Coffee With Greta: Futures Bounce on Russia-Ukraine Optimism
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: +286 (+0.9%) SPX Futures: +43 (+1.1%) NASDAQ Futures: +181 (+1.3%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher amid optimism about talks between Russia and Ukraine. Let’s get right to it! Russia-Ukraine Talks Make Progress Russian President Vladimir Putin says ongoing talks between his country and Ukraine are making progress. Meeting with the Belarusian President he said, “There are some positive shifts there, as I have been told by our delegation.” Those talks are reportedly taking place daily. But Russian forces are still advancing further into Ukraine. New satellite images appear to show a Russian convoy moving into towns and forests outside of the capital Kyiv, in an apparent renewed push into the city. The U.S. is set to revoke Russia’s status as a “most-favored nation” for trade. That status exempts a country from tariffs and changing it allows Congress to impose tariffs on all goods from Russia. Goldman Sachs Downgrades GDP Forecast Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts slashed their 2022 GDP forecast for the U.S. The group now expects growth of 1.75%, down from the previous 2% and lower than consensus estimates for 2.75%. Goldman cited rising inflation and higher energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine for that downgrade. The group also said recession risks are rising. Goldman says the chances of a recession next year are now between 20% to 35%. Goldman, JPMorgan Chase Leave Russia JPMorgan Chase (JPM) joined Goldman Sachs (GS) in pulling its business out of Russia Thursday. The investment banking giants said they are working in compliance with regulators to wind down operations in the country following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A JPMorgan spokeswoman said in an email, “In compliance with directives by governments around the world, we have been actively unwinding Russian business and have not been pursuing any new business in Russia.” Goldman was the first major Wall Street bank to announce the move early Thursday. The investment firm said, “We are focused on supporting our clients across the globe in managing or closing out pre-existing obligations in the market and ensuring the well-being of our people.” Rivian Reports Larger Than Expected Q4 Loss Rivian (RIVN) shares are falling 10.2% ahead of the open after reporting a steeper-than-expected loss in Q4. The electric vehicle maker reported an adjusted per share loss of $2.43 per share on $54 million in revenue. That was worse than analysts’ expectations for a loss of $1.97 per share on $60 million in revenue. The stock hit a new 52-week low at $39.77 in intraday trade Thursday. Rivian warned about continued supply chain struggles for production and a “slow start” to Q1. The company expects to deliver 25,000 vehicles this year after delivering nearly 1,000 in Q4. Docusign Slips on Weak Guidance DocuSign (DOCU) shares are tumbling 16.5% in premarket trade after the company issued weak fiscal 2023 guidance. The online document signing site reported fiscal Q4 adjusted earnings of $0.48 per share on $580.8 million in revenue. That was in line with analysts’ profit expectations and beat revenue forecasts for $562 million. DocuSign also announced a $200 million stock buyback. Shares slipped after guidance came in short. DocuSign forecast fiscal 2023 total revenue will range between $2.47 billion to $2.48 billion. Analysts had forecast full-year total revenue of $2.6 billion. Oracle Sinks on Earnings Miss Oracle (ORCL) shares are down 1.5% ahead of the open after a fiscal Q3 earnings miss. The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.13 per share on $10.51 billion in revenue. Analysts were looking for adjusted EPS of $1.18 on $10.51 billion in revenue. Oracle said its profits were dragged down by investments in gene-sequencing company Oxford Nanopore and Arm server chipmaker Ampere Computing. But the company remains optimistic about the future of those investments. Oracle said, “We remain confident that our investments in these two cutting-edge technology companies will deliver very strong returns.” Senate Passes Funding Bill The Senate passed the omnibus bill to fund the government through the end of the fiscal year. The legislation was approved in a 69-31 vote late Thursday night. It now heads to the President’s desk, avoiding a government shutdown tonight. The legislation includes $13.6 billion in humanitarian and security aid for Ukraine. In Case You Missed It U.S. inflation pressures hit a new 40-year high in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI rose 7.9% year-over-year last month vs 7.8% expected. Groceries prices rose 8.6%, gas prices jumped 38%, and used vehicle prices surged 41.2%. The core CPI rose 6.4% annually. Amazon (AMZN) logged its second-best day of 2022 Thursday as shares jumped 5.4%. The rally came after the tech giant announced a 20-for-1 stock split and $10 billion stock buyback program. The split is set to take effect in early June.