Morning Call Express: Jobs Report Ahead
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews the action in the market ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. Scot talso looks at high beta tech names along with a couple sectors and one or two new issues.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Taper Talk
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews the Gold Miners (GDX) as that is where the action was yesterday. He also takes a quick look at the SPX but not much has changed from day to day. Scott also looks at a couple individual names.
Continue Reading -->Panic Hits Gold, and It’s Not Pretty
Yesterday, I talked about the seemingly key $125-ish level on GLD. I wish I had the guts to get in short because this morning, GLD has slammed straight through $125 all the way to $121.86. The ever-volatile gold miners (GDX) and junior miners (GDXJ) are dropping -7.5% and -8.4%, respectively. This has a whiff of panic selling. Earlier today, the Fed’s Lacker and Mester swung their mighty hawk hammers, which has traders chattering about coming rate hikes. And of course, we have the big September NFP report on Friday, which comes on the heels of a decent rebound in US economic data. Interestingly, gold is gapping down towards its interim bottom on June 24. That of course was the date of the big Brexit surprise, featuring a monumental gap up in gold: Gold options are also very active today. GLD puts are trading at 7.4 times the normal volume for this time of day, according to Thinkorswim. However, there appears to be some dip buyers poking around GDX, since call options are actually quite active in that ETF. Precious metals have had a huge year. Even with today’s dip, GLD is still up 20.8% year-to-date and GDX is up 74.3%. So I guess it makes sense that traders are rushing to lock in profits — or get short — ahead of the big jobs report Friday. A huge beat could mean more downside, but either way, I think gold is officially the market’s funnest battleground.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Taxing Times
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about yesterday’s action and, once again, reviews the SPX and some of the scenarios that he is looking for as we start the final quarter of the year. He also talks about some of the action in individual names like TSLA, NFLX, AAPL, and some new issue names.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Bad News Banks Beat Merger Mania!
Want to Learn to Trade With Our Experts? Check Out These 2 FREE Events: Start Prop Trading the Right Way How to Generate Big Income With Options 1) M&A Fever Today was a good day for Wall Street dealmakers as 2 sizeable deals were announced, with another Twitter (TWTR) takeover rumor serving as the icing on top. Privately-held outdoors retailer Bass Prop Shops is buying Cabela’s (CAB) for $5.5 billion. The combined company will have nearly 200 stores in the United States. Legendary bond investor Bill Gross also has a new employer, as his company Janus Capital (JNS) will be acquired by UK-based asset manager Henderson Group Plc. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Google (GOOGL) may be kicking the tires on Twitter (TWTR) regarding a possible link-up. In recent weeks, Twitter shares have skyrocketed on reports that it could be acquired by companies including Salesforce.com (CRM), Microsoft (MSFT), and even Disney (DIS). Twitter shares rose 4.0% to $23.97 today. 2) US Stocks Pull Back The S&P 500 pulled back -0.3% as the banking industry came under fire again. European banks fell today after Deutsche Bank (DB) failed to announced a smaller settlement with the Department of Justice, which handed the bank a $14 billion tab over its mortgage backed securities practices. Well Fargo (WFC) continued its downtrend on a pile of negative news, including a loss of business with the state of Illinois. Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton also attacked the bank in a speech in Toledo, Ohio. Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin accused a Morgan Stanley (MS) unit of “dishonest and unethical conduct” in in state dealings. The S&P Financial ETF (XLF) fell -0.5% today. Gold miners, utilities, and real estate stocks all fell on stronger-than-expected US economic data, which pushed up the dollar and interest rates. The Nasdaq slightly outperformed today as select names like Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) staged strong rallies. 3) Rule of 4 Sell Signal? This afternoon, my good friend Jeff Cooper once again keyed on the widely-watched 2148 level in the SPX. Here’s what he had to say: The Daily Swing Chart has turned right back down as the SPX trades below Friday’s low this morning. There is a 3 point rising trend line on the hourlies that now ties to around the key 2148 level. So if this is breached, it will trigger an hourly Rule of 4 sell from September’s pennant to kick off October, a potentially poor harbinger for the what is often a wicked month. Tuesday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:05 Fed’s Lacker Speaks at West Virginia Economic Outlook Meeting 09:45 ISM New York (Sep): prior 47.5 19:50 Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Auckland, NZ Global Economics 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 04:30 GBP Construction PMI 20:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m Earnings Before Open: Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) After Close: None of significance
Continue Reading -->Is Gold About to Get Cracked?
