Scott Redler: Low Expectations for Google Pay Off Big Time!
On Wednesday morning, I told Redler All-Access readers that I was looking at picking up GOOGL calls for earnings after it dropped on the DoJ News: GOOGL is lower on the DoJ news. It reports Thursday after the close. It might be worth a look long if it can hold the $1130-$1132 area. I may pick up calls for earnings, but we’ll see. at 9:39 a.m. ET, I Tweeted to my Redler All-Access readers that I indeed got long $1,130 calls. On Thursday morning, I followed up with this message in my RAA Morning Note:: GOOGL: I bought $1130 calls while it was down yesterday. Expectations are very low. It needs to get and stay above $1160, and $1200 wouldn’t be out of the question, assuming the report is better than expected.And Thursday after the close, GOOGL did indeed deliver, sending the stock up huge today. The options closed at $31.50 yesterday, and opened at $100.88. In actual dollar terms, that’s a gain of $6,938 per lot overnight. Here’s the chart of the options:I sold my calls right after the open today, when GOOGL was around $1,230ish. I was a little early, because GOOGL got as high as $1,268.39 to fill a big gap! But, I’ll take what I got. The lessons here are simple: 1) I only take options into earnings because my risk is defined. Yes, the risk can be high but I manage it through my position sizing, and I’m willing to live with the consequences. 2) Sometimes, a negative news event can be a gift. Expectations for GOOGL were already low, and the DoJ news took them even lower. So what’s next for GOOGL? As you can see on the chart below, there’s still a long-term channel building.There might be an opportunity to buy the stock soon, but I’ll wait to see where gap support ends up. P.S. Want my complete guide to moving averages? Click here to check it out! Positions Disclosure: As of July 26, 2019 at 10:10 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long SYMC, TWTR, AMD, ETSY, LK, BAC, AMRN calls, UBER calls, GWPH calls, GLD calls, DIS calls, AMZN calls; is short NFLX, GLD calls, DIS calls
Continue Reading -->Take Your Swing Trades to the Finish Line
Sami’s last lesson gave you a behind the scenes look at the tools that help him streamline his scanning process. Today, he’s reviewing his method for scanning the charts as effectively as possible. Remember: once you learn how, you’ll have to practice to get fast. Maybe one day you’ll pass Sami’s 3 chart per second average! But, once you flag your potential plays, what do you do with them? Today’s lesson breaks down how to take your swing trade all the way to the finish line. Sami’s strategy uses the dailies and hourlies together to pinpoint an ideal entry point. Every potential play gets this treatment, and the ones that make the cut get onto the favorites list. If that sounds simple… that’s because it is. Once you know the rules, mastering the game is a piece of cake. Learn Sami’s lesson today:
Continue Reading -->The Ultimate Guide to Moving Averages: Trend Analysis the Pro’s Way
Moving averages have been a mainstay in my toolkit since I began my professional trading career in 1999.Moving averages help me determine:How aggressive to be with my portfolioWhich stocks I want to be long or shortJust how strong the current market trend isWhat news matters, and what doesn’tIn terms of importance, I rate moving averages above news, economic data, earnings, and just about any indicator you can think of.If I was a beginning trader looking to build my net worth, moving averages would be my #1 focus.And through a series of helpful case studies, you’re about to learn:What a moving average IsHow moving averages are calculatedThe specific moving averages I use, and how I interpret themThe biggest myth of moving averages Editor’s Note: If you’d like a downloadable and printable PDF version of this article, please check out The Ultimate Guide to Moving Averages. Click here to learn more ==> What Is a Moving Average? How Are They Calculated?Let’s talk about how a moving average is calculated.A moving average is a stock’s average price over a certain time period.We’re going to focus on the daily time frame this article. A daily moving average is the average of a stock’s daily closing prices over a specified number of days.(a weekly moving average would be the average of a stock’s weekly closing prices over a specified number of weeks)For example, the 50 day moving average is a stock’s average closing price for the last 50 days.Every day, the newest closing price in the moving average replaces the oldest, which is why we call it ‘moving’ — a moving average change every day.Here’s a simple chart of Apple (AAPL) with its 50 day moving average. The Biggest Myth About Moving AveragesYou may hear people say things like “moving averages don’t work” or “everyone sees the same moving averages, so they have no value”But here’s the reality: most serious technician understand that a moving average is not the same as a trading strategy or even signal. I don’t buy and sell purely because of a moving average.But moving averages do help me make decisions. They’re one piece of the puzzle.That’s why they’re so valuable to me.Simple vs. Exponential Moving AveragesThere are 2 types of moving averages — simple and exponential. They are calculated in slightly different ways. A simple moving average is a straight average of the stock price. An exponential moving average gives recent prices a bigger weight, so it does a better job of measuring recent momentum. Here’s Nvidia (NVDA) with its 50 day simple (blue) and exponential (pink) moving averages.You can see they’re pretty close, but the exponential (pink) is a bit closer to the current price.The Moving Averages I UseTraditionally, technicians and traders have focused on the 10, 20, 50, and 200 day simple moving averages.You can think of them in these terms:10 day simple moving average: very short-term trend20 day simple moving average: short term trend50 day simple moving average: intermediate trend200 day simple moving average: long-term