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Inflation Is SCALDING Hot
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: -326 (-1%) SPX Futures: -42 (-1%) NASDAQ Futures: -172 (-1.3%) Good morning friends! Futures are lower after talks failed between Russia and Ukraine and the release of new hot inflation data. Let’s get right to it! Inflation Heats Up in February U.S. inflation pressures were scalding hot in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the consumer price index surged 7.9% year-over-year last month. That’s a fresh 40-year high and hotter than economists’ expectations for 7.8%. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.8% vs 0.7% expected. Energy prices continued to lead those gains with gas prices surging 38% year-over-year. Grocery prices also jumped 8.6% while used car and truck prices skyrocketed 41.2%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.5% monthly and 6.4% annually which was in line with expectations. Weekly Jobless Claims Rise Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week. The Labor Department reported 227,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. That was up 11,000 from the previous week and higher than expectations for 216,000. Continuing claims rose by 18,000 to 1.49 million vs 1.34 million expected. Oil Resumes Rally Oil prices are on the rise again today after falling on Wednesday. WTI crude futures are up 3.8% a nearly $113 per barrel with Brent crude futures up 4.1% to nearly $116 per barrel. WTI tumbled 12.5% Wednesday, settling at $108.70 per barrel. That was the largest single-day drop since November 26. Brent dropped 13% to $111.10 per barrel, the biggest one-day decline since April 2020. The drop boosted Wall Street on Wednesday with the S&P 500 logging its best day since June 2020. Russia-Ukraine Talks Fail Talks between Russia and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministers failed today. Russia’s Sergey Lavrov and Ukraine’s Dmytro Kuleba met for just 1.5 hours in Turkey. Kuleba said Moscow’s leaders “live in their own reality” after Lavrov attempted to deny Russian attacks on civilians at a hospital. The two sides failed to establish a 24 hour cease-fire or a humanitarian corridor in and out of the southern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. Amazon Announces 20-for-1 Stock Split Amazon (AMZN) is finally splitting its stock. The online retail giant announced after the market close Wednesday that the board has approved a 20-for-1 stock split. Amazon also said it will buy back $10 billion worth of stock. AMZN shares rallied in after-market trade and are up 4.3% ahead of the open. An Amazon spokesperson said, “This split would give our employees more flexibility in how they manage their equity in Amazon and make the share price more accessible for people looking to invest in the company.” The stock will split after the close on June 3 and trading will begin on a split-adjusted basis on June 6. Crowdstrike Pops on Earnings Beat, Strong Outlook CrowdStrike (CRWD) shares are surging 11.8% in premarket trade after issuing a strong outlook. The cybersecurity company reported fiscal Q4 adjusted earnings of $0.30 per share on $431 million in revenue. That beat analysts’ expectations for EPS of $0.20 on $411 million in revenue. And Crowdstrike’s forecast was way stronger than expected. The company expects fiscal Q1 adjusted earnings between $0.22 and $0.24 per share with revenue between $458.9 million to $465.4 million. Analysts had forecast EPS of $0.17 and revenue of $440.3 million. Crowdstrike forecast full-year earnings ranging from $1.03 to $1.13 per share on revenue of $2.13 billion to $2.16 billion. Wall Street was looking for EPS guidance of $0.90 and $2 billion in revenue. In Case You Missed It The House passed a $1.5 trillion omnibus spending bill Wednesday to fund the government through the end of the fiscal year. The final legislation did not include $15.6 billion in COVID relief Democrats had wanted but does include $13.6 billion in security and humanitarian aid for Ukraine. Congress is facing a Friday deadline to pass the bill to avoid a government shutdown. The House may pass a temporary spending plan to give the Senate more time to vote on the omnibus bill.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Oil Slips, Stocks Rally
