Which Stocks Are Working in 2022? Not a lot…
2022 has been a crazy year for stocks. After 3 years of eye-popping gains, the S&P 500 is down 5% with major weakness in tech stocks and small caps. We’ve seen the collapse of the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) amid a larger crash in growth stocks. And earnings season has been total chaos with plenty of winners (SNAP, AMZN) and losers (FB, SPOT). We even had “Ugly Chart Time” on January 21. But let’s shift our tone and ask a more optimistic question: what has been working in 2022? The answer overall is… energy, banks… and not much else. The Energy Stock Craze Is Real In April 2020, oil prices went negative when demand collapsed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Fast forward to February 2022, and oil is above $90 at 8-year highs. So as you might expect, energy stocks are BOOMING. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) fund is up 27% in 2022 after a 46% run in 2021. OIH is also doing well, up about 25%. What else is working? Banks Are Doing Okay With the rising rate environment, banks are up in 2022, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) rising about 4%: But like everything aside from energy, XLF is off the highs and peaked back in January. And outside of energy and banks, there are very few stocks up in 2022, period. We just saw big post-earnings pops in Amazon (AMZN), Snap (SNAP), and Pinterest (PINS)… but they are all down YTD. And what’s not working in 2022? While the embattled ARKK recently came off the lows, it’s still down 23% year-to-date. Time will tell if the Jim Cramer “drowning” incident on January 27 marked a long-term bottom: I’ve disagreed with most of Cathie’s investment theses since last year (been in $SARK since its inception), but this is just brutal after today’s price action… @jimcramer $ARKK $TSLA $COIN $HOOD pic.twitter.com/oJ3YynrGfP — sᴇɴᴛɪɴᴇʟ 🎲 (@KryptoSentinel) January 27, 2022 Small caps remain a sore spot, with IWM down 11% YTD, more than double the SPX’ loss: Social media has been in rough shape, with Meta Platforms (FB) down 30% YTD after its weak earnings report: Meme stocks are also feeling the pain, with AMC (AMC) down a crazy 42% YTD. The cannabis sector had a horrible 2021 and things aren’t looking much better this year, with MSOS off 14% so far: But overall, traders appear to have destressed a bit, because the VIX is well off the highs: The Big Picture: Derisking The big picture in 2022 remains the same: traders fear rish. Yes, we are off the lows and sentiment has improved, but traders are looking for confirmation that the recent bounce can extend. Where can that confirmation come from? Growth stocks picking up (ARKK is the easy way to watch them) Small caps and tech showing relative outperformance Traders buying the dip in risky sectors like biotech and cannabis)
Continue Reading -->The Top 11 Economic Indicators Traders Need to Know
Traders are obsessed with economic indicators and data. Why? Because economic numbers move stock prices, commodities prices, options prices, interest rates, and just about everything else you can think of. So it’s a good thing the government is always giving us a fix! But which ones should you pay most attention to as a trader? Here’s a breakdown of the top 11 indicators that traders like you need to know about. 11. Homebuilder Sentiment From the National Association of Homebuilders Released at 8:30 a.m. ET in the third week of the month Measures builder confidence about current and future market conditions To judge Homebuilder Sentiment, The National Association of Homebuilders conducts a monthly survey of its members in partnership with Wells Fargo. The survey asks NAHB members to rate market conditions based on their personal experience. The questions are centered around the current state of the market, conditions 6 months from now, and the traffic of prospective buyers. Builders are asked to rank current and future sales conditions as “good”, “fair”, or “poor”. Prospective buyers are rated as “high to very high”, “average”, or “low to very low”. NAHB seasonally adjusted the number of responses in each category, “Good/High” or “Poor/Low” They then use this formula: (Good/High – Poor/Low + 100), to calculate the monthly index on a scale from 0 to 100. If every response was Good/High then the index will be 100. If all responses were Poor/Low it would be 0. Readings above 50 are considered positive. This index is a leading indicator for future home construction, since it is based on future expectations. The market uses this report to gauge how builders themselves are feeling about their future. NAHB has conducted the monthly survey since January 1985. 