Category Archives for Scott Redler
Scott Redler: What SPX, QQQ, & Apple Can Tell Us About the Market
This afternoon, Scott Redler appeared on TD Ameritrade’s ‘The Watch List,’ hosted by Nicole Petallides: In this video, Scott breaks down: -Why Scott is focused on technical analysis instead of opinions-The SPX’ wedge pattern, which signals indecision-The reason Scott likes the ‘tight pattern’ in the SPX-Why the bulls need to get above 2830-What it takes to get back to 2900+-The bears’ concerns like the inverted yield curve-What could happen following quarter-end ‘shenanigans’-The level that needs to hold-Why short-term traders need movement right now-Why the QQQ’s are important, and why they need to hold $176-What’s coming next for AAPL-Why Scott feels indecisive, and how his positions reflect that-What he does when the momentum trend breaks-The one thing Scott loves now (it’s not a stock!) Positions Disclosure: As of 3/28/2019 at 3:12 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long CGC, GOOGL
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: How NIO Became the Chosen One
In my 2019 Market Outlook Report, I named electric car maker Nio (NIO) — a.k.a. the Tesla (TSLA) of China — one of my top plays for 2019. When it comes to making trading calls, it’s easy to have 20/20 hindsight, so let’s go back to what I said word for word on page 39 of the report:Now, we almost did get that break of $6 right after I published the report. Nio touched a low of $6 on the dot on January 2 — kissing the danger zone down to the penny!But then it took off and finally broke over the 8/21/50 day in ate January, even getting to the $8 level from the 2019 Report:Let’s fast forward a little bit now. It closed strong last Friday, and on Saturday morning, I Tweeted that “it seems like $9.50++ happens in time.”Then on Monday when the stock gapped up on the 60 Minutes Show about China’s electric car industry:That morning, I told Redler All-Access readers “I trimmed some above $9.30” to lock in a nice gain. On Tuesday, there was just a tiny retracement toward Monday’s low before the stock shot up again to hit a new all-time high at $10.64 — passing that $9.50 mark with authority. Wow!Yesterday at 11:52, when NIO was around $10.54, I tweeted on our Private feed that I was smaller in it, but would stay with some to track it:Then this morning, I told Redler All-Access readers “I trimmed some NIO above $10 and I’ll buy dips selectively.” And here’s the chart I posted to the Redler All-Access Private Twitter, saying “now it needs some time to consolidate” though “I do not think yesterday’s high will be the 2019 high.” I’ll be tracking NIO closely to see when I can add to it for that all-time high push (if it happens, of course) You can follow along as I share my plans to handle NIO in Redler All-Access — plus dozens of other hot names. Many people think I only trade big cap tech… but check out my disclosure to see what I’ve been working with lately: Positions Disclosure: As of 2/27/2019 at 10:25 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long GERN, ZYNE, CRBP, CGC, BAC, BAC, NIO, GS, PBI calls, TLRY calls; wasshort SPY
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Apple Pie: When Low Expectations Get Surpassed
One of the big market stories earlier in the year was Apple’s (AAPL) big guide down on January 2. That led to a big mystery – whether expectations were low enough ahead of the January 29 earnings print. I took calls into the report because I thought the stock could clear $159 if it was just in-line. With calls, I had defined risk. I don’t take stock into earnings because of the open-ended risk.AAPL was deemed ‘good enough’ and the stock gapped up big on 1/30. The 1/30 low of $160.23 became the spot to trade against for new longs. That level needed to hold to keep the move intact.AAPL then held higher and formed a bull flag over $169, which was another opportunity to add:With the big up move, I’ve been trimming stock and I turned my calls into a spread. This is when we manage the trade with a Tier system. Looking forward, there’s a chance the stock can work to $183ish in time. But as always, we’ll take it day by day in Redler All-Access, as we’re doing with dozens of names each day. (sign-up info below)Positions Disclosure: as of 2/5/19 at 10:14 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long NIO, CRBP, FB, TWTR, NBEV, IQ, BAC, ETSY, TWTR calls, SPY puts, AAPL calls; is short SPY, AAPL calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Anatomy of the Great Post-Christmas Rally