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: +570 (+1.8%) SPX Futures: +80 (+1.9%) NASDAQ Futures: +320 (+2.4%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as commodity prices take a breather. Let’s get right to it! Oil Prices Cool Down Oil prices are falling as the market assesses the impact of the U.S. ban on Russian oil. The U.S. banned all Russian energy imports Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down more than 3% at just under $120 bbl while Brent crude futures have dropped 2.9% to $124 bbl. The head of the International Energy Agency said last week’s decision to release 60 million barrels of oil reserves was “an initial response” and more could be released if needed. Other commodity prices are also taking a breather after surging for the past week. Wheat futures are down 2.8% to $12.86 per bushel. Russia also announced a ceasefire in Ukraine today, allowing civilians to flee the country. Crypto Rallies on Executive Order Cryptocurrencies are rallying today after President Biden announced an executive order on digital assets. Bitcoin is up 8% to $42,025 with Ethereum rising 6.2% to $2,740. The global crypto market cap is up 6.5% to $1.92 trillion. Biden’s executive order aims to make sure the U.S. crypto industry is not left behind. It says, “The United States must maintain technological leadership in this rapidly growing space, supporting innovation while mitigating the risks for consumers, businesses, the broader financial system, and the climate.” It also directs the government to explore what’s needed for a central bank digital currency. Campbell Soup Earnings Beat Expectations Campbell Soup (CPB) shares are up 1% in premarket trade after beating fiscal Q2 profit expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.70 per share on $2.21 billion in revenue. That was compared to analysts’ expectations for adjusted EPS of $0.68 on $2.22 billion in revenue. Campbell Soup maintained its full-year guidance for earnings between $2.75 to $2.85 per share. Bumble Surges Despite Q4 Miss Bumble (BMBL) shares are surging 23.4% ahead of the open despite a wider-than-expected Q4 loss. The online dating company announced a loss of $0.08 per share on $208.2 million in revenue. That missed analysts’ expectations for a per share loss of $0.02 on $209.6 million in revenue. Total paying users rose 10.6% year-over-year to 3 million with average revenue per user jumping $2.81 to $22.83. Bumble forecast Q1 revenue between $207 million and $210 million with full-year revenue between $934 million and $944 million. Analysts were expecting $939.1 million for full-year revenue. Stitch Fix Slashes Guidance Stitch Fix (SFIX) shares are tumbling 21.6% in premarket trade after the company cut its full-year guidance. Stitch Fix reported a fiscal Q2 loss of $0.28 on $516.7 million in revenue. Analysts were expecting a loss of $0.28 per share on $514.8 million in revenue. But the company expects revenue to fall in fiscal Q3. Stitch Fix forecast net revenue between $485 to $500 million this quarter, which would be down as much as 10% year-over-year. The company also lowered its full-year guidance, expecting revenue to be flat or slightly lower compared to fiscal 2021. JOLTS Preview The Labor Department releases its January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS at 10:00 a.m. ET. The survey is expected to show the number of available jobs at the start of 2022 rose to 11 million from 10.9 million in December. That’s still outpacing the estimated 7.2 million people who were unemployed in January. U.S. businesses have struggled to fill open positions as the economy reopens. In Case You Missed It Apple (AAPL) unveiled several new products at its spring launch event Tuesday. Those include a new low-cost iPhone, new colors for the iPhone 13 and 13 Pro, a new iPad Air, a new Mac Studio computer, and a new Studio Display monitor. The new iPhone SE costs $429. It has 5G capability and Apple’s A15 processor.