10. New Home Sales, Starts & Building Permits From the U.S. Census Bureau Housing Starts and Building Permits report released on the 12th workday of the month at 8:30 a.m. ET New Residential Sales report released on the 17th workday of the month at 10:00 a.m. ET Measures pace of new home construction and sales of newly built homes Housing starts measure how many new homes builders broke ground on each month. It’s a lagging indicator because it measures past activity. Building permits measure how many new permits were approved to build homes in the months ahead, making it a leading indicator. The numbers are reported together by the Census Bureau to measure the health of new home construction. Housing starts and permits include both single-family homes and multi-family buildings. The Census Bureau also reports new residential sales each month. This is a measure of how many newly constructed homes were sold the previous month and is a lagging indicator. The report includes sales data on both single-family homes and multi-family units. The data is reported at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in order to avoid large swings based on season. The new residential sales report includes data on supply (how many units were for sale at the end of the month) as well as prices. It also breaks down new homes by construction status: not started, under construction, or complete. This group of reports gives the stock market a measure of the overall health of the new home market. 9. Existing & Pending Home Sales From the National Association of Realtors Existing Sales report released in the 3rd week of the month at 8:30 a.m. ET Pending Sales report printed in the 4th week of the month at 8:30 a.m. ET Measure of existing home sales closed in the previous month and number of contracts signed to purchase a home The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales around the 20th of each month. This report measures the total number of closed sales in the previous month, making it a lagging indicator. Sales are reported at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, which means the numbers are smoothed out to eliminate the impact of seasonal changes. Home sales are typically faster in summer and slower in winter. The existing sales report also includes data on supply levels and home prices. NAR reports pending home sales in the week after existing sales. This report is a measurement of the number of contracts signed to purchase a home in the previous month. Pending Home Sales are a leading indicator for the housing market. This report typically impacts home building stocks directly. 8. Retail Sales From the U.S. Census Bureau Released mid-monthly at 8:30 a.m. Measure of consumer spending in the U.S. The retail sales report measures the total amount U.S. consumers spend on goods and services per month in 13 categories: Motor vehicle & parts dealers Furniture & home furnishing retailers Electronics and appliances Building materials and gardening Food and beverage stores Health & personal care Gasoline Clothing and accessories Sporting goods, hobby, musical instruments, book store General merchandise Miscellaneous retailers Nonstore retailers (online) Food services and drinking places (restaurants and bars) The monthly report includes a headline number, and retail sales excluding auto and gasoline sales. Auto and gas numbers are considered volatile because prices rise and fall more often than other categories. Each monthly report also includes revisions for the two months prior. Retail sales is a lagging indicator, reporting data from the previous month. The market will typically rise on a good retail sales report and fall with a bad one as it signals the strength of the consumer side of the economy. 7. GDP From the Bureau of Economic Analysis Released at 8:30 a.m. ET, typically on the last Thursday of the month Measures U.S. economic growth by quarter GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports GDP on a quarterly basis. The advanced estimate for each quarter is typically released on the last Thursday of the first month following the conclusion of the quarter. The first revision is then printed the following month and the final revision the month after that. So for the first calendar quarter ending in March, you
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Earnings Action in F.A.A.N.G. Stocks
The SPX hit a low of 4222 and held 4287 Friday, giving a relief rally. It feels like this can continue for a bit. But I think things would be hard if it sees the 4495-4505 area, with 4530-4569 above. If we get an oversold bounce it might form a right shoulder to complete a macro head & shoulders pattern, but we’ll measure it daily.AAPL responded well to earnings on Friday. Can money hide here and buy dips? We shall see. I’m long and will see if it can hold the $167 area to start a better active sequence. Below that, it gets sloppy. NFLX: Reed Hastings buying stock (after Ackman last week) has it trading better. It’s hard to chase. But if it holds the $295 area, it can test the earnings gap pivot up near $408. FB has earnings on Wednesday. I’m not doing an options strategy but it will be interesting. See if it holds today and goes green for a trade. $293 is the low. AMZN broke $3300 and hit a low of $2709. There is a defined lower pivot ahead of earnings Thursday. There’s room to $3125-$3150 before the report. GOOGL has earnings on Tuesday. It will be important for sentiment. I’m not playing it. Big resistance is at $2786ish.Positions Disclosure as of 1/31/2022 at 9:01 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Do You Still Hate the Market?
