day simple (blue) and exponential (pink) moving averages.They’re pretty close, but the exponential (pink) is closer to the current price.The Moving Averages I UseTechnicians and traders have tended to focus on the 10, 20, 50, and 200 day simple moving averages, which you can think of as follows:10 day simple moving average: very short-term trend20 day simple moving average: short-term trend50 day simple moving average: intermediate trend200 day simple moving average: long-term trendI use a slightly different set of moving averages in my own trading, and in Redler All-Access:8 day exponential moving average: very short-term trend21 day exponential moving average: short term trend50 day exponential moving average: intermediate trend200 exponential moving average: long-term trend(I matched the colors here on the charts below.)I use exponential moving averages because they are more sensitive to the recent action, which gives me a better read on the near-term trend.Going forward in this article, all moving averages are exponential.Is There a Difference Between an 8 and 10 Day Moving Average?You may be asking “why the 8 day moving average? Why not the 10 day?”Most of the time, they’ll be very close together, as shown in this Amazon (AMZN) chart:But here’s what most people miss about moving averages: It’s not the exact moving averages you use that counts.It’s how well you use those moving averages to find opportunities, avoid trouble, and manage risk. I pay most attention to the 8 and 21 day exponential moving averages. I stick with those because my brain is trained to judge the action based on those time frames.If I was using, say, the 10 and 20 day simple moving averages, I’d probably end up with the same results — I’d just get there in a slightly different way.The Power of the 8 & 21 Day Exponential Moving AveragesTraders often ask me why I talk about the 8 & 21 day exponential moving averages so much. Whether you see me on Fox Business, CNBC, Twitter, or the Virtual Trading Floor®, odds are you’ll hear me me talking about them.Stocks that are in uptrends find support at the 8/21/50day. Stocks in downtrends get rejected at them on Bounces. Below the 200day is real selling. Rules to live by— Scott Redler (@RedDogT3) November 14, 2018 It’s because these moving averages are the most accurate short-term road map I’ve found.And I value moving average more than any other analysis I see out there.8 & 21 Day Moving Average Case Study I: The Energy SectorFrom the 2020 pandemic low to the time I’m writing this (October 2022), the energy sector dominated the market.Here is a chart of the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) from December 2021 to March 2022 with the 8 and 21 day exponential moving averages.As you can see, the moving averages are sloping up. What were they telling us?They were telling us the trend was strong. As you can see, OIH just trended up along the moving averages, with occasional breaks that were quickly reclaimed. This is a classic powerful uptrend. Even if you’re not long a stock or ETF like this, resist the urge to short. Remember, the trend can go a lot further than may seem reasonable. In this case, OIH was rising because the Ukraine war spiked energy prices. If something goes from $200 to $300+ while staying above the 8 & 21 day moving averages, don’t bet against it going higher. So I never, ever short stocks or ETFs that show momentum above the
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Wholesale Inflation is Still Running Hot
DJIA Futures: +49 (+0.2%) SPX Futures: +9 (+0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: +39 (+0.4%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher even after the release of some hot inflation data. Let’s get right to it! Wholesale Inflation Rises More than Expected Wholesale inflation pressures rose more than expected in September as prices remain stubbornly high in the face of the Fed’s tightening policy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price index rose 0.4% monthly and 8.5% annually vs analysts’ expectations for a 0.2% monthly increase and 8.4% annually. That was still a deceleration from the 8.7% annual increase in August. The core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.3% monthly and 7.2% annually. That was in line with expectations on a monthly basis and slightly lower on an annual basis. Producer prices are a leading indicator for consumer prices. The September consumer price index will be out tomorrow morning. PepsiCo Tops Q3 Expectations, Hikes Forecast PepsiCo (PEP) shares are up 2.1% ahead of the open after beating Q3 expectations and hiking its full-year forecast. Here’s how the beverage giant’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: Adjusted EPS: $1.97 vs $1.84 expected Revenue: $21.97 billion vs $20.84 billion expected Revenue rose 9% year over year. Pepsi said it is accelerating its cost management initiatives, including smaller sizes for its variety packs. The company now expects full-year revenue growth of 10% to 12% up from 10% previously. Pepsi also sees core constant EPS growth of 10% vs 8% in its prior forecast. Intel Reportedly Planning Job Cuts Intel (INTC) shares are up 0.8% in premarket trade following a Bloomberg report the company is considering thousands of job cuts. The report said those layoffs will be announced as early as this month. Some divisions, like sales and marketing, are expected to see cuts that affect about 20% of staff. The reported plan comes in the face of a sharp slowdown in PC demand. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) released preliminary Q3 results last week that sharply missed expectations due to that slowing demand. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Demand Jumps Mortgage demand fell last week as rates pushed higher but buyers are now looking toward more risky loan types in order to purchase a home. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume fell 2% last week as the average 30-year fixed contract rate rose to 6.81% from 6.75%. That’s the highest rate since 2006. But the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was lower at 5.56. The ARM share of applications last week was just under 12% vs 3% at the beginning of this year. Purchase applications fell 2% weekly and were down 39% annually. Refinance applications also fell 2% weekly and plunged 86% compared to a year ago. Oil Prices Fall Flat Oil prices are slightly lower today as the strong dollar overshadows supply worries. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 0.4% to under $89 bbl while Brent crude futures are down 0.2% to $94 bbl. The market is in a back-and-forth over supply and demand with the strong U.S. dollar also pushing prices lower. The dollar hit a 24-year high against the yen today, making dollar-denominated commodities like oil more expensive for other currency holders. Fed Minutes on Deck The Fed will release the minutes of its September policy meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET today. The bank voted for its third straight 0.75% rate hike at that meeting and penciled in another large rate hike at the November meeting as well. The market will be looking at the minutes for more clarity on the bank’s discussion around when rates will peak. Traders have been hoping for an earlier Fed pivot than laid out in the dot plot if the economy continues to weaken. But today’s PPI data and last week’s strong jobs data don’t make that case.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Stocks Are In A Free Fall
DJIA Futures: -32 (-0.1%) SPX Futures: -8 (-0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: -28 (-0.3%) Good morning friends! Futures are lower with tech stocks sliding further after the Nasdaq closed at a fresh 2-year low on Monday. Let’s get right to it! Bank of England Steps In Again The Bank of England announced an expansion of its emergency bond-buying operation today as it looks to stabilize the bond market. The BOE said it will widen its purchases of U.K. government bonds to include index-linked gilts through the end of this week. The move comes after the bank also increased the limit for its daily purchases on Monday. The Bank of England said, “Dysfunction in this market, and the prospect of self-reinforcing ‘fire sale’ dynamics pose a material risk to UK financial stability.” U.K. 10-year index-linked gilt yields surged 64 basis points on Monday as prices tumbled 5.5% while 30-year index-linked gilt prices tumbled 16%. The sell-off stabilized after the Bank of England’s announcement. U.S. Treasury yields are mixed today after the bond market was closed on Monday. The 2-year yield is down 1 basis point to 4.31% while the 10-year yield is up 3 basis points to 3.92%. Coinbase Rallies on Google Partnership Coinbase (COIN) shares are up 5.4% ahead of the open after Google announced it will use the platform to allow some customers to pay for cloud services with crypto in early 2023. The partnership was announced at Google’s Cloud Next conference. Coinbase will also use Google’s cloud infrastructure for its business. The crypto platform will move data-related applications from the Amazon Web Services cloud to Google. Google’s Cloud Platform will start by accepting crypto payments from a handful of customers in Web3. Those payments will be made possible by integrating with the Coinbase Commerce service, which supports 10 different cryptocurrencies. Coinbase will earn a percentage of all transactions that go through that service. GM Reveals New Energy Unit General Motors (GM) shares are slipping 0.2% in premarket trade after the automaker announced a new energy business. GM Energy will provide stationary battery packs, solar panels, EV chargers, and more to homes and businesses. The commercial operations are already underway with the home energy systems set to be available next year as the Chevy Silverado EV goes on sale. GM said the goal is to assist the automaker in controlling the customer experience when they purchase a new EV and create a sustainable business. The vice president of GM’s EV growth operations said the total market of products and services being targeted by the new unit is between 125 billion and $250 billion. The new business comes at a time of increased power grid issues across the U.S. American Airlines Hikes Q3 Revenue Forecast American Airlines (AAL) shares are up 4.5% ahead of the open after hiking its Q3 sales outlook. The airline now expects last quarter’s sales to be 13% higher than Q3 2019, up from its previous forecast of a 10% to 12% increase. American also expects a pretax margin of 4.5% vs the prior estimate of no more than 4%. But the carrier said it still flew 9.6% fewer flights than in Q3 2019, showing passengers are just paying higher prices for flights. American will report Q3 results before the market open on October 20. Recession Fears Grip Oil Market Oil prices are sliding further today as recession fears and worries about Covid restrictions in China take over. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 1.2% to $90 bbl while Brent crude futures are down 1% to $95 bbl. The World Bank President and the IMF Managing Director both warned Monday that the global economy is at growing risk of a recession. Demand is also expected to fall further in China as a flare-up in Covid cases prompts new restrictions. In Case You Missed It JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned Monday that the U.S. economy would likely be in a recession by mid-2023. He told CNBC the economy is “actually still doing well” currently and said consumers are in better shape for this recession vs the 2008 financial crisis. Dimon said the Fed “waited too long and did too little” as inflation soared early on but now the central bank is “clearly catching up”. He said the S&P 500 could fall by “another easy 20%” and “the next 20% would be much more painful than the first”.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Inflation Jitters Grip Traders
DJIA Futures: +32 (+0.1%) SPX Futures: +1 (+0.03%) NASDAQ Futures: -11 (-0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are flat as traders gear up for a big week of inflation data and the beginning of Q3 earnings season. Let’s get right to it! Inflation Week Begins This is a key week of economic data for the market as traders look ahead to the latest inflation data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September producer price index on Wednesday morning followed by the consumer price index Thursday morning. Economists expect the CPI to show inflation pressures rose 0.3% monthly and 8.1% year over year. The core CPI is expected to have risen 0.5% monthly and 6.6% annually. The market is looking for a slowdown in inflation to force a Fed pivot on rate hikes earlier than planned. But officials have insisted in recent speeches that the Central Bank will stay its course even if it pushes the economy into a recession. Several more Fed officials will speak at events this week including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard today. Rivian Issues Massive Recall Rivian (RIVN) shares are tumbling 6.5% ahead of the open after issuing a massive recall over the weekend. The electric automaker voluntarily recalled 13,000 vehicles due to a loose fastener that could cause a driver to lose steering control. The company has produced just 14,317 vehicles this year, meaning the recall impacts nearly all of the already delivered vehicles. Rivian’s CEO sent a letter to customers saying, “In rare circumstances, the nut could loosen fully… It’s important not to minimize the potential risks involved and why we are volunteering to conduct this recall.” Tesla’s China Sales Hit Record Tesla (TSLA) shares are up 0.1% in premarket trade after reporting record-high China sales. The China Passenger Car Association said the electric automaker sold 83,135 of its China-made vehicles in wholesale in September. That was up 8% from August and a record for Tesla. Tesla produces the Model 3 and Model Y vehicles at the Shanghai plant. Oil Prices Dip Oil prices are taking a breather, slipping from 5-week highs. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 0.4% at $92 bbl while Brent crude futures are down 0.5% to under $97.50 bbl. The dip comes after China’s services activity contracted in September for the first time in four months. That slowdown came as fresh Covid restrictions put pressure on the economy. China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer and any slowdown in demand will put pressure on oil prices.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Good News is Bad News
DJIA Futures: -252 (-0.8%) SPX Futures: -42 (-1.1%) NASDAQ Futures: -179 (-1.6%) Good morning friends! Futures are dropping as Treasury yields pop after an unexpected drop in unemployment in September. Let’s get right to it! Mixed September Jobs Report Good news is bad news for Wall Street this morning. Job growth came in slightly weaker than expected in September but the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly. The Labor Department reported the U.S. added 263,000 jobs last month vs 275,000 expected. That was the smallest expansion since April 2021. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% vs expectations for it to be unchanged at 3.7%. The labor force participation rate edged lower to 62.3% from 62.4% in August. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month to month and 5% year over year. Job growth in July was revised higher by 11,000 workers to +537,000 while August was unchanged at +315,000. Today’s report shows the U.S. labor market maintaining strength amid the Fed’s fight against inflation, giving the bank more room to stay aggressive on rate hikes. Treasury Yields Pop After Jobs Report Treasury yields are rising after the release of that September jobs report. The 2-year yield is up 7 basis points to 4.33% while the 10-year yield is up 7 basis points to 3.90%. The unexpected drop in unemployment and continued wage gains pushed off the possibility of a Fed pivot sooner than planned. The Central Bank has said it expects to see a weakening in the labor market before it changes course on rate hikes. Judge Delays Twitter, Musk Trial Twitter (TWTR) shares are down 0.7% ahead of the open after a judge delayed the trial between Twitter and Elon Musk. The judge pushed that trial to October 28 from the original date of October 17. Twitter had previously asked to proceed with the trial, accusing Musk of refusing to accept the “contractual obligations” of his agreement to buy the company. The delay now gives Musk more time to complete that takeover. He revived the purchase offer on Monday but said he needed time to get financing