Moving Averages for Swing Trading: Your 2025 Trend Analysis Guide
I can’t live without my moving averages. They’re among my most important technical analysis tools — especially when it comes to finding winning swing trade ideas.My charts would feel naked without them!Moving averages help me determine:How long (or short) I want to be in my swing trading accountWhich stocks and sectors I want to buy (or avoid)How strong the current market trend isWhat news matters, and what doesn’tI rate moving averages above news, economic data, earnings, and any indicator you can think of.If I was a starting swing trader looking to build my net worth, moving averages would be my #1 focus. Because price never lies.And through a series of new trading case studies updated for 2024, you will learn:What a moving average isHow to calculate various types of moving averagesThe specific moving averages I use in my swing trading, and how I use them to find new ideasHow to use moving averages to avoid losing stocksThe #1 myth of moving averages Editor’s Note: If you want to get Scott’s favorite idea each week, make sure you go here to check out Power Plays. It’s where Scott puts these moving average strategies to work to find potential winners. Positions Disclosure: as of 2024-11-14 at 2.26.29 PM, Scott was long AAPL, AMZN, IBIT, LCID, MSOS, TSLA, AAPL calls, AMC calls, AMZN calls, ASTS calls, GLD calls, GRPN calls, NVDA calls, OKLO calls, ONON calls, RUM calls, SOXL calls, TAN calls, XBI calls; was short SPY calls, TLSA puts, TSLA calls What Is a Moving Average? And How Are They Calculated?The first thing you need to know is how moving averages are calculated.A moving average is a stock’s average price over a specific time period.A daily moving average is the average of a stock’s daily closing prices over a certain number of days.(a weekly moving average would be the average of a stock’s weekly closing prices over a certain number of weeks)We’ll focus on the daily time frame in this tutorial since we’re talking about swing trading.For example, the 50 day moving average on a daily chart is a stock’s average closing price for the last 50 days.Every day, the newest closing price in the moving average replaces the oldest, which is why we call it ‘moving.’ It changes every day.Here’s a chart of Nvidia (NVDA) with its 50 day simple moving average. The #1 Myth About Moving AveragesYou often hear people say “moving averages don’t work” or “everyone sees the same exact moving averages on the same charts, so they have no value!”But here’s the reality: most serious technical analysts understand that a moving average is not the same as a trading strategy or even a signal. I don’t buy and sell purely because of a moving average.But moving averages do help me read the trend which improved my decision-making process.They are a big piece of the puzzle. Not the entire puzzle!What Is the Difference Between Simple and Exponential Moving Averages?There are 2 types of moving averages — simple and exponential. Each is calculated in a slightly different way. A simple moving average is just what it sounds like — a simple average of the stock price. (the closing stock price, specifically) An exponential moving average gives extra weight to recent prices, so it does a better job of measuring the near-term trend. It’s not worth getting into the math here. Here’s Google (GOOGL) with its 50 day simple (blue) and exponential (pink) moving averages.The Moving Averages I Use for Swing TradingTechnicians and traders tend to focus on the 10, 20, 50, and 200 day simple moving averages, which you can think of as follows:8 day simple moving average: very short-term trend21 day simple moving average: short term trend50 day simple moving average: intermediate trend200 simple moving average: long-term trendI use a slightly different set of moving averages in my own swing trading, and in my services like Power Plays.8 day exponential moving average: very short-term trend21 day exponential moving average: short term trend50 day exponential moving average: intermediate trend200 exponential moving average: long-term trendI use these same colors on the charts below.I use exponential moving averages in my swing trading because they are more sensitive to the recent price action, which gives me a better read on the short-term trend.Going forward in this article, all moving averages will be exponential.Is There a Difference Between an 8 and 10 Day Moving Average?You may be asking “Scott, why do you use the 8 day moving average? Why not the 10 day?”Most of the time, the 8 and 10 day moving averages will be very close together, as you can see in this ARM Holdings (ARM) chart:So are they the same thing? Pretty much.But here’s what most people miss about moving averages: It’s not the exact moving averages you use that counts.It’s how you use your moving averages to find new buying opportunities, avoid trouble, and manage your risk. When it comes to finding new swing trade ideas, I pay most