Category Archives for Sami Abusaad
Have We Hit the Long-Term Bottom?
The QQQ has hit a bottom, and Sami’s taking it as the long-term bottom for now due to the multiple green bars after a big drop. What signals would make him change his mind? And how is the upturn affecting his trade ideas for the week? In this video, Sami explains: – Why it hurts to watch healthcare stocks – How CAH differs from other stocks in its sector – Which stock ITOS reminds him of – What surprises him about JBHT – Where M could be heading
Continue Reading -->When Will the Market Bottom Out?
The market doesn’t seem to have hit a bottom yet, but it’s on it’s way downward and looks like it will hit Sami’s next support area. What has to happen before you start looking at the support area after that? In this video, Sami explains: – How CRWD differed from QQQ last week – What he doesn’t like about DDS – The mistake he made on DTE – Which chart he prefers for EPAM – How to find a transition A breakout in MULN
Continue Reading -->Signs of a Recession?
The market had a significant drop last week, and Sami believes that if Thursday’s low doesn’t hold, we could be in for a recession. But knowing exactly where we go from here is a different story. Find out what Sami’s watching in the week ahead. In this video, Sami explains: – The number one pattern showing up on charts right now – Why CIEN looks different from other stocks – Which name he thinks is going to the moon – The oil stocks that are looking bullish – How his bearish idea list compares to his bullish list
Continue Reading -->QQQ vs. SPY vs. IWM
Welcome to this week’s Swing Trade Game Plan: Sami goes over: What a downtrend is Why the QQQ looks bearish The difference with SPY and IWM Which index ETF is holding up best The overall bias this week The 13 names Sami likes now The 8 names Sami believes can drop So jump in and get your game plan!
Continue Reading -->What Would it Take to Be Bullish?
The market has consistently had lower highs and lows since December, culminating in bearish moves at the end of last week after it had tried to move higher. How has that affected Sami’s view of the market? Could another move higher changes his sentiment? In this video, Sami explains: – What AA and CF reveal about the agricultural sector – How the oil stocks on his watch list compare – Which stock is a possible hedge against a market selloff – Why it’s not too late to play NVCT – Why he has a hard time finding a stop in ETSY
Continue Reading -->The Bearish Breaking Point
Figuring out the bias of the market this week should be pretty clear, at least according to Sami. What level is he watching for, and how does that tell him whether or not the market is bearish? In this video, Sami explains: – What an hourly chart shows for ADGI – How many ideas he’s planning on taking this week – Which group of stocks is very bullish – Why DAC may be headed towards all-time highs – What kind of breakout can be found in MDRX
Continue Reading -->Where is QQQ Going Next?
Last week Sami mentioned that support for QQQ would be at 350. At the start of this week, QQQ is already at support, but that doesn’t mean that it’s going to hold. Find out where he thinks the market is heading next and when it might get there. In this video, Sami explains: – What’s so difficult about Bitcoin – Why this week is harder to predict – Where to place targets for DOGZ – Which pattern can be found in GFI – How OVV compares to USO
Continue Reading -->Sami Abusaad on the Trading Nut Podcast
Want to get to know Sami Abusaad? Then watch his appearance on the Trading Nut Podcast: Sami goes over: The HUGE loss that drive him to get a real trading education How he got started in the industry What it really takes to succeed Why your personality matters HUGE when it comes to being profitable Where people go wrong in trading And MORE!
Continue Reading -->The Selloff Shock
The market had a selloff last week, which not even Sami saw coming initially. What finally tipped him off? And how should you play the market this week based on your sentiment? In this video, Sami explains: – What he thinks will happen in QQQ – How CSCO is faring 22 years after the top of the tech bubble – Which name has carried over from last week – How market activity would affect his ideas for the week – The open position that still looks good to short
Continue Reading -->What Is the Best Month for Stocks?
