The Morning Hammer: Those That Know Don’t Tell…
Options > Dividends Find out more at our FREE training event… ******** The pound is rallying after UK PM Theresa May said that Parliament should vote on her Brexit plan. This implies a more deliberate approach to the UK leaving the building, which could soften the Brexit blow a bit. Crude oil popped above $51 after OPEC said it has a firm commitment from Russia to participate in an output cut. However, keep in mind that the oil newsflow is all over the place, and this story is truly not over until it’s over. (you know what I mean) As an illustration of how fluid the situation is, Bloomberg is reporting that Venezuela and Iraq are disputing OPEC’s reported output data. I assume that having no consensus on where output is now makes it more difficult to decide on where output should be. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs is out saying US oil explorers will boost activity with oil in the $50 – $55 range. I don’t think the market disagrees with that, given that oil service names (OIH) have already rallied nearly 50% off February lows. Samsung cut its Q3 operating profit forecast by $2.3 billion after halting production of the Galaxy Note 7, which is prone to catch fire. The big item on today’s agenda is the release of the September Fed Minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET. Even with Friday’s mediocre jobs numbers and the Fed’s mixed message in the September rate decision, traders have been upping their bets on a December rate hike. Fed Funds futures are pricing in a 67% chance of a December rate hike, up from 62% at the September rate decision. Of course, the big question isn’t necessarily “what will the Fed do in December?” It’s “how fast is the pace thereafter?” Remember, at the September meeting, the Fed cut its own forecast for 2017 rate hikes to 2, down from 3 previously. Some very smart people think there’s a decent chance the Fed is one and done due to recession risk. I won’t hazard any guesses. I’ll just remind you of the 2 simple truths of Fed days: 1) Those who know don’t tell and those who tell don’t know 2) The first reaction isn’t always the right one… and neither is the second The hawk hammer has the dollar moving higher again this morning, while SPX futures are slightly red. Yesterday, we had a nasty down day on a confluence of bad news (huge currency volatility, AA/DOV earnings, Samsung), and there was a clear risk-off flavor to the action. The Russell 2000 and biotech (IBB) took huge lumps, and the VIX popped pretty hard. I’d key off 4 things today: 1) Apple (AAPL) Apple’s gotten a nice boost from Samsung’s Note 7 recall, which eliminates one of iPhone 7’s main competitors. Apple does a lot of heavy lifting for the indices, so I’d watch to see if there is some belated profit-taking. 2) Oil Clearly, equities like strong oil. And WTI crude looks like it wants to take out the 2016 high at $51.67. A power move through there could mean good things for the bulls. 3) Hot New Issues ACIA, TWLO, TTD, ACIU, PI, etc. are the new F.A.N.G. These names are not looking healthy. It would be a clear plus if they regained traction. 4) The Usual Risk On/Off Suspects As I said, the Russell and biotech got spanked pretty hard yesterday. I’d closely watch them, along with HYG. And remember… The Fed Minutes release means it’s an anything goes day. Good luck out there. P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Doug Robertson’s special options training session!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: The Anatomy of a Turnaround Tuesday
In today’s Morning Call Express, Rob Smith looks back at what happen yesterday and how it has changed the charts. He also looks at various individual names and sectors to provide additional color into the selloff we saw on Tuesday.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: AAPL Picking
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about how to navigate the current range and what levels to be looking at to trade around or, if nothing else, be aware of them. He also talks about AAPL, his recent trade in it, and where to look for it move heading forward. Scott also looks at some individual names.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Elections & Markets For Debate
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler covers the current range in the market, ahead of earnings season, and the levels to be looking at for clues. He also looks at a couple sectors, banks, high beta tech, and a few new issues.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Post-Debate Happiness
The Mexican peso is up 1.7% this morning, which means Mr. Market thinks Hillary Clinton won last night’s steel cage match US Presidental debate. Meanwhile, the pound sterling is still falling in the wake of Friday’s flash crash. Crude oil is rising after Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said crude could hit $60 by year-end. OPEC recently announced a production cut, though market participants would certainly like more detail. European equities are up for the first time in 4 days on strength in automakers, throuhg banks are still looking weak. Deutsche Bank (DB) failed to announce a deal with the Department of Justice as some traders expected. China resumed trading after a week-long holiday, and the yuan dropped to a fresh 6-year low. Goldman Sachs says that US and European markets could stumble a bit into year-end due to political risks, a weak economy in Europe, and high stock prices in the US. The US dollar is still in bull market mode despite Friday’s slightly soft jobs report. Traders are pricing in a 64% probability of a December rate hike, though keep in mind, the pace thereafter what matters. According to some very smart folks I’ve spoken with, there’s an excellent chance the Fed is one and done. However, gold is catching a bid today, so I’d watch for a pop in the beaten down gold miners (GDX). Apple (AAPL) is up fractionally this morning on news reports that Samsung temporarily stopped production of its Galaxy Note 7 smartphone. The device was already recalled, but even replacement models are catching fire, which is a PR disaster. SPX futures are up about 11 handles this morning, so we’re starting the week off on a positive note. Biotech is catching a bid this morning — it’s been lagging to see if the weak trend breaks.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Biggest Mover of the Week, Gold
In today’s Morning Call Express, Jeff Cooper talks about the big move in gold this week. He highlights some of the key levels that he is focused on based on Gann methodology and the sqaure of 9 wheel.