attention to the 8 and 21 day exponential moving averages. I stick with them, because my brain is trained to judge the action based on those time frames.If I was using, say, the 10 and 20 day simple moving averages, I’d end up with similar results — I’d just get there in a slightly different way.Imagine you were training for a marathon.What matters more? How hard you work — or your brand of running shoes?The Power of the 8 & 21 Day Exponential Moving Averages in Swing TradingTraders often ask me why I talk about the 8 & 21 day exponential moving averages so much. Whether you see me on Fox Business, Twitter/X, or the Virtual Trading Floor®, you know I never go a few days without talking about my moving averages strategies.It’s because these moving averages are the most accurate short-term road map I’ve found.And I value moving average more than any other analysis I see out there.8 & 21 Day Moving Average Case Study I: The Bitcoin Turkey TrotOne of the biggest trading stories of the 2024 US Presidential Election was the surge in Bitcoin.I’d been very bullish on Bitcoin for many reasons — including the likelihood of
Continue Reading -->The Trump Trade Can Still Win Bigly
In Episode 8 of the T3 Brain Trust, the team explains why the Trump Rally can keep on going: This episode is JAMMED with insights from our team: JR Highlights: Bitcoin can go to $126,000 – a prediction he admits is “fully preposterous” Tesla (TSLA) could correct to $310 to $312.50 before a big rally to $400 SPX can hit 6700 in Q1 The market has undergone a massive change in character since the election He is now a “small cap megabull” The market is not pricing in GDP and wage growth, which could offset higher inflation Nvidia (NVDA) is going to $200 We are not near the top in AI because demand is being underestimated The payment processors including Block (SQ) have big upside potential Sami’s Highlights: Bitcoin has NOT gone climactic yet the way China did Tesla still looks fantastic The market rally has more room to go NVDA looks bullish right now – though he hasn’t made an opinion on earnings just yet There are not many great charts because his favorite names like Twilio (TWLO) and Zoom (ZM) have rallied so much He is mega-bullish on Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Derrick Highlights: The reason he does not trade Bitcoin – even if he thinks he can make money from it Why he was short 2 of the hottest names in the market — Palantir (PLTR) and Tesla (TSLA) Why TSLA was headed to $315 to $317 (which it reached the day after this stream) How he used the Level 2 to spot a shorting opportunity in PLTR NVDA needs a big earnings report to rally because it is hyped up He is bullish on the market overall – though interest rates and the US dollar represent a risk *Derrick Oldensmith’s Positions as of 2024-11-14 at 10:40 am ET: Long BABA, BYON, CVX, DIS, EVGN, GDX, JD, PATH, QRTEA, TELO, TSE, TZA, U; is short BITX, PLTR, TQQQ, TSLA, UPRO
Continue Reading -->This Stock Could TRIPLE
There are few beautiful charts out there. But Sami Abusaad believes Affirm Holdings (AFRM) could go from $53 to $150. Sami also goes over: Why he’s been so bullish on Twilio (TWLO) and Zoom (ZM) – both “double positions” in the Strategic Swing Trader Newsletter What is unique about AFRM’s monthly chart, and why Sami loves it The reason he likes AFRM more than PayPal (PYPL) The short-term bull case for Altice USA (ATUS) Medifast’s (MED) strong daily chart and buy setup And More!
Continue Reading -->[Updated] Tesla & Bitcoin Game Plans
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are +8. As long as SPX holds the 5960 area, this active sequence can stay constructive without too much shaking of the tree. 6017 is the all-time pivot high. Bulls are starting to talk about 6300 in Q1. Overall, I’ve playing a little defense, but select trades are still working so I’m on the hunt for new ideas. Now let’s dig into some of our focus names. Bitcoin smashed through my $85,000 target way faster than I expected. It hit $94,000 and put in a huge topping tail. So I’ll have less exposure until we get some much-needed digestion. I’ll be looking to enter WULF, CORZ, MARA and MSTR again because Bitcoin could see $100,000 by Christmas. TSLA was a big hit on the election, and Power Plays made its final exit at $345.45 on Monday. Now the game plan is to wait for the $310 area, where it could set up another big trade opportunity. JPM hit a high of $248 and has since created a tight wedge-type pattern. This might help with the next direction. Above $244, perhaps it goes higher. Below $238, and it could see the $234 gap below. XBI is still frustrating. I added it to Power Plays at $102.54 and it’s been stuck in the mud since then. The ASH conference on December 7-10 is a potential catalyst, but if this breaks below $99, I’ll think about switching gears. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-11-14 at 8.30.58 AM
Continue Reading -->SPX 6700 Is Coming. And You Can’t Stop It.