trendI use a slightly different set of moving averages in my own trading, and in Redler All-Access.8 day exponential moving average: very short-term trend21 day exponential moving average: short term trend50 day exponential moving average: intermediate trend200 exponential moving average: long-term trend(I matched the colors on the names with their colors in the charts below.)I use exponential moving averages because they are more sensitive to the recent action, and give me a slightly better read on the near-term trend.Going forward in this article, all moving averages are exponential.Is There a REALLY Difference Between an 8 and 10 Day Moving Average?You may be asking “why the 8 day? Why not the 10 day?”In most cases, they’re not terribly different, as you can see on this SPY chart:But here’s what most people miss about moving averages: It’s not the exact moving averages you use that counts.What matters is how well you use those moving averages to help you manage risk.As I’ll soon discuss, I pay most attention to the 8 and 21 day exponential moving averages. I stick with those because my brain is trained to judge the action based on those time frames.If I was using, say, the 10 and 20 day simple moving averages, I’d probably end up with the same results — I’d just get there in a slightly different way.The Power of the 8 & 21 Day Moving AveragesTraders often ask me why I talk about the 8 & 21 day exponential moving averages so much. Whether you see me on CNBC, Twitter, or the Virtual Trading Floor®, odds are you’ll hear me me talking about them.Stocks that are in uptrends find support at the 8/21/50day. Stocks in downtrends get rejected at them on Bounces. Below the 200day is real selling. Rules to live by— Scott Redler (@RedDogT3) November 14, 2018 It’s because these moving averages are the most accurate short-term road map I’ve found.And I value moving average more than any other analysis I see out there.8 & 21 Day Moving Average Case Study I: The ‘Overvalued’ Beyond Meat (BYD)In mid-2019, Beyond Meat (BYND) was one of the hottest stocks in the market, and we focused on it heavily in Redler All-Access.This stock was very controversial, and I bet you saw plenty of headlines like this:But let’s look at the chart.What were the 8 & 21 day moving averages telling us?They were telling us the trend was strong. As you can see, it never even touched the 21 day! And most of the time, it was above the 8 day. This is a perfect example of a powerful trend. Even if you’re not long a stock like this, resist the urge to short because you think it went too far. Because if a stock goes from $46 to $200 while staying above the 8 & 21 day moving averages, there’s no telling how high it can go. A stock you think is overvalued can easily become more overvalued. So I never, ever short a stock that shows momentum above the 8 & 21 day moving averages. NEVER short a stock that shows momentum above the 8 & 21 day moving averages
Continue Reading -->Bitcoin: When to Buy Again, and Why
Want to trade Bitcoin? Sami Abusaad’s here with his Bitcoin game plan for this week. Last week, Sami said Bitcoin could pull back before shooting up hard. But Bitcoin was stronger than expected, which shows you just how bullish Bitcoin is right now. Traders just keep buying at support. So with Bitcoin back at $11,000, what do you do now? Sami lays out three scenarios for trading Bitcoin. Two of them are plausible. And one is not. But Sami is perfectly fine with any of them playing out. See the specific price levels for each of the three scenarios, and where Sami wants to take action.
Continue Reading -->How to Swing Trade a Tired Market
Microsoft (MSFT) gapped up Friday before selling off hard. This doesn’t mean Microsoft is a mess. But it does mean the market is tired. See how that’s playing into Sami’s swing trading strategy this week: It’s time to take things day to day, unless Friday’s bar gets negated quickly. And with so many companies reporting earnings this week, things will get even more confusing. Sami then takes you through the names on his swing trading watch list, including ABT, AMRX, DF, LK, SIG, BCRX, EBAY, PINS, and TTMI. P.S. Click here to check out Sami’s latest Bitcoin update
Continue Reading -->How to Scan 1,400 Names in Under 45 Minutes
Sami’s focus today is to teach you to scan for swing trades as efficiently as possible.But first, he takes a look back at the main patterns you’ll be scanning for. Hint: every single pattern he’s going to show you falls into these categories, so you’ll want to make sure you understand what you’re looking for. If you need a refresher on breakouts and pullbacks, now’s the time to catch up. This lesson kicks off with a behind-the-scenes look at the tools that let Sami streamline his scanning process. Free platforms get the job done, but he sees investing a little pocket change per month in a more advanced system as one of the key components of his success. He’s averaging 3 charts per second, and so could you with the right tools. If you’re short on time, this could mean a big boost in your productivity. That’s how he rips through 1,400 tickers in under 45 minutes – don’t blink or you’ll miss a potential winner. But, that’s just the start of it, One you can master that, your success depends on sorting and prioritizing. Sami helps you understand what you’re looking for in the charts, plus how each timeframe plays into your overall strategy.Don’t miss this gamechanger: P.S. Earnings Season is still going strong. Be sure to check out this FREE Earnings Season resource: The Ultimate Guide to Trading Earnings Season
Continue Reading -->A Look Into the Future With Sami Abusaad
Sami gives you a look into his top trade ideas for the upcoming week. A lot of them have potential, but he’s only planning to take a few. You’ll want to watch if you’re going to put your money on the line this week. And, if crypto is more your speed, he’s got a separate video for you. Check in to get Sami’s upcoming trades now:
Continue Reading -->Are You Ready for the Crypto Grand Slam?