For the past two weeks, traders have hated the market. And they were right, because stocks dropped and the VIX hit a 13-month high. But with the market rallying off the January 24 SPX low at 4222, the mood has brightened a bit this week. SPX Bulls Coming Back to the Party Our survey has not had more bulls than bears since January 2, 20221. So we can say our community has been pretty accurate in terms of calling the action.Now, 59% of surveyed traders are bullish, which is just slightly below the long-term average of 63%. Bitcoin Sentiment Split Bitcoin has bounced a bit from the January 23 lows, when sentiment bottomed out at 34%. Now, the crowd is split 50-50 between bulls and bears. Apple Bulls Return After Earnings Apple (AAPL) delivered a monster earnings report after the close Thursday and the stock popped nicely. So the mood has gotten much more positive, with 67% of surveyed traders saying they are bullish for the next 30 days. Feeling About Tesla Perk Up Tesla (TSLA) is down almost 20% year-to-date, and that appears to be attracting some traders. 55% of surveyed traders are now bullish, up from just 32% two weeks ago. Gold Bulls Step Away Gold struggled last week, so sentiment on gold soured once again. Now just 53% of surveyed traders are bullish on gold. Traders Still Love Oil Oil has been the place to be in 2022, with XLE up 18.3% and OIH up 23.0%. What Happens Now? For two weeks, we asked the question “Does Negative Sentiment Mean We Are Bottoming Out?” For now, the answer is yes. Now with sentiment in more neutral territory, it will be interesting to see if the market can creep crawling higher.
Continue Reading -->The ARKK ETF Bloodbath: 7 Things You Need to Know
The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) was poster child for the post-Pandemic stock boom with its blistering 149% in 2021. Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest, became a bonafide rockstar in the industry, and some folks thought she could be the next Peter Lynch or Warren Buffett. In February 2020, Bloomberg called her “the best investor you’ve never heard of.” But ARKK has fallen on hard times as expensive growth stocks came back down to Earth. So let’s go through 7 things you need to know about the ARKK ETF. 1) ARKK Invests in “Disruptive Innovation” Few people will ever read the prospectus for an ETF — but we just did. So what is the ARKK ETF all about? ARKK specializes in what it calls “disruptive innovation.” In their words: The Adviser defines “disruptive innovation” as the introduction of a technologically enabled new product or service that potentially changes the way the world works. The Adviser believes that companies relevant to this theme are those that rely on or benefit from the development of new products or services, technological improvements and advancements in scientific research relating to the areas of genomics* (“Genomic Revolution Companies”); innovation in automation and manufacturing (“Automation Transformation Companies”), transportation, energy (“Energy Transformation Companies”), artificial intelligence (“Artificial Intelligence Companies”) and materials; the increased use of shared technology, infrastructure and services (“Next Generation Internet Companies”); and technologies that make financial services more efficient (“Fintech Innovation Companies”). In plain English, this means that ARKK invests in expensive, high-beta tech stocks. And according to the prospectus, ARKK has to invest at least 65% of its assets in companies that follow the “disruptive innovation” theme. This is why ARKK can’t just go to cash like an individual trader might. The fund was launched on October 30, 2014, and currently has $16.1 billion in assets. 2) ARKK Is in Some WILD Stocks You know an ETF is wild when the most stable stock in its top 10 holdings is Tesla (TSLA)! All of ARKK’s top 10 holdings are expensive, high-beta stocks that move really far, really fast: Tesla (TSLA) Zoom (ZM) Teledoc (TDOC) Roku (ROKU) Coinbase (COIN) Exact Sciences (EXAS) Unity Software (U) Spotify (SPOT) Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) Uipath (PATH) ARKK has a beta of 1.54, meaning for every 1% the S&P 500 moves, ARKK moves 1.54%. That means ARKK moves about 50% faster than the S&P. Unfortunately, since ARKK peaked, those fast moves have been mostly to the downside. 