JR Romero predicts SPX 6,700 is coming in Q1 – making him more bullish than even FundStrat’s Tom Lee: JR also explains: How he went from IWM hater to small-cap bull What people are missing about the economy Why Nvidia (NVDA) is going to $200 Why Block (SQ) is going to $150 BTW… have you seen JR’s recent predictions? Check ’em out: Why SPX Will Hit 6000+ (October 9) Why Tesla Is Going to $300 (July 11) Why Bitcoin Is Going to $126,000 (November 13)
Continue Reading -->The Case for Bitcoin $126,000
JR Romero has been a massive Bitcoin bull since the low $60,000’s. And he still likes it: JR explains: The unique personality of Bitcoin post-election Why $91,000 is a key level here How Bitcoin $126,000 could be a reality Why the US dollar index (DXY) is key to Bitcoin’s performance Why retail is getting involved How to tell if the crypto rally is getting overheated (it has to do with the parking valet…) And as a bonus, JR shares his price target for Netflix (NFLX) at the end of the video… BTW, did you see JR’s predictions of SPX 6000 and Tesla $300? Check them out here: Why SPX Will Hit 6000+ (October 9) Why Tesla Is Going to $300 (July 11)
Continue Reading -->How to Break This Market (Hint: It Won’t Be Easy)
Sami Abusaad | Strategic Swing TraderOn Friday, the market put in a trend day – the most bullish type of day you can get. However, Sami does not change his strategies based on a single bar alone. See what Sami needs to see before he buys into a real trend change. Then, see this week’s swing trading watchlist, which includes names like WATT, APHA, BITA, and KDP.
Continue Reading -->Bitcoin + Tesla Go BOOM!
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. Welcome to the latest edition of Dog Bytes! SPX futures are +17 to start the week after a huge post-election trade. Europe is broadly higher. China is still choppy with no continuity. SPX hit a high of 6012 thanks to Trump enthusiasm and string seasonality. Bitcoin, TSLA, IWM, XBI, and AMZN have been key names for us lately. Now let’s dig into some of our recent Power Plays names: Bitcoin became my #1 theme on October 11th. It was $62ish and it hit $82k+. I’d always take some profits, but I’d think the Turkey Trot continues toward $85k by Thanksgiving. We participated in Power Plays via IBIT, WULF, and MSTR. I already trimmed my IBIT and WULF longs today. AMZN broke a massive barrier by getting through $200 once and for all. It hit a high of $212+ last week and I sold most of my $202.50 and $207.50 calls. I’d think this holds $207ish and sees the $220+ area in the weeks ahead. TSLA smashed through my $300-$315 forecast way faster than I thought. It went to $328+ Friday and is at $342+ this morning. I’ll trim and trail. Do not get cute and fight this move. XBI joined Power Plays on Wednesday because I expected it to break through long-standing resistance around $103. It’s finally waking up and I exepct higher prices into year-end. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Trading Tip for This Week: Have a Plan I follow a strict set of risk management principles so I keep moving in the right direction. I respect key moving averages, pay close attention to the big trends, and keep losing trades in check. And, most importantly, I enter every day with a plan. When the market opens, I have a list of stocks I’m ready to buy or sell at specific levels depending on what I see. This way, I’m ready to react instead of hoping to stumble onto opportunities. Making a plan is not only important for my trading, but I consider it to be a major part of my job description. This Week’s Calendar All eyes are on CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales this week. And we have some key names reporting earnings like HD, SPOT, CSCO, DIS, AMAT, and BABA. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-11-11 at 8.41.46 AM
Continue Reading -->Why Now Is The Time For XBI and IWM with David Prince
David Prince remains bullish both small caps and biotech into the end of the year. He explains why the Trump election win makes higher interest rates less of a headwind for both IWM and XBI in this video: David also discusses: Why this time of year tends to be the best for IWM and XBI Why $103 is such a wall for XBI Whether the weight loss drug story may be running out of steam If the post-election rally will continue The state of the housing market amid higher rates And more! Want to work with David? Apply to join the Inner Circle here!
Continue Reading -->How JR Became Mr. October (and November)
JR Romero is our Reggie Jackson — our very own Mr. October. And with how things are going, he’ll be Mr. November too! On September 25, JR issued a $200 price target on Nvidia (NVDA). And since then it’s run from $123 to $146+ this morning. Then on October 9, he said the SPX will hit 6000+. You can watch that hot take here: So we wanted to update you on JR’s takes from this now-legendary video. First, the SPX went from 5792 up to 5952. What else happened in that video? JR said Palo Alto Networks (PANW) was going back to $380. It hit $386.20. He also issued an insane $250-$254 price target on controversial Bitcoin name Microstrategy (MSTR). Mind you, MSTR was at $188.91 when JR issued that target. And it hit $267.89 on October 29. And of course JR has been bullish on Bitcoin since early October – a full home run! But what about Carnival (CCL)? JR predicted a $7-8 measured move. It’s gone from $18.87 to $24.34 already. He also said Robinhood (HOOD) looks fantastic. It’s gone from $25.65 to $30.06 as one of the biggest post-election winners. Nutanix (NTNX) was also in focus. JR said it would fill the gap to the $71 handle. And it went from $63.17 to $69.95. And his other picks Starbucks (SBUX), Chewy (CHWY, Air Products (APD), and Snowflake (SNOW) are up modestly. So JR 7 big wins, and 4 little wins. 11 for 11. Not bad, huh?
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