Continue Reading -->5 Top ETFs for Day Traders
Day traders love ETFs. Why? Because ETFs allow traders to get market exposure fast with maximum liquidity. It’s true, you can’t buy the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. But you CAN buy shares of ETFs that track the performance of the major indexes. And there’s even some that track the Treasury bond market. So here are 5 top ETFs for day traders: Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) The Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) – often referred to as just “The Qs” – tracks the performance of the Nasdaq 100. That means this ETF has a large exposure to big tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (FB). The fund was launched by Invesco Capital Management in 1999. QQQ has an expense ratio of 0.20% and an average trading volume of more than 75 million shares. At writing, the fund had more than $180 billion in net assets. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is the largest ETF in the world and it tracks the performance of the S&P 500. The SPY was introduced by State Streets Global Advisors in January 1993 and was the first ETF ever listed in the U.S. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.09% and nearly $400 billion in net assets, at writing. SPY is extremely popular, with an average daily trading volume of more than 110 million shares. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks the performance of an index of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of 20 years or more. This is a way for traders to expose themselves to that type of investment without having to actually buy bonds. When Treasury yields rise, the stock market typically falls. Investing in a Treasury-linked ETF can be a way to make money in the market when that scenario is playing out. TLT has an expense ratio of 0.15% with over $16 billion in net assets, at writing. The fund has an average trading volume of more than 20 million shares per day. ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF (UPRO) The ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF (UPRO) is a leveraged fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500. This fund is 3x leveraged, meaning it aims for returns or losses 3x the performance of the S&P in a session. If the S&P rose 2% in a single-session, UPRO would rise roughly 6%. But it’s the same for a loss. If the S&P 500 lost 2% in a single-session, UPRO would fall roughly 6%. The fund was created in 2009 and had nearly $3 billion in net assets, at writing. UPRO has a high expense ratio at 0.91% and average trading volume of 12.5 million shares per day. Because this fund has a goal of tracking the S&P 500’s performance on a daily basis, it is not considered a long-term investment. The amount of index exposure, AKA how many assets are held by the fund, changes every day in order to maintain the 3x leverage ratio. Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) The Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) tracks the Russell 2000. This is an inverse leveraged ETF, which means it moves in the opposite direction of the RUSS 2K times 3. Buying an inverse ETF allows traders to profit from a falling market without having to short any stocks. If the Russell 2000 were to fall 1% in a session, the TZA ETF would hypothetically rise 3%. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.94% and more than $359 million in net assets, at writing. It has a daily trading volume of more than 21 million shares. If you’re looking for more sector-specific ETFs to trade instead, check out this post to learn about the 4 Top FinTech ETFs to watch!
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: U.S. Set to Ban Russian Oil
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: +51 (+0.2%) SPX Futures: +6 (+0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: -15 (-0.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are mixed as oil prices continue to spike and U.S. gas prices hit a new record high. Let’s get right to it! U.S. to Ban Russian Oil Oil prices are still rising after Bloomberg reported the U.S. is preparing to ban Russian oil imports. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 3.4% to $123.51 per barrel with Brent crude futures rising 3.9% to $127.96 per barrel. The Biden administration is expected to announce that oil ban today which would also include Russian liquefied natural gas and coal. President Biden is scheduled to speak at 10:45 a.m. ET. U.S. gas prices set a new all-time record today with AAA reporting the national average rose to $4.173 per gallon for regular. The previous record was $4.114 in July 2008. U.S. gas prices have risen 55 cents in the past week and 72 cents compared to a month ago. Wheat Prices Hit All-Time Record Wheat futures trading was halted for the seventh consecutive session as prices hit limit-up at $13.29 per bushel. That topped the previous record set in 2008. Agricultural experts say the world lost 30% of its wheat export capacity due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. January Trade Deficit Hits Record The U.S. trade deficit surged 9.4% in January to $89.7 billion. That was up $7.7 billion compared to December and higher than expectations for $87.3 billion. The increase came as imports rose 1.2% to $314.1 billion while exports fell 1.7% to $224.4 billion. The trade deficit was up 37.7% compared to January 2021. Tech Stocks Fall into Bear Market The Nasdaq officially closed in bear market territory Monday, falling 20.1% from its November 19 record high. It’s the largest drop for the tech-heavy index since the beginning of the pandemic. High-growth tech stocks have been pummeled this year, with Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) down nearly 39% YTD. And many large-cap tech stocks are in bear markets of their own. Tesla (TSLA) shares are down 29% from their last record, Amazon (AMZN) shares have pulled back 25% from their peak, Nvidia (NVDA) shares are off 35%, and Meta Platforms (FB) shares have plunged 46%. Apple Hosts Launch Event Today Apple (AAPL) shares are down 0.1% in premarket trade as the iPhone maker is set to host a launch event today. The tech giant is expected to unveil new lower cost iPhone and iPad models during today’s event. It is being live streamed from the company’s headquarters in Cupertino, CA at 10:00 a.m. PST. The company is also expected to announce the release date for its iOS 15.4 update at today’s event. Google Confirms Mandiant Acquisition Mandiant (MNDT) shares are down 3.1% after Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) confirmed it will buy the cybersecurity firm. The company’s shares surged more than 20% in the final 20 minutes of trade Monday following a report on that possibility, closing 16.1% higher. Google plans to pay $23 per share for Mandiant, making the deal worth $5.4 billion. The acquisition is expected to close later this year. This is part of Google’s efforts to expand its cloud computing division to compete with Microsoft’s (MSFT) Azure and Amazon (AMZN) Web Services. In Case You Missed It New York City lifted most of its Covid restrictions Monday as officials shift toward an endemic stage. The city will no longer require vaccinations for indoor activities, including dining in restaurants. The mask mandate was also lifted for NYC schools. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) shares surged 34.2% Monday after it was revealed GameStop (GME) chairman Ryan Cohen has a nearly 10% stake in the retailer. Through his investment firm, RC Ventures, Cohen sent a letter to Bed Bath’s board over the weekend, detailing his suggestions for restructuring. Those included a spinoff of the Buy Buy Baby stores and selling Bed Bath. The board responded saying it is considering his recommendations.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Metals and Semi Strategies
SPX futures are -37. The 4220 area is big support. If 4279 is reclaimed, maybe it relieves some pressure. We’ve lifted off the lows a bit as headline about negotiations come in.AMD still doesn’t act special because it’s just a tactical trade here and there depending on the day. See how it handles $106.80 today if tech gets a lift. NVDA remains trapped in a downtrend like most tech names. It’s just a tactical trade based on the day. Friday’s low to use is $224.82. GLD is still working higher. I put on a macro strategy in January to benefit from higher prices. It’s been my biggest swing long. It’s up again this morning after clearing $181.30 Friday. I’d trim some if I was in more than Tier #2. SLV is trending higher. My call spread is almost maxed out. My expiration is 3/18 and I need it to stay over $23.50. I’d trim some if I was in more than Tier #2.Positions Disclosure as of 3/7/2022 at 8:56 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Oil Soars to 13-Year High
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: -189 (-0.6%) SPX Futures: -22 (-0.5%) NASDAQ Futures: -86 (-0.6%) Good morning friends! Futures are lower as oil prices spike to new highs. Let’s get right to it! Oil Prices Hit 13-Year High Oil prices are still rallying as the war in Ukraine continues. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 3.5% at just under $120 per barrel while Brent crude futures are up nearly 4% to over $122 per barrel. That’s a cool down from Sunday evening when both hit the highest price since July 2008. WTI crude futures hit a high of $130.50 and Brent prices surged to $139.13. U.S. gas prices are surging alongside oil. Data from AAA shows the national average for a gallon of regular gas is now $4.065, the highest since 2008. Western officials are now considering a ban of Russian oil after previously refusing to do so. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN Sunday, “We are now talking to our European partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also sent a letter to her Democrat colleagues saying the lower chamber is “exploring strong legislation” to ban Russian oil imports. Energy stocks have been a bright spot amid the turmoil caused by rising oil prices. The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up 2.9% in premarket trade and has surged more than 41% YTD. Chevron (CVX) shares are up 1% with Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 0.5%. T3 Live’s weekly market sentiment survey shows traders feeling less bullish on oil. 65% of respondents said they believe oil prices will go up in the next 30 days, down from 76% last week. Wheat, Corn Prices Surge Oil isn’t the only commodity that has skyrocketed amid the war in Ukraine. For the fifth session in a row, Wheat futures trading was halted after hitting limit-up at $12.94 per bushel. Corn futures are also up 0.6% at 759¢ per bushel. Russia accounts for 17% and Ukraine accounts for 12% of the world’s wheat exports. Gold Pops Gold prices surged above $2,000 an ounce Sunday as traders flee to safer assets. The precious metal hit a peak of $2,005.20 per ounce, the highest price since August 2020. Prices have since pulled back, currently gold is up 0.6% at $1,978 an ounce. Gold prices surged 4.2% last week, the largest weekly gain since July 2020. Bed Bath & Beyond Soars Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) shares are skyrocketing 84.6% ahead of the open after GameStop’s (GME) Chairman revealed a large stake in the company. Ryan Cohen has a nearly 10% stake in Bed Bath & Beyond through his investment company RC Ventures. In a letter to the retailer’s board, Cohen said, “We believe Bed Bath needs to narrow its focus to fortify operations and maintain the right inventory mix to meet demand, while simultaneously exploring strategic alternatives that include separating Buybuy Baby, and a full sale of the company.” Bed Bath responded in a statement saying, “We will carefully review their letter and hope to engage constructively around the ideas they have put forth. 2021 marked the first year of execution of our bold, multi-year transformation plan, which we believe will create significant long-term shareholder value.” Cohen’s stake in the company makes him a top five shareholder in Bed Bath & Beyond. In Case You Missed It “The Batman” brought in the second-largest opening weekend haul amid the pandemic. The film raked in $128.5 million in ticket sales over the weekend, topping expectations for $110 million. It’s only the second film to top $100 million in sales on its opening weekend since March 2020, behind “Spider Man: No Way Home”.
Continue Reading -->Are Traders Bullish Enough on Oil?
Traders remain cautious towards risk assets like stocks, as judged by our latest sentiment survey. But what’s really interesting is that traders aren’t more bullish on gold and oil, given their recent big runs. Let’s jump in. IMPORTANT: when we reference “traders” in this article, we are specifically referring to T3 Sentiment Survey respondents. SPX: Traders Still Cautious Three weeks ago, bullish sentiment on SPX fell to 19% – by far the lowest reading we’ve ever had in our admittedly short 19 week history.It has since rebounded to 42%, but that is still a fairly bearish reading. Bitcoin Sentiment Off the Lows Bitcoin Sentiment was at record lows two weeks ago, and it has since bounced to 40%. That is definitely in the bearish category. Apple Optimism Growing… Optimism towards Apple grew for the third week in a row, hitting 45%. Again, that’s still in the bearish camp. Tesla Still Not Feeling Much Love Tesla (TSLA) sentiment is off the lows, but you definitely can’t say it’s a loved stock as just 36% of traders think it is going up. Gold Bullishness Falls Oddly enough, gold bullishness has fallen for weeks – even with the Ukraine-Russia war intensifying, and inflation going through the roof. Oil Sentiment Drops Oddly enough, oil sentiment has actually dropped in recent weeks, even with oil going straight up. Crude oil futures hit a shocking $130.50/barrel on Sunday evening to top off a parabolic move from the $90’s in late February. What Happens Now? Traders are still cautious on the market for good reason, including:The massive inflation spikeCentral banks pulling back accommodationThe conflict in UkraineThe overall crash in risky stocksBut sentiment has growth less bearish over the past few weeks. Now we’ll see if traders are being fooled.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Jobs Report Crushes Expectations
