Category Archives for Scott Redler
Netflix in Pain: Why I Don’t Take Stock Into Earnings
SPX futures are -4 as we see many F.A.N.G.-type names and other tech stocks getting hit on NFLX’ revenue and subscriber miss. The analysts had it right last week when they started talking down the sub estimates. Super high P/E stocks can’t go up 100%+ and then miss earnings. This situation is exactly why I don’t take stock into earnings. I use options since the risk is premium paid. I have no position and I’m proceeding carefully. It might be best to wait until tomorrow to see today’s candle to make a fresh plan. Let’s see if it puts in a 5-15-30-60 minute low. $343-$345 is an area to watch, and there is a big level to watch at $338ish.Since we’re talking F.A.N.G. names, yesterday I said this about AMZN: “If I was long it, I’d consider trimming because it’s a little extended here.” AMZN closed on the lows and it’s down with NFLX today. See if it holds $1795. If not, the 8 day is all the way down at $1763.Now let’s turn to the SPX. Futures are -5 as tech is under pressure from NFLX. Today, let’s see if we hold 2791. That could be difficult. If we break and say below, we have the 8 day at 2780ish, and then 2761 is a huge level. If NFLX can rally off a low, that may help things. Also, see if some flows go to banks or energy to help mute the weakness.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: What If the Analysts Are Wrong About Netflix?
Last week, I got stopped out in NFLX when it lost upper momentum at the $411 area. The stock is up 100% this year, and a few analysts are worried about European sub numbers causing a miss. I’m approaching this one cautiously. Today, let’s see how it handles the $395 pivot. Today, let’s see how it handles the $395 pivot. And after the earnings report hits, if the analysts are wrong and NFLX beats, $419-$423 is key resistance to clear. If the report is light, see how it handles the $380 area, or the 50 day down at $365. I’m watching potential options plays, but I’ll probably wait until around the close to do anything.HUYA is a very active name that’s been a favorite of RAA readers. Now, see if it holds $36.25 to keep momentum and stay special. BABA lost some momentum this past month on all the trade banter. It now has a lower-level wedge type pattern building. $189.30 is pivot support. To get some strength back, it has to get above $192.12. It’s a good name to watch for clues.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Is SPX 2800 on Tap? Tech May Hold the Answer
Can the SPX hit the 2800 mark again? Tech may hold the clues. The QQQ still acts well. $175.80 is our new pivot support to watch. A strong move and close over $178 could mean a charge to SPX 2800.Now let’s take another look at a IQ, a name we’ve focused on in the past few months. It came down from $46.23 to $30.20 and it’s trying to rebuild. I’m long a bit overnight. If it can get and say above $32-$32.40, it should open the door for a move to the $34 area and possible more.Now let’s look at IBB. IBB had a Red Dog Reversal on 6/28 and it has acted well very since then. Last Friday, it had a big pro gap on the BIIB news. And now it has a pretty impressive high-level bull flag. A move and hold above $117 can take it back to 2018 highs.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Can Netflix Stay Super Special?
Netflix (NFLX) still has best in breed status, but today we’ll really see if it can stay super special. To stay that way, it has to hold the $411 area. If not, it can hit $408 to fill the gap. I’ll be watching it closely on the open to see if it’s buyable.We’ll see if tech can help today after a move back to all-time highs. QQQ $175.80 is upper support. If this holds, the downside will be muted. If not, the $174 area will be key to watch. Tech will give us clues on the market so be mindful here.The President is pushing for tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, just as the SPX hit big resistance at 2800. Thank goodness this came after markets were up for 4-5 sessions and overbought, giving us signals to ligten up. Now we’ll see what areas hold for possible new longs. Holding 2760ish would be very constructive to hold for the next few sessions. We can’t rule out the 2745 area — under that and the active bulls lose control. Watch the small caps and tech today to see if they help pull the market off the lows.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Why I’m Not Crazy About This Open
On Friday, Apple (AAPL) reclaimed all moving averages on Friday as it cleared the $188 area. Yesterday, it hit a high of $190.68. See if it holds the gap pivot of $189.30 to keep some active upper commitment.As I said, on Thursday, tech gave clues that markets could be bought. QQQ’s cleared the lower-level pivot and filled the gap above $174 to show some power on Friday. Now see if it can hold $175.74 to work its way back towards $177.98.And let’s talk about Netflix (NFLX) since we focused on it so much last week. This was my favorite pattern. It broke above $400 and hit a high of $408.65 Friday, and today it’s up another $7. I trimmed some and will manage the rest. It’s in the game to hit all-time highs but might need to digest first.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: The Power of a Blown Right Shoulder