3) ARKK Was In the Right Stocks at the Right Time When COVID-19 hit in early 2020, people began spending way more time at home, particularly for work. That was bad for some sectors like airlines and restaurants. But it benefited some of ARKK’s biggest holdings like Zoom (ZM), Teledoc (TDOC), and Roku (ROKU), all companies which benefited from more people being at home. Plus, ARKK’s biggest holding was Tesla (TSLA), which had a monster 2020. . You can call it luck or skill — but Cathie Wood got in the right names at the right time. 4) The Right Names Became the Wrong Names This chart compares the S&P 500 (on top) with ARKK (on bottom). ARKK peaked at $160 on February 16, 2021… and then started sliding. That was 11 months before the S&P 500 topped out at on January 4, 2022. What happened? Why did ARKK flame out so much earlier? Simple — because as the economy reopened ,“stay at home” names like Zoom (ZM) and Teledoc (TDOC) began dropping. For example, Teledoc has falled 82% off its highs: Traders’ declining tolerance for risky stocks also seemed to be a factor. With the Fed pulling away the punchbowl to fight inflation, traders started shying away from the wild names. So small caps underperformed in 2021, as did the ultra high-valuation tech stocks Cathie Wood favored. New IPO names were also messy. For example, ARKK has been a repeated buyer of Robinhood (HOOD), which has been in a hideous downtrend since its post-IPO peak. Meanwhile, traders were shoveling cash into traditional tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Nvidia (NVDA). Plus, energy, housing, and financials were big outperformers in 2021. You don’t see those types of stocks in ARKK. And in 2022, energy is the only sector that’s shining. OIH is up 24.3% and XLE is up 19.4%, while the S&P 500 is down -9.8%. Meanwhile, ARKK is down 31%. And if we’re considering all-time highs, ARKK is -59.1% off its high, while the SPX is off 10.8%. 5) ARKK’s Long-Term Performance Is Still Pretty Amazing Even with ARKK’s underperformance in 2021 and 2022, the fund is a staggering long-term success According to Morningstar, ARKK has an 5-year average return of 28%, almost doubling its category average. In this chart, ARKK is the blue line, and you can see it’s still way above its category (red line): As of this article, Morningstar rates ARKK as 4 out of 5 stars, putting in the top 32.5% of funds relative to category peers. However, Morningstar ratings are backward looking so they’re not helpful in judging future performance. 6) People Are Waiting for Cathie Wood to Give Up If you follow social media chatter, particularly on Twitter, you’ll know that Cathie Wood has received a lot of criticism for her bold predictions, For example, she recently said Bitcoin could hit $1 million by $2020. Bitcoin would multiply in price 27 fold for that to happen. In late December, she said she expected her strategy to deliver a compound return of 40% over the next five years. That equates to a 460% return. And many traders are desperate to see Wood capitulate and turn bearish, the idea being that if she gives up, high-growth stocks wilh have bottomed. Interestingly, CNBC’s Jim Cramer “drowned” ARKK on his Mad Money show: I’ve disagreed with most of Cathie’s investment theses since last year (been in $SARK since its inception), but this is just brutal after today’s price action… @jimcramer $ARKK $TSLA $COIN $HOOD pic.twitter.com/oJ3YynrGfP —
Continue Reading -->Where is QQQ Going Next?
Last week Sami mentioned that support for QQQ would be at 350. At the start of this week, QQQ is already at support, but that doesn’t mean that it’s going to hold. Find out where he thinks the market is heading next and when it might get there. In this video, Sami explains: – What’s so difficult about Bitcoin – Why this week is harder to predict – Where to place targets for DOGZ – Which pattern can be found in GFI – How OVV compares to USO
Continue Reading -->Sami Abusaad on the Trading Nut Podcast
Want to get to know Sami Abusaad? Then watch his appearance on the Trading Nut Podcast: Sami goes over: The HUGE loss that drive him to get a real trading education How he got started in the industry What it really takes to succeed Why your personality matters HUGE when it comes to being profitable Where people go wrong in trading And MORE!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Sloppy Action in Semis
SPY has had four hard down days since breaking the accelerated trend around $460. That confirmed the Bearish tape after losing the 8/21 day up near $468. We’ll see if we can play some type of oversold bounce today. Let’s see if we reclaim Friday’s low of $437.95. Under there is a micro spot at $432 and then a more major one at $426.The semis got sloppy like most tech sectors. SOXL broke below the 8/21 day and strength was sold all week as it hit $45.81 yesterday. See if there’s a scalp long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low or if it reclaims the $43.42 pivot low from Friday. It’s broken like everything else. NVDA is purely a tactical trade as long as we are in this type of tape. It was rejected last week around $285 and then broke $271. Some did well short. It gave a red to green trade Friday and then rolled over. Maybe there’s an opportunity vs. a 5-15-30 minute low around the 200 day if we get a signal to buy. See if it reclaims Friday’s low at $232.66. AMD lost special status as it broke the 8/21 day around $144 and it has been for sale ever since then. It broke $125 to give clues of more selling in the semis. It gives some two way action like Friday long and short. Now, see if there’s a signal to buy for a red to green trade. The 200 day is right here. See if it reclaims Friday’s low of $118.39.Positions Disclosure as of 1/24/2022 at 8:54 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Traders Don’t Want Tesla. They Want Gold