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: -215 (-0.6%) SPX Futures: -25 (-0.6%) NASDAQ Futures: -69 (-0.5%) Good morning friends! Futures are lower as the market digests new jobs data and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Let’s get right to it! Job Growth Surges in February The February jobs report crushed expectations. The Labor Department reported the U.S. economy added 678,000 jobs last month with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8%. That was better than economists’ expectations for 440,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.9%. The leisure and hospitality sector saw the strongest job growth in February, adding 179,000 workers. The total number of unemployed people in the U.S. fell to 6.3 million vs 5.7 million pre-pandemic. The labor force participation rate rose slightly to 62.3%, still lagging behind the 63.4% before Covid. Wage growth stalled in February, up 5.1% year-over-year vs 5.7% annual growth in January. The report also included revisions for January and December. Job growth in December was revised up by 78,000 to 588,000 while January’s data was revised higher by 14,000 to 481,000. Oil Prices Resume Rally Oil prices are back on the rise today after dipping on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for April rose back above $112 per barrel this morning while Brent crude futures for May topped $114 per barrel. Oil prices cooled Thursday following reports a revised Iran nuclear deal is close to complete. That agreement would allow Iran to sell more oil globally, which could relieve supply shortages caused by Russia. No formal sanctions have been imposed against Russian oil but analysts say the market is “self sanctioning”. With major oil companies refusing to buy Russian crude, demand has surged for both WTI crude and Brent crude. JPMorgan analysts say the avoidance of Russian oil could cause Brent crude prices to hit $185 per barrel by the end of this year. Wheat futures continued to surge today, with trading halted at $12.09 per bushel after hitting limit-up for the fourth day in a row. Corn futures are up about 3.7% at over 775¢ per bushel. Russia Attacks Europe’s Largest Nuclear Power Plant The EU’s top diplomat says “everything is on the table” when it comes to Russian sanctions. That includes energy sanctions after Russia attacked the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, which is located in Ukraine. A fire was extinguished at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and officials say there does not appear to be elevated radiation in the area. But the International Atomic Energy Agency says only one reactor is working at 60% capacity. The U.S. imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oligarchs and their families Thursday. The actions include “full blocking sanctions” on at least eight “elites” and visa restrictions on 19 Russian oligarchs and 47 of their family members and close associates. One of those targeted includes Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Press Secretary, Dmitry Peskov. JPMorgan analysts say economic sanctions will hurt Russia’s economy severely this year. The group now expects Russia’s GDP to contract 35% in Q2 and 7% for the full year. Gap Surges on Earnings Guidance Gap (GPS) shares are rallying 7.7% ahead of the open after issuing strong profit guidance. The retailer reported a Q4 loss of $0.02 per share on $4.53 billion in revenue. That was better than analysts’ expectations for a loss of $0.14 per share on $4.49 billion in revenue. Gap’s sales were still down 3% compared to 2019. The company forecast full-year adjusted earnings between $1.85 and $2.05 per share vs analysts’ expectations for $1.86. Strong Q4 Sales Boost Sweetgreen Sweetgreen (SG) shares are surging 18.7% in premarket trade after reporting earnings for the first time since its IPO in November. The salad chain reported a Q4 loss of $1.14 per share on $96.4 million in revenue. That was an improvement from the $2.49 per share loss in Q4 2020 and topped analysts’ expectations for $84.7 million in revenue. Sweetgreen forecast revenue between $100 million and $102 million this quarter and full-year revenue between $515 million and $535 million. Analysts were looking for 2022 revenue guidance of $513.1 million. In Case You Missed It Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed to Congress the bank will move forward with rate hikes in March. In two-days of testimony, Powell said the impact of the Ukraine war on the U.S. economy remains “uncertain”. But the Central Bank remains focused on inflation with a 0.25% rate hike expected later this month. Powell left the door open for larger rate hikes later this year if inflation remains more persistent than expected.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Could Iran Save Oil Prices?