The big rally off the 12/26/2018 low at 2346 wasn’t easy to predict. But, understanding some basic trading concepts could have helped you catch some of the move. And they help you understand why I held multiple longs through this period (with some short hedges here and there for protection). Or at least, traders could have stood aside instead of stubbornly shorting. So let’s break down the movie step-by-step. On 12/26, the SPX broke below the 12/24 low at 2351. It hit 2346 and reclaimed 2351 for a Red Dog Reversal. The index then closed at the highs of the day.But one day’s never enough. On 12/27, the SPX held the 50% retracement, which confirmed the Red Dog Reversal.Then on Friday 1/4, the index broke above the 8 day with authority when Powell got ‘flexible.’The next trading day was 1/7, a Monday. We had another up day, showing more commitment to the move.The index then held above the 8/21 day before breaking over a bull flag. That led to a nice rally to the 2670 high.So what’s next? On Friday, I told CNBC the following: “At this point, if you haven’t bought the market this year, it’s not the most prudent thing to do to chase it today. At the same time, being short is frustrating.” And today’s down day (1/22) is the first time in a while that a shallow dip hasn’t been bought. I’ve already taken down risk. Now, the key level to watch is Friday’s 2647 low. A close below that could mean a test of 2590-2625. Positions Disclosure: as of 1/22/2019 at 12:14 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler was long CRBP, TWTR, SPY puts, AMRN calls; was short SPY
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Reality Bites Apple, and What Could Happen Next
Yesterday after the close, Apple (APPL) gave a sales warning to give traders a big scare on the second day of trading in the New Year. The headlines are what you might expect:But how much of a surprise is this really? Dozens of analysts have been cutting numbers, suppliers have been warning of weak demand, and of course, the stock’s way off the $233.47 October high. Now, I’ve been called an Apple (AAPL) permabull for years, but this is what I said in my 2019 Market Outlook Report:This was the first time in years I didn’t list Apple as a buy right off the bat. As I wrote, “there’s still serious news risk with Apple, especially given that the trade war with China is unresolved.” And the trade war did just take a major toll on Apple earnings, and the stock is deep in the hole. As I write this, Apple is around $144, so it’s in a much more interesting spot, and it’s time for some fresh analysis. It’s below the $146.59 December low. To relieve pressure — and get ‘the elevator’ going back up, it has to reclaim that level. If it stays below $146.59, next support is in the $140.40 area. Here’s my updated chart for this morning:Now we’ll see if it can make a low in the first 5-15-30-60 minutes to try to fill some of the gap. Or, does it grind down all day? Pay close attention to which scenario plays out. Since we’re on the topic of tech, let’s check out a QQQ chart too.I’m watching $150-$150.88 today. If that holds, it shows that traders aren’t extrapolating Apple to the rest of tech. If it fails… then watch out! For more of my analysis for 2019 and my top picks (including my short ideas for this year), click right here to check out the 2019 Market Outlook Report.Positions Disclosure: As of January 3, 2019 at 9:32 a.m.. ET, Scott J. Redler is long GE, FB, SPY, TWTR, IWM, BAC
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Multiple Scenario Analysis Ahead of the Mid-Terms
We’re ahead of the biggest political event since the 2018 Presidential election. It seems like a Democrat House and Republican Senate would be equities friendly. And as long as we hold the SPX 2700 area, I’ll be positioned for it to clear 2756 for a move back towards 2816-2840. But if that rally happens, don’t rush to buy into bull hype too quickly. Seasonality and buybacks may be on the bulls’ side, but there’s a bigger pattern to worry about. (more on this below) If the Democrats take the House and Senate, volatility probably spikes. A close of below 2700 would probably mean a retest of 2603. As you can see on the micro chart below, an inverse head & shoulders may be setting up. The election results may dictate if the pattern resolves up, or if the right shoulder gets broken for that 2603 retest.Now let’s look at a more intermediate-term chart. If 2603 gets lost, traders will start worrying about a trip to 2560 – 2580, and a rougher road to end 2018 and start 2019. Now let’s take a look at the big macro chart. This is why I said we can’t too easily buy into a giant year-end rally. A rally from here could complete the right shoulder into 2800-2840, making 2600ish the neckline. If this pattern triggers to the downside and the neckline breaks, the measured move points to 2300 — which could be a 2019 storyPositions Disclosure: As of November 6, 2018 at 10:33 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler is long FB, AAPL, SPY, IWM
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Using Multiple Scenarios to Find a Path Forward