Sami Abusaad kicks off the week with a fresh update on Bitcoin. In last week’s video, Sami forecasted a W pattern in the charts, which could have meant a win for your P&L if you traded it right. Sami invested heavily … and the play worked spectacularly, exceeding even his expectations. So where’s it going next? There’s a short opportunity on the table with a pullback on the horizon, but the big long play is what you really need to look out for. Sami has a giant prediction on when it’s coming and how high it will fly. If this goes as he sees it, he’s in for a grand slam. Are you ready to strike when it’s time? Tune in to see exactly how bullish you should be when Bitcoin serves you this monster trade.
Continue Reading -->7 Reasons to Join Sami Abusaad’s Earnings Engine This July
Ever wonder how some traders catch big earnings moves you never even saw coming?Does it seem like they are operating at a higher level? Well, they are. But, you could, too.Try Sami Abusaad’s Earnings Engine course — his master plan for predicting post-earnings moves like a pro. Catch the webinar replay, then scroll down to learn more about this one-of-a-kind education program. Click to Sign Up If you’re not convinced yet… here’s 7 reasons to think about it:7) Sami Spent 7 Years Perfecting This Strategy So You Don’t Have To That’s thousands of hours spent developing his Earnings Plays before trading them. Why did it take so long? He was fine-tuning an action plan for each possible scenario to ensure predictable results.6) You’ll Be More Excited About Earnings Season Than You Could Possibly ImagineTrading is hard work, but it can be incredibly exciting… if you’re making money. Armed with Sami’s strategies, you’ll be ready to attack earning season with the confidence of a winner.5) You’ll Be Shocked At How Simple the Process Is (Especially the Trade Management)If you take Earnings Engine, trading earnings will become as easy as following a few super easy steps. Sami has helped countless students become outstanding traders… and now it’s your turn.4) Earning Season is Happening Right Now. So You Need the Edge NOW!Earning Season presents a huge opportunity for traders to capitalize on giant gaps – but only if they have a plan. Luckily, Sami has taken care of that for you. You’ll learn how to trade in six different scenarios just in time to get in on the earning season action. It’s only going to get crazier next week, and you’ll be ready for all the trades you can handle. . You can expect to generate 100-200 actionable ideas every earnings season – that’s 100-200 opportunities for you to take a profit using Sami’s strategies.3) You’ll Learn Exactly How a Stock’s Place in Its Market CycleThe perfect earnings trade does not happen in vacuum. You must understand where a stock is in its life cycle so you can be ready to strike at precisely the right moment.2) You’ll Get The Chance to Ask Sami All of Your QuestionsYou’ll learn Sami’s groundbreaking approach to predicting big post-earnings moves directly from the source… and you get to ask him whatever you’d like. This course is 100% interactive. 1) You Can Use These Strategies All Year LongIt’s true — most companies do report during earnings season. But there are companies reporting earnings almost every trading day. So you can actually use these strategies year-round!And you’re in on this unmissable opportunity for just $195!Sign up below to start trading like a winner this earning season. Click to Sign Up
Continue Reading -->Scan For Plays the Easy Way
Sami Abusaad’s latest lesson is aimed at making things a little easier for you. Knowing that stocks can correct through price and time, Sami has two patterns that he always looks for: buy setups and base breakouts. The last two lessons, which you can catch here and here if you need to catch up, were exclusively about base breakouts. Before that, he discussed pullbacks and how to play them with a look at entries, stops, and trade management. You’ll need to brush up on these if you want to be a top trade technician. But, when Sami is scanning the charts, what is he actually looking for? We already addressed the two primary patterns, but are there any more tips to make it easier? There sure are. Tune in to trade the easy way: P.S. Earnings Season is still going strong. Be sure to check out this FREE Earnings Season resource: The Ultimate Guide to Trading Earnings Season
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