What Is the Best Month for Stocks?April is the best month of the year for the stock market, based on S&P 500 data since 1980. The S&P 500 rises 2.0% in April on average, higher than any month. The S&P 500 has also been up in 31 of the 42 last Aprils, or 74% of the time. That is the highest percentage of all months. Wilshire 5000 data also supports this notion. S&P 500 Returns By Month Since 1980 Month of the YearAverage SPX Return % Positive MonthsJanuary 1.0% 60% February 0.2% 62% March 0.8% 62% April 2.0% 74% May 0.9% 69% June 0.3% 62% July 1.0% 52% August 0.2% 60% September -0.7% 48% October 1.2% 64% November 1.8% 71% December 1.3% 73% Data Source: Investing.com April also has another unique distinction – the smallest maximum loss. In April 2002, the S&P 500 fell -6.1%, so the worst April was better than the worst of all other months. And What Is the Worst Month for Stocks?September is the worst month for stocks, with a -0.7% average decline since 1980. That makes September the only month of the year that is negative on average. The S&P 500 has risen in just 20 of the last 42 Septembers, so it was up only 48% of the time. Again, that is the worst performance among all months.Those are the simple answers. Now let’s complicate things.The Challenge With Monthly Return DataAnalyzing monthly stock market returns may seem like a simple Excel exercise. However, it is fraught with challenges, like deciding how far to go back, especially since index composition changes so much over time. There’s also the question of whether this data is even valuable. A monthly return is simply the percentage change between one month’s closing price and the next. Are you making buys and sells exactly on the close of each month, with no activity in between?There are plenty of other more important factors affecting your returns, including:Whether you are long or shortYour mix of asset classes like stocks, bonds, crypto currencies, and other assetsThe individual stocks, ETFs, and cryptos you ownThe overall market environmentYour holding timeWhen you choose to buy or sellTaxes and trading commissionsNonetheless, let’s take a deep dive and see what we can learn from average monthly stock market return data.The Best and Worst Months for the Nasdaq Composite, Wilshire 5000, and Russell 2000.The biggest problem when asking “what is the best month for stocks?” is that you need to ask a second question: “which stocks are you talking about?”So to determine whether April is really the best month for stocks, we looked at three other major indices: the Wilshire 5000, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000.Next, let’s look at the Wilshire 5000, the broadest index of US companies.The Wilshire’s, best month is April with an average return of +1.9%, and it’s worst month is September.The Nasdaq’s the best month is actually January with an average +2.3% return, though the worst month is September, just like the S&P and Wilshire.For the Russell 2000, the best month is December, with an average return of +2.6%. And the worst is August with an average return of -0.3%.You can see all the numbers in this table. The best months are outlined in green with the worst months in red. Average Monthly Returns By Index Month of the YearSPX Wilshire 5000 Nasdaq Composite Russell 2000January 1.0% 1.2% 2.3% 0.7% February 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.2% March 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% April 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% May 0.9% 1.0% 1.4% 1.2% June 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% July 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% -0.2% August 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% -0.3% September -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.1% October 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 0.2% November 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.1% December 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 2.6% Data Sources: Investing.com, Yahoo Finance! Please Note: our Russell 2000 data only goes back to 1988, while our S&P 500, Wilshire 5000, and Nasdaq numbers go back to 1980. Still, we believe this is more than enough data to support the idea that April is the best month for stocks. Is November the Best Month for Stocks?Many investors argue that November is the best month for stocks. But the Wilshire 5000 is the broadest measure of the US market, and it points to April as being the strongest month. But arguing over “best” may be silly because the data suggests that different types of stocks do better at different times of year. And we’re not talking about huge differences anyway.Why Not Focus on the Median?If we go by median monthly returns, November actually becomes the best month for stocks. But average returns make more sense because investing returns are heavily impacted by statistical outliers, which would be excluded when using the median.Now let’s go through some of the more interesting individual findings.October Stock Market Returns – The Weird Thing We NoticedThe S&P 500 was positive in 27 of the last 42 Octobers, with an average return of +1.6%.The two worst months for the S&P 500 since 1980 were:-21.8% in October 1987, when we had the Black Monday crash-16.9% in October 2008 during the housing meltdownExcluding these months, the S&P 500 has been up on average of 2.2% each October. So outside of generational disasters, October is generally an outstanding month. S&P 500 October Returns Since 1980 All OctobersOctobers Minus the 2 Outliers+1.6% +2.2% Data Source: Investing.com And that brings us to another point regarding monthly returns. There is a great deal of chance involved, and one or two generational outliers can dramatically impact the numbers. Does One Month Mean Anything for the Next?The stock market on average returns +0.84% per month.After an up month, the market returns an average of +0.86%.And after a down month, the market is up an average of +0.82%.So one month doesn’t seem to mean much for the next, with one exception that we found:What About the January Effect?December may have a small impact on January.After positive Decembers in the S&P 500, January has been up 74% of the time with an average return of +1.2%.That’s a slight increase from the overall January average
Continue Reading -->