Continue Reading -->Weekly Sentiment Report: Traders Are Pretty Darn Neutral
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side ever provides evidence for their views. So I regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 6 sentiment measures I track, traders appear to be shockingly… neutral. Seriously, when I mash all the data together, I get a crowd that looks split right down the middle between bulls and bears. 1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish SPX options prices show a high put skew. I looked at 10% out of the money 6 month SPX options. There is currently a 9.6 point skew in implied volatilities on the options. That’s the 88th percentile. So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 88% of the time over the past 5 years. 2) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 28.8% of individual investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 38.5%, and below the 2016 YTD average of 28.1%. Bearish sentiment is at 27.9%,down huge from last week, and slightly lower than the 30.3% long-term average. 3) Wall Street Strategists – Neutral The average year-end target price for the S&P 500 is 2171, according to Bloomberg. That implies a 1% gain into year-end. 4) ISE Sentiment – Neutral The ISE Sentiment Index closed at 130 yesterday (130 calls for every 100 puts). This is a bullish reading And its 10 day moving average is just 94 — a level that typically indicates modest bearishness. So we’ll call it neutral. 5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.66 yesterday, which is just below the YTD average of 0.58. This points to slightly bullish sentiment. 6) Investors Intelligence – Bullish Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers showed a slight increase in bullishness to 46.7%. This is high relative to long-term averages. Bears fell to a 3-week low to 22.8%. ********* So we have 2 bearish indicators, 2 neutral indicators, and 2 bullish indicators. Blend them together and you have a crowd that looks pretty darn neutral. I’m hearing a lot of bears say that everyone’s complacent… but who are they talking about?
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Jobs Report Ahead
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews the action in the market ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. Scot talso looks at high beta tech names along with a couple sectors and one or two new issues.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Taper Talk
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews the Gold Miners (GDX) as that is where the action was yesterday. He also takes a quick look at the SPX but not much has changed from day to day. Scott also looks at a couple individual names.
Continue Reading -->Panic Hits Gold, and It’s Not Pretty
Yesterday, I talked about the seemingly key $125-ish level on GLD. I wish I had the guts to get in short because this morning, GLD has slammed straight through $125 all the way to $121.86. The ever-volatile gold miners (GDX) and junior miners (GDXJ) are dropping -7.5% and -8.4%, respectively. This has a whiff of panic selling. Earlier today, the Fed’s Lacker and Mester swung their mighty hawk hammers, which has traders chattering about coming rate hikes. And of course, we have the big September NFP report on Friday, which comes on the heels of a decent rebound in US economic data. Interestingly, gold is gapping down towards its interim bottom on June 24. That of course was the date of the big Brexit surprise, featuring a monumental gap up in gold: Gold options are also very active today. GLD puts are trading at 7.4 times the normal volume for this time of day, according to Thinkorswim. However, there appears to be some dip buyers poking around GDX, since call options are actually quite active in that ETF. Precious metals have had a huge year. Even with today’s dip, GLD is still up 20.8% year-to-date and GDX is up 74.3%. So I guess it makes sense that traders are rushing to lock in profits — or get short — ahead of the big jobs report Friday. A huge beat could mean more downside, but either way, I think gold is officially the market’s funnest battleground.
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