Editor’s Note: Coffee With Greta is a FREE morning update from our newest contributor Greta Wall. Want to get it by email every day? Click here. ******** DJIA Futures: +82 (+0.2%) SPX Futures: +10 (+0.2%) NASDAQ Futures: +5 (+0.04%) Good morning friends! Futures are up slightly as traders continue to monitor the war in Ukraine. Let’s get right to it! Oil Prices Slip on Rumored Iran Deal UPDATE: CRUDE FUTURES JUST TURNED NEGATIVE AFTER A RUMORED U.S. DEAL WITH IRAN WHICH WOULD ALLOW IRAN TO EXPORT MORE OIL. This comes after West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading at a fresh 11-year high above $113 per barrel Brent crude futures were previously above $116 per barrel, the highest since August 2013. Wheat futures trading was halted at $11.30 per bushel after hitting limit-up for the third straight day. More U.S. Sanctions on Russia The jump in oil prices comes after the U.S. imposed additional sanctions on Russia and Belarus Wednesday. The White House said these sanctions “will severely limit the ability of Russia and Belarus to obtain the materials they need to support their military aggression against Ukraine, project power in ways that threaten regional stability and undermine global peace and security.” The actions also include export controls targeting Russia’s oil refining sector which the White House said could help degrade Russia’s “status as a leading energy supplier over time.” The Biden Administration said it’s not ready to sanction Russian oil as such a move would harm American consumers. Local officials confirmed the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson is the first major city to be captured by Russia. Kherson is a key port city along the Black Sea with a population of about 300,000. Russia continued its attacks on the capital city of Kyiv, the port city of Mariupol, and the northeast city of Kharkiv. Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week. The Labor Department reported 215,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. That was down 18,000 from the previous week and better than economists’ expectations for 225,000. It also marks the lowest weekly total since the beginning of this year. Continuing claims rose by 2,000 to 1.476 million vs expectations for a drop to 1.42 million. American Eagle Sinks on Profit Warning American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) shares are down 4.8% in premarket trade after warning profits will be hit by higher freight costs. The clothing retailer reported Q4 earnings of $0.35 per share on $1.51 billion in revenue. That was in-line with analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom line. Sales at the Aerie brand jumped 27% year-over-year while American Eagle brand sales rose 11%. The company forecast operating profit between $550 million and $600 million this year, lower than $603 million in 2021. American Eagle also warned earnings will fall in Q1 compared to 2021 due to rising freight costs and the 2021 boost from stimulus checks. Best Buy Shakes Off Q4 Miss Best Buy (BBY) shares are up 4.5% ahead of the open despite missing Q4 expectations. The retailer reported adjusted earnings of $2.73 per share on $16.37 billion in revenue. Analysts were expecting adjusted EPS of $2.73 on $16.6 billion in revenue. Best Buy forecast annual revenue of $49.3 billion to $50.8 billion, below analysts’ projections for $51.05 billion. The CFO said the company is expecting short term headwinds but demand will surpass pre-pandemic levels in the future. Best Buy hiked its quarterly dividend by 26%. Snowflake Plunges on Slowing Growth Snowflake (SNOW) shares are tumbling 19.5% in premarket trade after forecasting a slowdown in growth. The cloud software company reported a Q4 loss of $0.43 per share on $383.8 million in revenue. That beat analysts’ expectations for $373 million in revenue. Revenue grew 101% year-over-year, down from 110% growth in Q3. And Snowflake says that slowdown will continue. The company forecast revenue growth between 79% to 81% this quarter and 65% to 67% for the full fiscal year. Victoria’s Secret Issues Weak Outlook Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) shares are up 0.1% ahead of the open after beating Q4 expectations. The lingerie retailer reported earnings of $2.70 per share on $2.18 billion in revenue. Analysts had forecast EPS of $2.63 on $2.14 billion in revenue. But the company’s Q1 forecast was weak, citing supply chain issues, high inflation, and “the potential for consumer uncertainty with the recent global unrest.” Victoria’s Secret forecast Q1 sales between $1.43 billion and $1.5 billion. That would be a decrease of 4% to 8% compared to 2021 and is lower than analysts’ projections for $1.52 billion. The company expects Q1 EPS between $0.70 to $0.95 vs analysts’ estimates for $1.32. Powell Testifies in the Senate Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his semi-annual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 a.m. ET today. Today’s testimony is expected to largely reflect the comments Powell made in the House Wednesday. The Fed Chair told the House Financial Services Committee that the war in Ukraine presents “uncertain” challenges for the U.S. economy but the bank will move ahead with rate hikes. Powell said he expects the March hikes to be 0.25% but left the door open for larger rate hikes this year if inflation is persistently above their forecast. He said the Central Bank expects inflation to peak this year and then start cooling. The Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday showed more price increases are ahead. The report said businesses “expect additional price increases over the next several months as they continue to pass on input costs increases.” In Case You Missed It Ford (F) shares surged 8.4% Wednesday after the company announced it is separating operations of its traditional and electric vehicle businesses. The new EV division will be know as “Ford Model e” while the traditional division will be “Ford Blue”. The company plans to breakout financial results for both divisions by 2023. Ford plans to spend $5 billion on EVs this year, double the 2021 total. F shares are 1.8% higher in
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