1) US Economic Data Comeback US economic data continues to firm up following a major drop in momentum since July. In the past week, we’ve seen decent new home sales, Markit Services PMI, durable goods, Chicago PMI, GDP, jobless claims, and ISM Manufacturing numbers. Check out this chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index — this could be the start of a new trend following a collapse in expectations: Some reports have been some clunkers, but overall, the strength of data relative to expectations is improving into Friday’s big NFP report. However… 2) Traders Aren’t Sold on the Fed Just Yet A lot of traders believe a December rate hike is a foregone conclusion. The numbers say otherwise. Fed funds futures imply a 61% probability of a December rate increase, so the market’s not buying in whole-hog. This brings us back to this week’s NFP report, which could move the numbers one way or the other. I’d especially be watching… 3) Gold! Call me crazy, but doesn’t this Gold (GLD) $125ish level look pivotal? Gold has been making lower highs, and I’d assume that a big NFP report on Friday could mean a very ugly break of this $125ish support level. There’s been a lot of talk about a possible head & shoulders forming over the past few weeks, but this bigger-picture pattern looks more important. 4) Is Twitter Still in Play? Today, Bloomberg reported that Google (GOOGL) is considering a bid for Twitter (TWTR). Google has perennially been seen as a logical buyer for Twitter because of the latter’s strength in real-time search. But the real good news for Twitter longs is the sheer number of rumored suitors floating around — Salesforce.com (CRM), Disney (DIS), and Microsoft (MSFT) have also been mentioned. This way, if one alleged suitor leaves the picture, we’ve still got others to prevent an all-out collapse. But I’ll still only believe this deal when I see it. Mark your calendars for Twitter’s Q3 earnings report on October 25 — it’s gonna be a big one! 5) A Boom in Call Options? The ISE Sentiment Index, which is my favorite short-term sentiment indicator, is reading 189 this morning as of 10:50 a.m. ET. That’s 189 calls for every 100 puts, which means rampant bullishness, at least on an intra-day basis. Perhaps ironically, we are seeing lots of activity in GLD. NFLX, TSLA, BMY, and CAB are also active. (TSLA announced strong sales, CAB is being taken over)
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express: Fourth Quarter, Fresh Start
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the tightening range in the SPX and what levels to be watching as we head into a new month and fourth quarter. He also looks at the XLE in light of OPEC as well as individual names like AMZN, FB and some new issues.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: A Closer Look, Dow Jones Industrial
In today’s Morning Call Express, Jeff Cooper talks about the potential head and shoulders top on the Dow Jones Industrial and the action seen yesterday. If support is broken, a test of the 200 day moving average is on the table. He also talks about the Gann connects which are in play.
Continue Reading -->Catch Scott Redler’s Interview With Futures Radio!
T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler was recently interviewed by Futures Radio, and we encourage you to click over to listen! In this in-depth interview, Scott discusses: How he got started in trading in the 1990’s Technical analysis techniques he uses every day Current market issues like Deutsche Bank, the US Presidential election, and more! Click here to listen to the interview!
Continue Reading -->Weekly Sentiment Update: Traders Are Surprisingly Bearish
Want to Earn Serious Income With Options? Then click here to check out Doug Robertson’s special live trading event! Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side provides evidence for their views. So I like regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 7 sentiment measures I track, traders appear to be modestly bearish, even though the S&P 500 is still within a stone’s throw of the 2193 all-time high. 1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish SPX options prices show a high put skew. I looked at 10% out of the money 6 month SPX options. There is currently a 9.8 point skew in implied volatilities on the options. That’s the 94th percentile. So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 94% of the time over the past 5 years. 2) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index closed at 81 yesterday (81 puts for every 100 calls). And its 10 day moving average is just 78 — a level that indicates bearishness. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 24.0% of individual investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 38.4%, and below the 2016 YTD average of 28.1%. Bearish sentiment is at 37.1%, down a bit from last week, but well above the 30.3% long-term average. 4) Wall Street Strategists – Neutral The average year-end target price for the S&P 500 is 2169, according to Bloomberg. That implies the market does nothing into year-end. 5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.66 yesterday, which is just below the YTD average of 0.69. This points to neutral sentiment. 6) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is at 50. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral perfectly neutral. 7) Investors Intelligence – Bullish Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers showed a slightly increase in bullishness to 45.2%, snapping a 4-week losing streak.Those calling for correction are at 31.7%, the highest since June 29. ********* So we have 3 bearish indicators, 3 neutral indicators, and 1 bullish indicator. Blend them together and you have a moderately bearish crowd. I’m hearing a lot of bears say that everyone’s complacent… but who are they talking about? P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Doug Robertson’s FREE options event!
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