in order. In a statement after the judge’s ruling, Twitter said, “We look forward to closing the transaction at $54.20 by October 28th.” AMD’s Preliminary Results Disappoint Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares are down 6.2% in premarket trade after releasing weak preliminary Q3 results on Thursday. The chipmaker reported preliminary revenue of $5.6 billion vs prior guidance of $6.7 billion. The company also said its non-GAAP gross margin is expected to come in around 50% vs guidance of 54%. AMD blamed the miss on “weaker than expected PC market and significant inventory correction actions across the PC supply chain.” Samsung Warns of Large Q3 Profit Drop Samsung is anticipating a large drop in its Q3 operating profit. The chipmaker said today it expects operating profit to be between 10.7 trillion and 10.9 trillion South Korean won. That would be down 32% and the first drop since 2019. The company blamed weaker memory pricing and demand for that plunge. Oil Prices Rise Further Oil prices are up again today and on track for weekly gains after OPEC+ voted to cut production. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 0.8% to over $89 bbl while Brent crude futures are up 0.7% to over $95 bbl. Analysts expect prices to return to $100 bbl as the OPEC+ cut takes effect in November. But those gains will be capped by lower demand as the global economy slows.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Nothing More Than a Bear Market Rally
DJIA Futures: -53 (-0.2%) SPX Futures: -6 (-0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: -1 (-0.01%) Good morning friends! Futures are slightly lower as this week’s big rally appears to have been nothing more than a bear market bounce. Let’s get right to it! Weekly Jobless Claims Jump This week’s jump in jobless claims is the largest since June. The Labor Department reported 219,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week. That was up by 29,000 from the week before and higher than 203,000 expected. Continuing claims also rose by 10,000 to 1.36 million in the week ending September 24. This is the final piece of jobs data this week before the official September jobs report on Friday. Economists expect that to show the U.S. economy added 275,000 jobs last month with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. Peloton Slashes 500 More Jobs Peloton (PTON) shares are up 1.8% after announcing more job cuts. The exercise equipment maker is cutting 500 more jobs, which amounts to about 12% of its workforce. CEO Barry McCarthy told CNBC, “The restructuring is done with today’s announcement. Now we’re focused on growth.” McCarthy took over as CEO earlier this year and has pushed for drastic changes to the business model to return to growth. He said, “I’m feeling about as optimistic as I’ve ever felt” and that Peloton is on track to meet its cash flow goals for this fiscal year. Ford Hikes F-150 Lightning Price Ford (F) shares are down 0.3% in premarket trade after the automaker hiked the starting price for its F-150 Lightning electric pickup on Wednesday. The entry-level price for the 2023 model year will rise by $5,000 to $51,974. That’s up nearly 11% from the previous price hike and 30% from the original price in May 2021. The F-150 Lightning will top out at $97,000. Ford said the price hike is ““due to ongoing supply chain constraints, rising material costs and other market factors. We will continue to monitor pricing across the model year.” Oil Prices Hover Near 3-Week High Oil prices are up slightly this morning after OPEC+ voted for its largest supply cut since 2020 on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 0.1% to just under $88 bbl while Brent crude futures are up 0.1% to just over $93 bbl. OPEC+ voted to decrease output by 2 million barrels per day starting in November. The move is meant to support oil prices as crude prices are down sharply from the high of over $130 bbl in the spring. The White House denounced the decision in a statement saying the President was, “disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.” The statement said Biden has ordered the release of another 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve next month and “will also consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices.” Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels last week vs 1.5 million expected. Gasoline stockpiles fell by 4.7 million barrels vs 2.3 million expected. In Case You Missed It Activity in the U.S. services sector slowed less than expected in September. The Institute for Supply Management’s services PMI fell to 56.7% from 56.9% in August. That was higher than expectations for a drop to 56%. New orders and employment both rose while production and prices paid fell.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: This Is Not What the Fed Wants to See