Traders were very bearish last week — and they were right to be negative, because it was another lousy week for the market. In this week’s sentiment survey, the bearishness extended, and we’re at an interesting inflection point — traders are more bullish on gold than on any other asset, including Tesla (TSLA). SPX Bulls Still Hard to Find The S&P 500 is down 8% year-to-date, with major relatives weakness in high-growth stocks. So it’s no surprise traders are bearish, with just 37% of survey respondents bullish on the market for the next 30 days. Bitcoin Sentiment Drops BIG Just 34% of surveyed traders are bullish on Bitcoin, which is no surprise given Bitcoin’s big drop on Saturday. Bitcoin is now down almost 30% year-to-date as risk assets remain out of favor. Apple Sentiment Still Bearish Apple (AAPL) sentiment rebounded from last week’s record low of 37%, but only slightly. Tesla Perks Up, But It’s Still Unloved Tesla (TSLA) also perked up a bit from last week, but not by much. Gold Bulls Are here 71% of survey respondents said they are bullish on gold, making it the most favored asset in this week’s survey. Oil Sentiment Flattish Oil prices and energy stocks have been ripping in 2022, so it’s no surprise traders still like oil. The Big Question, Again: Does Negative Sentiment Mean We Are Bottoming Out? Last week, we asked “Does Negative Sentiment Mean We Are Bottoming Out?” Because the market has a tendency to turn up just when people. And right now, traders clearly favor commodities over risky stocks. For now, traders remain fearful, with SPX futures in the red. But if you’re looking for guidance in this tough market, you can check out this special Sami Abusaad deal.
Continue Reading -->Markets in Turmoil? It’s Ugly Chart Time!
The S&P 500 is down -7.7% so far in 2022, but market participants agree — this is one of the toughest markets in some time. First, let’s get meta. Our last “Markets in Turmoil” article was released on Saturday, December 4, 2021 — the day after the December 3 low in the S&P 500. Since we perfectly bottom-ticked that move, we’re curious to see if the market skyrockets Monday. But for now, things are looking quite shaky with the S&P closing below the 200 day moving average for the first time since June 26, 2020. Interestingly enough, the T3 Live community nailed the downturn. In last weekend’s sentiment survey, just 33% of traders were bullish on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days — a huge decrease from the past few weeks:The Growth Stock EffectCathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) was an absolute monster during the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. ARKK was up over 150% in 2020…. but things have certainly gone South, as you can see on the chart: ARKK is now down -24.4% year-to-date and is -55.2% below that $160 high from back in February 2021.With the Fed taking away the punch bowl as rates rise, growth stocks have been torn apart. One prime example is major ARKK holding Robinhood (HOOD), which is down 85% from its post-IPO high of $85: We are also seeing big time weakness in Biotech (IBB): Semiconductors (SMH) were a MASSIVE source of leadership in 2021, rising +41%. But SMH is down -12% in 2022.VIX Approaching December Highs The VIX is up, but even with the growth stock meltdown, it is not quite at the December highs. What does this mean in plain English? Well, the VIX uses prices of various S&P 500 options to measure traders’ expectations of volatility. So traders are showing some fear, but not as much as in early December. Helpful Link: Our Primer on the VIXThe Bitcoin Beatdown Bitcoin is now down -23.8% year-to-date as traders continue to shed risk. No surprise there — and it will be interesting to see if Bitcoin buyers step up to buy the dip. Meanwhile, Ethereum is in even worse shape with a -36.8% YTD drop:Housing Stocks Busted UpFew traders follow housing stocks — but they’ve been a big source of action for the past couple of years. With interest rates spiking, the ITB ETF is now down -16.5% in 2022 after a blistering +48.6% run in 2021.The Ultimate Push PullThe market has two opposing forces at work: Downward Momentum: risk assets are cratering Negative Sentiment: traders are VERY bearish, which typically happens near bottoms, not tops. So the question now is, have we reached the point of maximum fear? Is higher inflation, the supply chain crunch, and a less accommodative Fed all priced in? Let us know in the comments, or by joining the T3 Sentiment Survey Panel!
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