Last Thursday, tech and small caps gave clues that it was maybe time to “cheat long” heading into Friday’s jobs number and the institution of tariffs. Turns out traders sold the rumors and bought the actual news Friday. The right shoulder of what could have been a H&S pattern blew out to help ignite the upside. The index has room towards 2800 this week but I’m looking to be in trim & trail mode today.As I said, on Thursday, tech gave clues that markets could be bought. QQQ’s cleared the lower-level pivot and filled the gap above $174 to show some power on Friday. Now see if it can hold $175.74 to work its way back towards $177.98.And let’s talk about Netflix (NFLX) since we focused on it so much last week. This was my favorite pattern. It broke above $400 and hit a high of $408.65 Friday, and today it’s up another $7. I trimmed some and will manage the rest. It’s in the game to hit all-time highs but might need to digest first.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Netflix Puts on a Great Show, Let’s Keep Watching
On Monday, I said Netflix (NFLX) is one to watch now, and that “To keep its ‘go to’ status, it has to reclaim $390.55 in a sea of red.” It’s been choppy lately, but reclaimed that level and stairstepped with higher lows each day this week:It was on the stronger side this morning and is very tight. The stock hit a high of $405.60 to put me in trim & trail mode on my long. Even if you don’t trade NFLX, watch it because it can give clues on what’s next for tech and the markets overall. We’ve been able to buy vs. support but not add higher. If NFLX can stay above $400, perhaps it opens the door up for more momentum.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Netflix Is One to Watch Now
Netflix (NFLX) is a key name to watch now. It put in an island top with a few lower highs, which has us feeling more cautious. To keep its ‘go to’ status, it has to reclaim $390.55 in a sea of red. If not, I’d be careful because we have the 21 day at $382 below. If that doesn’t hold, it wouldn’t be good for tech and market psychology. Let’s turn to the QQQ’s. Tech was the place to be for most of the year. There were more reasons to be more cautious since there is an unfilled bear gap and 21 day resistance. Let’ see if new flows can come in to relieve the pressure. Last week’s low is the $169 area. Do we make a higher low? Revisit that low? Or break it this week? Be ready for each scenario with a plan.China is still a problem with the Shanghai 20% off the highs. Most of Europe is below the 200 day. There could be a mini Head & Shoulders pattern developing. So 2691-2700 will be key for this week. See if high-beta tech gets flows to help the morning weakness, and if third-quarter flows and typical holiday upside can relieve some pressure.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: When Signs of Trouble Add Up
I came in leaning short today for the first time in quite while. The bearish signals really started adding up last week. Last Thursday, I told Redler-All Access readers: We’ve had great action in tech, F.A.N.G. names, small caps and bios.But banks, other sectors, and overseas markets are a bit of a drag. It makes me wonder how long things can last. So I’ve cut my long exposure and I’m trying to be a bit more selective after a great move from the May 3-4 Red Dog Reversal low and igniting bar. It’s harder to find tight setups. I’m not saying we will crash but I’m tapping the brakes. I followed up this past Monday: Last Monday, I came in with 15-20 swing longs and options positions. Last week, I saw lots of signs to get flexible so I’m coming in lighter today. Yesterday, I told CNBC “the small caps for the first time in a while are weaker than other sectors. It’s giving traders some signs to pare down risk. And today, I came in with 2 equity shorts (NVDA which I covered premarket, and FB) Here’s how I’m viewing the action today. Today, I want to see how the market handles 2698. Do the sellers break that for an air pocket towards 2650? Or is there a Red Dog Reversal long opportunity?Tech became vulnerable last week with QQQ losing the 8/21 day. Then it got rejected on the rally back. Now let’s see how it handles the $169.61 pivot. $167 is bigger support below.FB’s lower high and Red Dog Reversal sell signal got me short yesterday. I want to see if it continues toward the 21 day. Yesterday’s low is $195.80. It’s below that premarket. Let’s see if it stays below.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: GOOGL Blasts to Record Highs
GOOGL’s done pretty well in the past few days with a big trip from $1085 this past month. I’ve been focused pretty heavily on it. This morning, I posted this chart saying that now it seems like it can see $1200+ if it gets and stays above $1185. As of 10:15 a.m ET, GOOGL is around $1196 and still looks good.FB has acted well since its power earnings gap. Yesterday it held the $194 area. If it continues, it seems like it will take out the $199.58 recent high to see $200+.Since we’re talking tech, let’s check out the QQQ’s. Today, let’s see if it holds $176. If not, it’s back to the choppiness.
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