DJIA Futures: -292 (-1.0%) SPX Futures: -37 (-1.0%) NASDAQ Futures: -120 (-1.0%) Good morning friends! Futures are falling after a big two-day rally as new data shows the labor market maintaining strength amid the Fed’s inflation fight. Let’s get right to it! Private Sector Adds More Jobs Than Expected in September Private employers added more workers than expected in September in a sign of the labor market maintaining strength in the face of the Fed’s aggressive tightening. Payroll firm ADP reported the U.S. private sector added 208,000 jobs last month vs 200,000 expected. That was up from the revised 185,000 in August. Trade, transportation, and utilities saw the largest growth adding 147,000 workers. Wages also continued to rise with annual pay up 7.8% year over year. This data is not what the Fed wants to see in its fight against inflation. Central Bankers have previously said they need to see a slowdown in the labor market for inflation to slow. The Labor Department releases the official September jobs report on Friday. That’s expected to show the economy added 275,000 jobs last month with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. Trade Deficit Hits 15-Month Low The U.S. trade deficit fell to a 15-month low in August. The Commerce Department reported the U.S. ran a deficit of $67.4 billion. That was down 4.3% from July, the fifth monthly decline in a row. It was also lower than economists’ expectations for $67.7 billion. Exports fell 0.3% to $258.9 billion while imports dropped 1.1% to $326.3 billion. Mortgage Demand Plummets Mortgage demand plummeted last week as higher rates and Hurricane Ian pressured buyers. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume dropped 14.2% weekly, to the lowest level since 1997. Purchase applications fell 13% weekly and 37% year over year. Refinance applications were down 18% weekly and 86% annually. The drop came as the average 30-year fixed contract rate rose to 6.75% from 6.52%, the highest since 2006. The higher rates pushed more homebuyers to turn to adjustable-rate mortgages. ARMs made up 11.8% of the mortgage applications last week, up from 8.5% a month ago and around 3% at the start of 2022. Oil Prices Flat as OPEC+ Meets Oil prices are flat today as OPEC+ meets to consider a production cut. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are just above $86.50 bbl while Brent crude futures are just under $92 bbl. Sources told Reuters OPEC+ will consider output cuts as large as 2 million barrels per day at today’s meeting. The American Petroleum Institute reported Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels last week and gasoline inventories dropped by 3.5 million barrels. The Energy Information Administration reports official supply levels later today. In Case You Missed It Twitter (TWTR) shares surged 22.2% on Monday after Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk agreed to go through with his purchase of the company. In a statement, Twitter said it had received a letter from Musk’s lawyers saying he intends to proceed with the transaction. The deal is expected to close as soon as Friday with Musk purchasing Twitter at the agreed-upon price of $54.20 per share. TWTR shares are down 1.4% ahead of the open while TSLA is down 2%.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Traders Extend Monday’s Relief Rally
DJIA Futures: +359 (+1.2%) SPX Futures: +55 (+1.5%) NASDAQ Futures: +203 (+1.8%) Good morning friends! Futures are up following Monday’s big relief rally. Let’s get right to it! Traders Look to Extend Rally Stocks are set to rally at the open after surging on Monday. The Dow Jones jumped 2.7% on Monday for its best day since June 24. The S&P 500 rose 2.6%, its best day since July 27. And the Nasdaq closed up 2.3%. Many analysts expect volatility to continue in the weeks ahead as the Fed continues its aggressive campaign against inflation. Treasury Yields Slide Further Treasury yields are sliding again today as stocks rally. The 2-year yield is down 5 basis points to 4.06% while the 10-year yield is down 4 basis points to 3.60%. Yields seem to have hit a ceiling last week when the 10-year briefly topped 4% before retreating. Sentiment across the market seems to be leaning toward a Fed pivot in the near future. Several Fed officials will speak today and give more insight into whether that is an appropriate anticipation from the market. Rivian On Pace for 2022 Production Goal Rivian (RIVN) shares are up 7.4% after reporting Q3 production data on Monday. The electric automaker said it produced 7,363 vehicles last quarter, its highest quarterly total yet. The company delivered 6,584 vehicles to customers during the quarter. Rivian confirmed it’s on track to produce 25,000 vehicles in 2022. Year to date the automaker has produced 14,317 vehicles. Poshmark Rallies On Takeover Deal Poshmark (POSH) shares are rallying 13.5% in premarket trade after South Korean internet giant Naver announced it will buy the company for roughly $1.2 billion. Naver will pay $17.90 per share for Poshmark. The companies said this deal will widen Naver’s reach in online retail and allow Poshmark to expand to international markets. Poshmark went public in January 2021 at $42 a share but has since tumbled alongside the rest of the tech sector. Oil Prices Rise Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting Oil prices are rising further ahead of Wednesday’s OPEC+ meeting. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 1.9% to over $85 bbl while Brent crude futures are up 2.1% to just under $91 bbl. OPEC+ is expected to cut output by more than 1 million barrels per day on Wednesday. But the impact of that cut may not be that severe as the group has failed to meet its planned production increases in recent months. Production fell short by 3.6 million bpd in August. In Case You Missed It General Motors (GM) shares rose 2.4% after the automaker reported strong sales growth in Q3. GM sold 555,580 vehicles last quarter, up 24% year over year. That was higher than analysts’ expectations for growth of at least 21.6%. The company said it plans to increase production of its Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV after selling 14,709 of the vehicles in Q3.
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