We came in facing some ugly headlines this morning:At times like this, I try to avoid marrying an opinion. I let the price action guide me, because price is how we get paid. I came in today focused on SPX 2710 (the October low prior to today), telling CNBC’s Patty Domm “it could be bullish if it breaks below and then reclaims it and has a strong finish. Early this morning, I showed in a chart how holding above 2710 could mean the market puts in a 2X/W bottom:And I laid out three equivalent scenarios in SPY to Redler All-Access readers before the open: A) $270.36 is the 10/11 low. We hold above it and try and rally.B) We get and stay below $270.36 to probe to the downside with another leg lower. $268.49 is below, then $265.15.C) We get below $270.36 and then reclaim it for a Red Dog Reversal-type bounce attempt. Then, I’m free to react to the scenario that plays out, instead of locking myself into an opinion beforehand. Now let’s go to the chart to see what actually happened:As you can see on the chart, the SPX plunged at the open and made a new October low of 2691.43. But then it rebounded back above 2710 to 2746. (as of the afternoon)SPY broke below $270.36 and reclaimed it, and it’s now over $274. Let this be a lesson: don’t get locked into an opinion to the point where you can’t react to what’s happening. Keep multiple possible scenarios on your radar so you can grab opportunities as they come. Positions Disclosure: As of October 23, 2018 at 2:46 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler is long SPY, CRBP, TWTR calls, FB calls, CAT calls, GWPH Calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Amazon’s Second Trip to $2000+
On August 30, we connected the dots on AMZN’s first trip to $2,000+. The stock made a trip down to $1,865 on Monday before a second trip above $2,000 today. Let’s look at it chart by chart. On Monday, AMZN reclaimed the 50 day fast and put in a Red Dog Reversal signal. I got long around $1904ish. On Tuesday morning, I noted that it needed a high-volume close above $1957.It then cleared $1957, breaking above the wedge, to hit $1975. Since it was up on day #3 by this time, I trimmed so I can add back if it wanted to rest. I also noted next resistance is $1993-$2008.And finally, AMZN put in two more up days to hit $2010+ — right above my resistance range.This is a good example of why I take an “if-then” approach to trading. I don’t just blindly buy based on patterns — I want confirmation of a move based on my levels before I commit.Positions Disclosure: As of September 28, 2018 at 12:33 p.m. ET, Scott J. Redler is long CDTI, CRBP, NIO, TWTR, AAPL, BA, XLE, NFLX, IBM calls, NFLX calls
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: Tracking Big Tech Red Dog Reversals
Let’s take a fresh look at the action in tech. Yesterday, the QQQ’s got hit early but held the 50 day with a low at $181.30. It rallied and went green to outperform yesterday, which was good to see. As long as the 50 day holds, it is hard to get too bearish here. Let’s drill down to some individual names, starting with Nvidia (NVDA). Yesterday, there was a nice Red Dog Reversal buy signal around the $262.11 pivot. It also reclaimed the 50 day to close on the highs of the day. I’d probably look to trim it into the $270 area if I was long, but it has a little more room to $273.We saw a similar move in Amazon (AMZN). It sliced the 50 day fast at $1894 before reclaiming it. I’m looking to trim some this morning and hold some because there is a chance it gets better and resolves the range higher. But it really needs a high volume close above $1957 for that.Now let’s turn to Apple (AAPL). It started on the weaker side yesterday but reclaimed $217.29 pretty fast. I bought some lower yesterday. Now we’ll see if we can actually add higher. It would be good for tech if it can get above $222.50 and hold above it.Netflix (NFLX) as kind of an odd-looking inverse head & shoulders pattern. It reclaimed the 8/21 day yesterday to get me long. Now it would be healthy to clear $377 for upside. But for that to happen, it needs to get and stay above $373.64 first.Positions Disclosure: As of September 25, 2018 at 10:54 a.m. ET, Scott J. Redler is long FEYE, CGC, FB, BAC, NFLX, XLE, AMZN, IBM calls, GWPH calls
Continue Reading -->AMZN: Connecting the Dots on the Road to $2,000+
Amazon (AMZN) has been a big winner for Redler All-Access in the past couple of weeks as it woke up around the $1875ish area to finally break $2,000 today. If you read my 2018 Market Outlook Report back in December or January, maybe you saw my Amazon $2,000 call:I closed out the last of my recent swing long this morning, but let’s go back and see how we connected the dots in Redler All-Access. Monday 8/27 Chart AMZN wasn’t leading the market last week, but it looked ready to get back in the game. We had a potential wedge-type pattern with one of the best companies on the planet. I was long and looking to add if it could get above $1,919, then $1,925. I thought that if it could close above $1,925, then $1,950-$2,000+ would be next. Tuesday 8/28 Chart On Tuesday, AMZN was up $8-9 in the morning so I trimmed some. However, I wanted to stay with some because $1,950-$2,000 was possible for this week.Wednesday 8/29 Chart On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley put a $2,500 target on AMZN, which had the stock gapping up nicely above the descending trendline. I said that $2,000 could be a magnet in the sessions ahead, and AMZN managed to reach $1,998.69 on Wednesday.Thursday 8/30 Chart I sold the last of my AMZN long after the open today. After the big move from the $1,900 area, it felt more like a scalp than swing long. It hit $2,025+. Hopefully it sets up again for move to the $2058 area to celebrate the $1 trillion market cap milestone.
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